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Prediction markets for Gill

Will there be a Dyson Sphere around the Sun before 2100?

Dec 26, 6:00 PMMar 2, 10:59 PM

19%chance

8221812

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1023

793

Will there be a Dyson Sphere around the Sun before 2070?

Dec 17, 11:18 AMMar 3, 10:59 PM

11.36%chance

6518150

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1161

955

Will there be a Dyson Sphere around the Sun before 2030?

Dec 22, 2:21 PMMar 1, 10:59 PM

1%chance

5616610

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4270

898

Will there be a Dyson Sphere around the Sun before 2080?

Dec 18, 12:31 PMJan 5, 10:59 PM

14.13%chance

5010931

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1011

975

Will there be a Dyson Sphere around the Sun before 2090?

Dec 19, 1:05 PMMar 3, 10:59 PM

19.53%chance

5110766

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1026

785

Will there be a Dyson Sphere around the Sun before 2040?

Dec 21, 3:04 PMMar 1, 10:59 PM

7.2%chance

479484

OptionVotes

NO

YES

986

723

Will there be a Dyson Sphere around the Sun before 2110?

Dec 29, 12:05 AMMar 1, 10:59 PM

22.55%chance

278962

OptionVotes

YES

NO

206

148

Will there be a Dyson Sphere around the Sun before 2050?

Dec 20, 11:09 AMJan 21, 10:59 PM

9.29%chance

397251

OptionVotes

NO

YES

991

718

Will there be a Dyson Sphere around the Sun before 2060?

Dec 15, 9:37 PMMar 1, 10:59 PM

11.03%chance

496365

OptionVotes

NO

YES

965

911

Who will win a Nobel Prize before 2030? [Unlinked free response]

Oct 10, 5:21 AMJan 2, 6:59 AM

272961

OptionProbability

Omar M. Yaghi

Susumu Kitagawa

Daron Acemoglu

Demis Hassabis

Jun Ye

Salman Rushdie

David Deutsch

Peter Zoller

Gilles Brassard

Charles Henry Bennett

Robert S Langer

Olga Botner

Can Xue

Krzysztof Matyjaszewski

Elizaveta 'Monetochka' Gyrdymova

Ed Boyden

Peter Shor

Chi-Huey Wong

William Jorgesen

Charles Leonard Bennett

Jean Fréchet

Charles L. Brooks III

Volodymyr Zelenskyy

Tao Zhang

Haruki Murakami

Michele Parrinello

Roberto Car

Anthony A. Hyman

AI

Thomas Piketty

Omar Farha

100

100

99

99

70

53

53

50

46

45

45

43

41

41

41

41

40

36

35

34

34

29

29

20

18

17

17

13

9

5

4

What will Karam Gill's 2027 JMO index be

Jun 27, 4:21 PMFeb 5, 11:06 PM

8909

OptionProbability

250-269

<250

270-289

290-309

310-329

330-349

350+

Other

44

36

3

3

3

3

3

3

Tarek Rahman will loose on his own seat in upcoming Bangladesh National election

Feb 7, 11:53 PMJan 11, 11:59 PM

45.25%chance

125

OptionVotes

YES

NO

110

91

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