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Prediction markets for Global South
U.S. military or CIA kinetic action against Brazil before end of 2027?
Jun 9, 2:33 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
7.74%chance
3437147
OptionVotes
135189
102092
Will GiveWell fund HPV vaccination to prevent cervical cancer by 1st January 2027?
Dec 18, 12:46 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
22.87%chance
234991
OptionVotes
5409
2578
Vanadium in VRFBs reach 20% of global vanadium consumption by 2030?
Nov 26, 5:46 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
35.02%chance
124690
OptionVotes
1363
735
Will GiveWell fund Chlorhexidine for umbilical cord care by 1st January 2027?
Dec 18, 12:38 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
22.68%chance
133709
OptionVotes
6632
3220
OptionVotes
3203
822
OptionVotes
1031
884
OptionVotes
173
96
Will the Church of England take an affirming stance on gay marriage by 2030?
Apr 4, 12:03 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM
62.87%chance
16250
OptionVotes
1166
885
Will South Africa's PGM output decline exceed 5% YoY in 2025?
Feb 9, 6:01 PMFeb 9, 6:01 PM
41.9%chance
2120
OptionVotes
1032
954
Will a Global South pavilion win the Golden Lion at Venice 2026?
Feb 16, 11:36 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
53.84%chance
280
OptionVotes
1080
926
Will Brazil's April–September 2026 ferroniobium exports exceed 65 kt?
Mar 30, 9:43 PMDec 31, 5:00 AM
45.82%chance
220
OptionVotes
109
92
OptionProbability
12
11
10
10
10
9
9
7
7
7
7