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Prediction markets for Global Times

CATL receives license renewal for Yichun Lithium mine by end of Feb 2027?

Jun 9, 2:12 PMFeb 28, 11:59 PM

92.28%chance

75857043

OptionVotes

NO

YES

362974

30273

CATL receives license renewal for Yichun Lithium mine by end of Dec 2026?

Jun 9, 2:09 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

84.73%chance

25163138

OptionVotes

NO

YES

23558

4245

What will be the annualized nominal return of Bitcoin from 2023 to 2100? (5x amplified)

May 9, 8:42 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

36.1%chance

2218272

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1041

910

Pope Leo XIV mentions prediction markets before 2027?

Oct 16, 9:14 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

14.75%chance

5415399

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4013

1279

Will LFP batteries account for more than 65% of global electric vehicle battery production (by GWh) in 2026?

Mar 21, 2:23 AMDec 31, 5:00 AM

39.95%chance

1412824

OptionVotes

YES

NO

12260

8157

Global CO2 emissions in 2050 (excluding land use)?

Jul 2, 4:07 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

2012007

OptionProbability

40 - 49.99

10 - 19.99

0 - 9.99

30 - 39.99

50 - 59.99

20 - 29.99

Below 0

60 - 69.99

70 - 79.99

80 - 89.99

90+

25

16

12

12

11

10

7

2

2

1

1

How Much Funding Will a Single Manifold Question Raise for My Antibiotic Research?💊🦠🚀

Feb 24, 12:05 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

1510936

OptionProbability

None

(0, 200]

(200, 600]

(600, 1200]

(1200, 2500]

(2500, 5000]

(5000, 10000]

(10000, 15000]

(15000, 24000]

More than $24,000

61

23

8

2

1

1

1

1

1

1

Will there be a global pause on the largest AI training runs at any point before AGI?

May 29, 5:12 PMJan 1, 6:05 PM

42.5%chance

233523

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2153

1456

Will Russia deliver the promised 4.8 million tons of diesel?

Oct 9, 8:28 PMJan 31, 11:59 PM

27.02%chance

203488

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1643

608

EU ends unanimous decision-making by EOY 2035?

Jul 14, 12:53 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

25.06%chance

122452

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1729

578

Will Peter Daszak serve time in the US, UK or EU for his professional global health work before 2040

Jun 15, 9:49 PMFeb 2, 4:59 AM

9.54%chance

161801

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1485

869

Will FIDE lift restrictions on transgender players by the end of 2027?

Aug 24, 7:54 PMJan 1, 9:59 PM

19.36%chance

231586

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1753

110

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