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Prediction markets for Global Times

Will Hans Niemann be a top 10 chess player before 2030?

Oct 5, 10:46 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

33.19%chance

4820786

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1124

921

What will be the annualized nominal return of Bitcoin from 2023 to 2100? (5x amplified)

May 9, 8:42 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

40%chance

2217614

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1099

815

Global CO2 emissions in 2050 (excluding land use)?

Jul 2, 4:07 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

179634

OptionProbability

40 - 49.99

10 - 19.99

30 - 39.99

0 - 9.99

20 - 29.99

50 - 59.99

Below 0

60 - 69.99

70 - 79.99

80 - 89.99

90+

25

19

13

11

11

10

5

2

1

1

1

Pope Leo XIV mentions prediction markets before 2027?

Oct 16, 9:14 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

25.24%chance

316832

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2603

1618

US import restrictions on Russian Palladium by January 1, 2026?

Nov 24, 8:38 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

62.13%chance

125851

OptionVotes

NO

YES

12810

7806

EU ends unanimous decision-making by EOY 2035?

Jul 14, 12:53 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

27.74%chance

112283

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1614

620

Will Peter Daszak serve time in the US, UK or EU for his professional global health work before 2040

Jun 15, 9:49 PMFeb 2, 4:59 AM

9.54%chance

161801

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1485

869

Will there be a global pause on the largest AI training runs at any point before AGI?

May 29, 5:12 PMJan 1, 6:05 PM

19.62%chance

101749

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3048

1488

Will an astronaut's life be lost during any stage of spaceflight before 2030?

Jan 31, 4:04 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

33.55%chance

261714

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1112

926

Will Bitcoin ever go below $50,000 again?

Jun 15, 9:23 AMJan 1, 10:18 AM

50.99%chance

151662

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1020

980

How Much Funding Will a Single Manifold Question Raise for My Antibiotic Research?💊🦠🚀

Feb 24, 12:05 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

11946

OptionProbability

(0, 200]

None

(200, 600]

(600, 1200]

(1200, 2500]

(2500, 5000]

(5000, 10000]

(10000, 15000]

(15000, 24000]

More than $24,000

34

25

9

6

5

5

5

5

4

4

Will FIDE lift restrictions on transgender players by the end of 2027?

Aug 24, 7:54 PMJan 1, 9:59 PM

70%chance

19692

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1093

669

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