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Prediction markets for GLP

[M$5k subsidy] Will any FDA-approved GLP-1 agonists be withdrawn from the market for safety reasons by...

Nov 18, 10:14 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

214367

OptionProbability

2030

2029

2028

2027

2025

2026

36

28

21

9

0

0

Will a GLP-1 receptor agonist (Ozempic-like drug) be added to public water supplies in the United States by 2075?

Oct 8, 10:12 PMOct 16, 5:59 AM

10.31%chance

114231

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2949

339

By 2030, will LLMs have a bigger impact on the economy than GLP-1 receptor agents?

Oct 3, 12:05 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

90.36%chance

603396

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1431

907

Will GLP-1 agonists help stop or reverse the US obesity trend by end of 2027

Apr 29, 12:40 PMJan 1, 6:59 AM

88.11%chance

382957

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2431

582

What fraction of US adults will regularly take GLP-1 drugs in 2030?

Aug 25, 9:31 PMJun 26, 3:59 AM

372916

OptionProbability

11-20%

21-30%

0-5%

6-10%

31-40%

41-50%

51-75%

76-100%

33

22

20

18

3

2

1

1

By 2029, will there be an FDA approval of GLP-1 for a substance use disorder?

Jan 20, 9:19 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

51%chance

72345

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1261

257

Will Donald Trump ever take a GLP-1 agonist (eg Ozempic, Mounjaro, Wegovy, Zepbound, etc) for weight loss

Feb 7, 1:31 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

57%chance

341957

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1026

928

Clinical trial shows by 2030 that GLP-1 receptor agonists significantly reduce osteoarthritis symptoms

Jun 26, 2:19 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

73.82%chance

4787

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1679

596

Nobel Prize awarded for Ozempic (or GLP-1 drugs) by 2030?

Jul 17, 12:43 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

42.76%chance

8542

OptionVotes

YES

NO

118

93

Will a junk/fast food company use engineered additives to mitigate the effects of GLP-1 agonists (Ozempic)?

Feb 11, 9:51 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

16.11%chance

11339

OptionVotes

YES

NO

228

44

Will a majority government owned company introduce a new GLP-1 drug before 2040?

Jan 25, 9:23 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

15.94%chance

2136

OptionVotes

YES

NO

230

44

Will a study suggest GLP-1 agonists (and similar) have an effect on bulimia nervosa frequency or work as a treatment?

Jan 31, 3:53 AMJan 31, 3:28 AM

110

OptionProbability

No, no paper or one with an unclear finding

Yes, possible preventative/treatment effect

Yes, possible deleterious effect

63

50

50

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