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Prediction markets for Global Emerging Markets

Will either the courts or congress significantly limit trumps ability to impose or negotiate tariffs by the end of 2025

Apr 7, 10:55 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

40.83%chance

18878430

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1220

873

Will we get Rouge AI before 2032?

Mar 12, 11:13 AMMar 1, 10:59 PM

9.23%chance

264684

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2710

623

Will we get Rouge AI before 2031?

Mar 10, 2:41 PMMar 1, 10:59 PM

9.89%chance

253665

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1905

810

EU ends unanimous decision-making by EOY 2035?

Jul 14, 12:53 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

27.74%chance

112283

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1614

620

Novel human infectious disease identified by WHO before EOY2025?

Mar 24, 4:13 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

22.68%chance

151471

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1846

542

Will a serious competitor to NVIDIA in the AI chip space emerge before EOY 2027?

Mar 31, 7:40 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

71.67%chance

411256

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1220

860

Which countries will legalize psychedelics by the end of 2029? [ADD ANSWERS]

Mar 27, 7:24 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

17754

OptionProbability

Portugal

Switzerland

Brazil

USA

Canada

Netherlands

Spain

Israel

Mexico

UK

Germany

New Zealand

Australia

94

89

50

40

38

35

34

34

34

24

20

18

9

Will the market of foundation models be more fragmented than in 2024 by EOY 2026?

Jul 16, 3:12 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

70.7%chance

4555

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1553

644

Will Fukuyama's "End of History" thesis still be plausible by 2035?

Oct 2, 1:15 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

37.83%chance

10525

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1282

780

Will New Zealand's National-led Coalition Government Be Limited to a Single Term?

Feb 25, 3:54 AMNov 30, 10:59 AM

35.27%chance

10453

OptionVotes

YES

NO

284

131

Will Humanity Create a Consciousness-Emerging Universe Simulation by 2100?

Feb 5, 2:40 PMJan 1, 3:59 PM

34.43%chance

14318

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1039

903

What are Donald Trumps real goals in relation with Greenland?

May 13, 8:17 PMDec 31, 9:16 PM

11212

OptionProbability

Ensure future safety of arctic shipping lines

Mining for Rare earths, ores or coal

Server farms and data centers (such as for AI)

Expansion of military bases (also in accordance with european goals)

52. State of America (or 51. if Canada successfully rejects)

Olympic Winter Games

77

64

59

52

24

10

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