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Prediction markets for Global Policy

Will humans deliberately cause an AI winter?

Mar 15, 2:15 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

24.38%chance

532245

OptionVotes

YES

NO

990

983

EU ends unanimous decision-making by EOY 2035?

Jul 14, 12:53 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

16.17%chance

101697

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2277

439

📈 US unemployment above 4.5% before 2029?

Jun 10, 11:27 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

81.53%chance

71310

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2101

476

Will South Korea withdraw from the NPT by 2026?

Apr 22, 4:33 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

9.75%chance

151050

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1062

940

Will the minimum global corporate tax of 15% be able to end tax competition and raise additional sizeable revenue?

Jan 5, 2:15 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

33.71%chance

15380

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1066

957

By the year 2030, renewable energy sources will account for more than 50% of the world's total energy consumption.

Aug 6, 8:16 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

14.33%chance

13356

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1101

965

Will the Church of England take an affirming stance on gay marriage by 2030?

Apr 4, 12:03 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

62.69%chance

15245

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1161

888

Global Economic Policy Uncertainty Dec 2025 to exceed 600

Jun 30, 4:54 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

43.1%chance

3131

OptionVotes

YES

NO

115

87

Will carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuels and industry exceed 20 gigatons per year in 2050?

Apr 12, 7:38 PMDec 31, 7:00 PM

65%chance

874

OptionVotes

NO

YES

225

130

If, before 2050, AI kills more than 1 million people, will the policy response be insufficient?

Aug 8, 5:43 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

68.45%chance

365

OptionVotes

NO

YES

4047

3968

India touches 5 trillion dollar GDP in 2027?

Jul 1, 3:16 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

45.49%chance

223

OptionVotes

YES

NO

109

91

When will one of the top 5 U.S. universities (HYPSM) fall out of the top 10?

Aug 6, 7:32 AMSep 30, 7:26 AM

110

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