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Prediction markets for Gill

Will there be a Dyson Sphere around the Sun before 2100?

Dec 26, 6:00 PMMar 2, 10:59 PM

18%chance

8121782

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1012

839

Will there be a Dyson Sphere around the Sun before 2070?

Dec 17, 11:18 AMMar 3, 10:59 PM

11%chance

6418127

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1198

950

Will there be a Dyson Sphere around the Sun before 2030?

Dec 22, 2:21 PMMar 1, 10:59 PM

1%chance

5515121

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4270

898

Will there be a Dyson Sphere around the Sun before 2090?

Dec 19, 1:05 PMMar 3, 10:59 PM

18%chance

5010653

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1010

854

Will there be a Dyson Sphere around the Sun before 2080?

Dec 18, 12:31 PMJan 5, 10:59 PM

11%chance

4810172

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1291

935

Will there be a Dyson Sphere around the Sun before 2040?

Dec 21, 3:04 PMMar 1, 10:59 PM

3%chance

479134

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1725

938

Will there be a Dyson Sphere around the Sun before 2110?

Dec 29, 12:05 AMMar 1, 10:59 PM

20%chance

248933

OptionVotes

YES

NO

229

141

Will there be a Dyson Sphere around the Sun before 2050?

Dec 20, 11:09 AMJan 21, 10:59 PM

8%chance

387083

OptionVotes

NO

YES

980

836

Will there be a Dyson Sphere around the Sun before 2060?

Dec 15, 9:37 PMMar 1, 10:59 PM

11.03%chance

496365

OptionVotes

NO

YES

965

911

Who will win a Nobel Prize before 2030? [Unlinked free response]

Oct 10, 5:21 AMJan 2, 6:59 AM

272816

OptionProbability

Omar M. Yaghi

Susumu Kitagawa

Daron Acemoglu

Demis Hassabis

Jun Ye

Peter Zoller

Gilles Brassard

Charles Henry Bennett

Robert S Langer

Olga Botner

Can Xue

Krzysztof Matyjaszewski

Elizaveta 'Monetochka' Gyrdymova

Ed Boyden

Peter Shor

David Deutsch

Chi-Huey Wong

William Jorgesen

Salman Rushdie

Charles Leonard Bennett

Jean Fréchet

Charles L. Brooks III

Haruki Murakami

Michele Parrinello

Roberto Car

Volodymyr Zelenskyy

AI

Thomas Piketty

Omar Farha

100

100

99

99

70

50

46

45

45

43

41

41

41

41

40

38

36

35

34

34

34

29

18

17

17

17

9

5

4

Winner of NJ11 Democratic Primary in June 2026?

Feb 6, 4:40 AMJun 2, 11:59 PM

3402

OptionProbability

Analilia Mejia

Tom Malinowski

Brendan Gill

Tahesha Way

Other

91

5

1

1

1

Tarek Rahman will loose on his own seat in upcoming Bangladesh National election

Feb 7, 11:53 PMJan 11, 11:59 PM

45.25%chance

125

OptionVotes

YES

NO

110

91

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