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Prediction markets for Global Bitcoin

What will be the dominant unit of economic power used by humans in 2040?

Nov 4, 4:21 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

7443529

OptionProbability

US Dollar (USD)*

Chinese Renminbi (CNY)*

Euro (EUR)*

Unit of Computation (FLOP/IOP, etc.)

Energy-based Unit (Joule/Wh, etc.)

Bitcoin (BTC)*

Reputation-based Currency (e.g., Whuffie points)

Emission-Linked Financial Instrument (e.g., carbon coin)

Worldcoin (WLD)*

Gold (Au)

Ethereum (ETH)*

Utilitarian Value-based Currency (DALY, QALY, dead children, etc.)

Paperclips

Manifold Mana

TRUMP

57

31

24

8

8

7

6

6

5

5

4

4

3

2

2

What will be the annualized nominal return of Bitcoin from 2023 to 2100? (5x amplified)

May 9, 8:42 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

36.1%chance

2218272

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1041

910

Will Bitcoin ever go below $50,000 again?

Jun 15, 9:23 AMJan 1, 10:18 AM

83.2%chance

266297

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2225

449

Will Bitcoin be carbon-neutral by 2030?

Jul 5, 7:56 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

13.93%chance

223199

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2485

402

What will be the log change in bitcoin's market share among all currencies between 2023 and 2100? (M3000 subsidy)

May 22, 2:50 AMFeb 1, 7:59 AM

66.3%chance

72461

OptionProbability

NO

YES

4576

2499

Will blockchain technology be used for storing at least 10% of global GDP by 2027?

Nov 15, 1:49 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

27.66%chance

141106

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1617

618

Google Trends: Will "bitcoin" search hit all-time high before 2030?

Feb 5, 9:24 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

38.35%chance

7819

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1268

789

Will Bitcoin dominance reach 70% before 2030?

May 8, 7:48 PMDec 31, 4:59 AM

69.05%chance

16706

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1002

964

Will Europe fall before Bitcoin?

Dec 12, 7:24 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

69.2%chance

8669

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1149

455

When will Bitcoin cross $100k again?

Mar 12, 7:44 PMFeb 2, 4:59 AM

7661

OptionProbability

Before January 2027

Before October 2026

Before July 2026

Before June 2026

Before May 2026

Before April 2026

41

30

16

10

4

1

Will Bitcoin dominance reach 80% before 2040?

May 9, 5:39 PMDec 31, 4:59 AM

20%chance

5654

OptionVotes

YES

NO

200

50

Will Bitcoin dominance reach 80% before 2030?

May 8, 7:45 PMDec 31, 4:59 AM

8.15%chance

8459

OptionVotes

YES

NO

336

30

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