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Prediction markets for Globe

Will neurotechnology enable AI to predict and classify human decisions, along with their influencing factors, by 2030?

May 18, 8:53 PMJan 3, 12:59 PM

69.7%chance

302778

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1101

920

Will a Boom Supersonic beat SpaceX to COMMERCIAL super-sonic suborbital flight? (see description for terms)

Dec 9, 4:32 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

39.83%chance

121672

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1011

970

Will Barack Obama be nominated for a Golden Globe or Oscar in the next three years [2024, 2025, and 2026]?

Dec 11, 4:19 PMMar 1, 7:59 AM

18.22%chance

271656

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2124

444

Will another country follow El Salvador in adopting Bitcoin as legal tender by the end of 2025?

May 13, 3:00 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

64.82%chance

15960

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1303

788

Best Podcast Golden Globe—first winner?

May 10, 7:19 PMJan 10, 8:12 PM

3780

OptionProbability

Other

This American Life

Conan O'Brien Needs a Friend

Call Her Daddy

Joe Rogan

The Daily (NYT)

SmartLess

This Past Weekend (Theo Von)

Good Hang with Amy Poehler

The Dwarkesh Podcast

62

5

5

4

4

4

4

4

4

2

Will there still be at least three Commonwealth Realms in 2028?

May 8, 12:08 PMJan 1, 3:59 PM

94.76%chance

13757

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1545

934

Will there be another global pandemic before 2030?

Sep 2, 7:59 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

41.74%chance

27643

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1118

783

Will the number of time zones on Earth change by 2030?

Mar 17, 8:57 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

45.66%chance

24606

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1060

932

Will Haruki Murakami ever win the Nobel Prize for Literature?

Oct 8, 10:08 PMJan 13, 6:59 AM

27.03%chance

17368

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1108

941

Will there still be at least nine Commonwealth Realms in 2028?

May 8, 12:07 PMJan 1, 3:59 PM

75.32%chance

11201

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1027

981

Complaints about delivery vehicles in bike lanes?

Jun 22, 6:24 PMJun 23, 6:10 PM

46.06%chance

3115

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1082

924

Will the Harlem Globetrotters lose again before Jan 1st 2030?

Dec 14, 12:13 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

38.43%chance

490

OptionVotes

YES

NO

130

125

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