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Prediction markets for GitHub

Will the GitHub Copilot Litigation Succeed?

Dec 8, 2:52 AMDec 7, 5:00 AM

10.08%chance

12410434

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4399

1460

Will there be a major decentralized GitHub competitor before 2031?

Jun 2, 7:22 PMMar 5, 10:59 PM

33.39%chance

273061

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1413

708

Will GitHub Continuous Integration accept SNARKs by 2028?

Mar 29, 3:25 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

10.33%chance

412262

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1631

868

Will Typescript overtake JavaScript as the most popular language in GitHub by 2030?

Dec 27, 8:22 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

30%chance

472111

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1055

816

Will GitHub release an assistant, similar to Copilot, able to insert comments in code by 2028?

May 27, 10:11 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

78.99%chance

101948

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1939

516

In 2028, will programmers usually be able to use GitHub Copilot and similar tools in interviews?

Dec 25, 10:03 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

29.88%chance

341153

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1230

862

Quantum programming language enters GitHub's or Stack Overflow's Top 10 before 2029

Apr 21, 9:20 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

7%chance

12739

OptionVotes

YES

NO

364

27

How many stars will Manifold reach on Github in 2026?

Jan 7, 7:49 PMDec 31, 5:59 AM

6422

OptionProbability

500-750

Other

1000-1250

750-1000

<500

56

14

13

12

5

Over the next five years, what percent of GitHub code will be authored by an AI agent?

May 20, 2:41 AMJan 1, 3:32 AM

5308

OptionProbability

2030

2029

2027

2028

2026

59

37

28

28

19

Will GitHub support IPv6 for cloning by the end of 2026?

Dec 29, 7:54 PMDec 31, 11:00 PM

41.7%chance

7225

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1182

846

If Manifold's right to use code submitted to their Github is challenged in court, will they win?

Nov 22, 7:56 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

78.99%chance

798

OptionVotes

NO

YES

188

102

New GitHub CEO announced by end of March 2026?

Jan 22, 5:45 PMMar 31, 11:59 PM

21.69%chance

490

OptionVotes

YES

NO

190

53

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