Glow News

Is Syzygy on the Glowfic constellation an alternate account of Eliezer Yudkowsky?

Aug 31, 2:38 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

37.88%chance

8028756

OptionVotes

YES

1058

1056

When will the U.S. government confirm that the Roswell incident was an actual UFO crash?

Sep 18, 8:00 PMJan 1, 3:59 AM

2922824

OptionProbability

Before 2040

Before 2030

Before 2027

Before 2026

Before 2025

Who or what will appear on the cover of TIME Magazine's 2026 Person of the Year issue? [add answers]

Dec 11, 7:48 AMDec 11, 11:59 PM

92193

OptionProbability

Exactly one person

Glasses

A woman

3 or more people

Donald Trump

Xi Jinping

[an abstract representation of Artificial Intelligence]

How many seconds will Sora take to generate 10 seconds of video?

Feb 17, 5:29 AMFeb 2, 7:59 AM

83.87%chance

201604

OptionVotes

YES

1255

897

@Catnee's Guessing Game

Oct 12, 1:37 AMDec 31, 6:29 PM

181585

OptionProbability

Catnee considers AI safety work to be in general very valuable

Catnee will trade on this market, but only after resolving "Catnee will not trade on this market"

Catnee always switches to the glowing eye pfp when up to serious mischief

Catnee will be repaid the m567k stolen by @ian

Catnee believes in the righteous power of death to right the ills of birth

Catnee is an AI planning on destroying the world before 2030

Catnee is an Oligarch IRL

Catnee likes to go hiking

Catnee will not trade on this market

Will there be fighting in St. Petersburg, Russia’s major northern city, during 2025?

Apr 15, 9:21 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

2.6%chance

8548

OptionVotes

YES

612

Bioluminescent tree lighting before 2030?

Oct 25, 7:19 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

48.79%chance

8159

OptionVotes

YES

166

126

Successful Mercury landing till 2040?

Apr 22, 7:13 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

33.15%chance

342

OptionVotes

YES

172

100

Will Lada Nuzhna write a glowing letter of reference for Jose Luis Ricon (JLR) by EOY 2034?

Aug 9, 4:46 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

47.64%chance

OptionVotes

YES

105

Will Kaeberlein, Sinclair, Jose Luis Ricon, Zhavoronkov, Lada Nuzhna, Bryan Johnson, Guerente all DnD campaign by 2035?

Dec 3, 4:22 PM

Glow News

Prediction markets for Glow

Prediction markets for Glow

Prediction markets for Glow

Is Syzygy on the Glowfic constellation an alternate account of Eliezer Yudkowsky?

When will the U.S. government confirm that the Roswell incident was an actual UFO crash?

Who or what will appear on the cover of TIME Magazine's 2026 Person of the Year issue? [add answers]

How many seconds will Sora take to generate 10 seconds of video?

@Catnee's Guessing Game

Will there be fighting in St. Petersburg, Russia’s major northern city, during 2025?

Bioluminescent tree lighting before 2030?

Successful Mercury landing till 2040?

Will Lada Nuzhna write a glowing letter of reference for Jose Luis Ricon (JLR) by EOY 2034?

Will Kaeberlein, Sinclair, Jose Luis Ricon, Zhavoronkov, Lada Nuzhna, Bryan Johnson, Guerente all DnD campaign by 2035?

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