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Prediction markets for Global News

What news stories of the 2020s will be included in respected history textbooks published in the 2050s?

May 23, 7:10 AMDec 30, 7:59 AM

8519498

OptionProbability

Covid

Russia-Ukraine War

Brexit

Israel-Hamas War

US Withdrawal from Afghanistan

January 6th

LLMs

George Floyd Protests

Bitcoin

The Rise of China

Private Spaceflight

Violent repression of women in Iran

New York v Trump 2024

Russia's takeover of the US political establishment

Tigray War

BRICS Expansion

Meme stocks

Enshittification

98

97

88

82

82

82

78

75

63

63

62

57

54

53

51

40

21

13

Pope Leo XIV mentions prediction markets before 2027?

Oct 16, 9:14 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

16.68%chance

387946

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3651

1346

AI bubble pops in 2026?

Nov 10, 12:41 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

25.26%chance

597484

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3407

2480

Will GiveWell fund HPV vaccination to prevent cervical cancer by 1st January 2027?

Dec 18, 12:46 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

24.26%chance

224741

OptionVotes

YES

NO

5159

2655

Will GiveWell fund Chlorhexidine for umbilical cord care by 1st January 2027?

Dec 18, 12:38 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

24.96%chance

123209

OptionVotes

YES

NO

6132

3376

Will increasing levels of AI/Automation cause a meaningful reduction in sweatshop labor by 2035?

Aug 24, 10:40 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

59.06%chance

673086

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1508

1036

Will North Korea collapse before the end of 2030?

Dec 28, 1:01 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

16.15%chance

312631

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1217

921

8. AI a central issue in the 2026 U.S. midterms. Politics get complex, especially regarding job oss [See full title!]

Dec 28, 11:33 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

63%chance

202212

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1307

768

10000+ passenger eVTOLs sold by one company by 2027?

Oct 17, 4:48 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

14.62%chance

71465

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2417

414

Will a data centre hosting AI be physically attacked before December 31, 2029?

Sep 29, 7:48 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM

38.12%chance

191260

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1168

570

Will DoorDash have layoffs in 2026?

Dec 24, 9:30 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

33.27%chance

7181

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1148

576

Complaints about delivery vehicles in bike lanes?

Jun 22, 6:24 PMJun 23, 6:10 PM

46.06%chance

3115

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1082

924

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