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Prediction markets for GLP

[M$5k subsidy] Will any FDA-approved GLP-1 agonists be withdrawn from the market for safety reasons by...

Nov 18, 10:14 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

204365

OptionProbability

2030

2029

2028

2027

2025

2026

36

28

21

9

0

0

Will a GLP-1 receptor agonist (Ozempic-like drug) be added to public water supplies in the United States by 2075?

Oct 8, 10:12 PMOct 16, 5:59 AM

10.48%chance

94195

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2922

342

By 2030, will LLMs have a bigger impact on the economy than GLP-1 receptor agents?

Oct 3, 12:05 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

85.01%chance

592896

OptionVotes

YES

NO

976

931

Will GLP-1 agonists help stop or reverse the US obesity trend by end of 2027

Apr 29, 12:40 PMJan 1, 6:59 AM

86.3%chance

362717

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2191

617

What fraction of US adults will regularly take GLP-1 drugs in 2030?

Aug 25, 9:31 PMJun 26, 3:59 AM

362716

OptionProbability

11-20%

21-30%

0-5%

6-10%

31-40%

41-50%

51-75%

76-100%

33

22

20

18

3

2

1

1

Will Donald Trump ever take a GLP-1 agonist (eg Ozempic, Mounjaro, Wegovy, Zepbound, etc) for weight loss

Feb 7, 1:31 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

54.79%chance

311790

OptionVotes

NO

YES

977

967

Will a GLP-1 agonist diabetes / weight loss drug be the top bestselling drug in 2025?

Mar 8, 4:50 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

30%chance

251266

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1194

845

Clinical trial shows by 2030 that GLP-1 receptor agonists significantly reduce osteoarthritis symptoms

Jun 26, 2:19 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

67.73%chance

3537

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1449

690

Will a junk/fast food company use engineered additives to mitigate the effects of GLP-1 agonists (Ozempic)?

Feb 11, 9:51 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

14.21%chance

9279

OptionVotes

YES

NO

246

41

By 2029, will there be an FDA approval of GLP-1 for a substance use disorder?

Jan 20, 9:19 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

86.03%chance

4244

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1136

942

Will a majority government owned company introduce a new GLP-1 drug before 2040?

Jan 25, 9:23 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

15.33%chance

1135

OptionVotes

YES

NO

235

43

Will there be medical consensus that GLP-1 drugs have cardiovascular benefits beyond those provided via weight loss?

Aug 25, 9:18 PMAug 12, 3:59 AM

70.66%chance

987

OptionVotes

NO

YES

232

135

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