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Prediction markets for Giving Block

Will we find that the dark forest theory of the universe is true?

Mar 25, 3:20 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

5.32%chance

1420948

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1438

927

Will the proposed 5,000$ per child tax credit be signed into law before November 7 2028?

Aug 18, 2:06 PMDec 2, 6:59 AM

19.12%chance

1211085

OptionVotes

YES

NO

18565

6494

Which Rocket Launches Next?

Feb 15, 3:54 AMApr 1, 3:59 AM

164826

OptionProbability

SLS (Artemis II)

Starship (Flight 12)

New Glenn (Blue Bird Block 2)

Vulcan (GPS III SV10)

47

26

25

2

What will be the Warner Discovery situation by 2027 Q2?

Dec 17, 1:40 PMJun 30, 1:27 PM

124498

OptionProbability

Acquired by Paramount

Purchase stalled bureaucratically

None of the above

Acquired by Netflix

Bankrupt proceedings initiated

77

9

8

3

3

Purchased Kindle eBooks censored or blocked before 2030.

Jun 18, 7:52 AMJan 1, 3:59 PM

67.44%chance

231465

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1439

695

If a huge alignment effort is part of the reason for AI having an okay outcome, will it involve a new AI paradigm?

Feb 26, 12:38 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

58.05%chance

4265

OptionVotes

NO

YES

637

368

If AI has an okay outcome because of a huge alignment effort, where did AI progress stall out?

Mar 17, 3:52 AMMar 17, 3:51 AM

7261

OptionProbability

Superintelligent

Superhuman

Below- or par- human

70

16

14

Will crypto currency payments be a common thing for millions of people on any continent?

Nov 8, 2:31 AMDec 15, 10:59 PM

60.78%chance

1245

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1245

803

Able to read an article for a very small charge on New York Times by end of 2027?

Jan 21, 9:09 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

19%chance

466

OptionVotes

NO

YES

209

153

Will I get closed-loop controlled TMS (cTMS) by 2035?

Nov 28, 5:24 AM

00

Help my house find a new roommate

Aug 15, 5:05 PMAug 16, 6:59 AM

00

How can I get this huge list of Google Photos bugs fixed? [currently a 43m long rambling video]

Nov 15, 10:47 PM

110

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