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Prediction markets for Global Policy

Will Donald Trump be alive on 31 December 2026?

Feb 7, 11:14 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

95%chance

5915687

OptionVotes

NO

YES

503

119

Will there be an international moratorium on frontier AGI development by EOY 2033?

Mar 24, 2:41 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

26%chance

184826

OptionVotes

YES

NO

11492

9421

Vanadium in VRFBs reach 20% of global vanadium consumption by 2030?

Nov 26, 5:46 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

35.22%chance

124755

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1357

738

8. AI a central issue in the 2026 U.S. midterms. Politics get complex, especially regarding job oss [See full title!]

Dec 28, 11:33 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

77.1%chance

273066

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1838

546

EU ends unanimous decision-making by EOY 2035?

Jul 14, 12:53 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

23.11%chance

112422

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1824

548

Will humans deliberately cause an AI winter?

Mar 15, 2:15 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

27%chance

552307

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1016

892

Will Mexico's real GDP grow by at least 1.4% in 2026?

May 1, 11:29 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

42.84%chance

141714

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1377

507

Will the US concede Taiwan to the PRC before 2030?

Mar 1, 4:06 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

21.21%chance

14835

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1015

943

30-year Treasury yield hits 5.6% during Trump's second term?

May 30, 7:20 PMJan 19, 11:59 AM

68.67%chance

14673

OptionVotes

NO

YES

800

247

By the year 2030, renewable energy sources will account for more than 50% of the world's total energy consumption.

Aug 6, 8:16 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

13.94%chance

14386

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1131

960

Will the Church of England take an affirming stance on gay marriage by 2030?

Apr 4, 12:03 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

62.87%chance

16250

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1166

885

If, before 2050, AI kills more than 1 million people, will the policy response be insufficient?

Aug 8, 5:43 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

68.45%chance

365

OptionVotes

NO

YES

4047

3968

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