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Prediction markets for Global Times

Will Hans Niemann be a top 10 chess player before 2030?

Oct 5, 10:46 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

56.76%chance

5824043

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1329

614

What will be the annualized nominal return of Bitcoin from 2023 to 2100? (5x amplified)

May 9, 8:42 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

36.1%chance

2218272

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1041

910

Global CO2 emissions in 2050 (excluding land use)?

Jul 2, 4:07 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

1811297

OptionProbability

40 - 49.99

10 - 19.99

0 - 9.99

30 - 39.99

20 - 29.99

50 - 59.99

Below 0

60 - 69.99

70 - 79.99

80 - 89.99

90+

25

18

12

12

10

10

7

2

1

1

1

Pope Leo XIV mentions prediction markets before 2027?

Oct 16, 9:14 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

17.4%chance

459730

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3533

1371

Will Bitcoin ever go below $50,000 again?

Jun 15, 9:23 AMJan 1, 10:18 AM

83.2%chance

266297

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2225

449

Will LFP batteries account for more than 65% of global electric vehicle battery production (by GWh) in 2026?

Mar 21, 2:23 AMDec 31, 5:00 AM

35.23%chance

54582

OptionVotes

YES

NO

13560

7375

EU ends unanimous decision-making by EOY 2035?

Jul 14, 12:53 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

25.17%chance

112322

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1724

580

Will there be a global pause on the largest AI training runs at any point before AGI?

May 29, 5:12 PMJan 1, 6:05 PM

23%chance

152257

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2664

1592

Will Peter Daszak serve time in the US, UK or EU for his professional global health work before 2040

Jun 15, 9:49 PMFeb 2, 4:59 AM

9.54%chance

161801

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1485

869

Will global CO2 emissions decrease in 2028?

Apr 17, 3:54 PMFeb 24, 9:59 PM

68.2%chance

231639

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1454

690

How Much Funding Will a Single Manifold Question Raise for My Antibiotic Research?💊🦠🚀

Feb 24, 12:05 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

131206

OptionProbability

(0, 200]

None

(200, 600]

(600, 1200]

(1200, 2500]

(2500, 5000]

(5000, 10000]

(10000, 15000]

(15000, 24000]

More than $24,000

37

24

9

5

4

4

4

4

4

4

Will FIDE lift restrictions on transgender players by the end of 2027?

Aug 24, 7:54 PMJan 1, 9:59 PM

58.87%chance

22827

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1210

454

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