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Prediction markets for GLO

Is establishing a truth economy that produces more than 50% of the global GDP before AI fooms critical to survival?

May 18, 4:27 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

39.92%chance

7333871

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1227

815

Is Syzygy on the Glowfic constellation an alternate account of Eliezer Yudkowsky?

Aug 31, 2:38 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

37.76%chance

8028754

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1059

1056

Will there be more than 100K AI successionists globally by Nov 7, 2028?

Apr 28, 4:20 AMNov 7, 11:59 PM

26.53%chance

1418546

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1664

601

Will a global catastrophe kill at least 10% of humans before 2100, and what will be the cause?

Jul 21, 12:41 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

6217274

OptionProbability

No global catastrophe

Artificial Intelligence

Climate

Biological

Nuclear

Nanotechnology

Other cause

62

15

10

6

4

1

1

Will global greenhouse gas emissions in 2025 be lower than global greenhouse gas emissions in 2024?

May 11, 9:53 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

36.29%chance

3213673

OptionVotes

NO

YES

11596

6015

Will global greenhouse gas emissions in 2026 be lower than global greenhouse gas emissions in 2025?

Jun 2, 4:04 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

56.15%chance

447881

OptionVotes

YES

NO

10379

9454

Will there be a global depression in the 2020s?

Apr 3, 3:56 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

12.23%chance

255748

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2679

373

Will AI cause a global catastrophe killing at least 10% of humans before 2100?

Jul 21, 12:31 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

29.78%chance

143449

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1432

727

What share of global energy will come from nuclear power?

Nov 27, 12:11 PMJan 1, 12:59 PM

273075

OptionProbability

2100

2075

2050

2040

2030

2025

2024

2023

39

33

20

11

8

7

6

4

What percentage of the global population will be internet users in 2030?

Mar 17, 4:49 PMJan 1, 6:01 AM

76.18%chance

621913

OptionProbability

NO

YES

7104

5981

Will there be a global pause on the largest AI training runs at any point before AGI?

May 29, 5:12 PMJan 1, 6:05 PM

18.99%chance

91729

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3131

1468

By how many years would AGI-induced transformative impact (defined as sustained global GDP growth of +5% annually) be de

May 18, 7:34 PMDec 31, 8:31 PM

00

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