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Instant deepfakes of anyone (doing anything) by the end of 2027?

Dec 7, 10:12 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

81%chance

501720246

OptionVotes

YES

NO

16300

14168

Will Bitcoin (BTC) price first go below $30,000 and then above $50,000 before 2030?

Feb 2, 8:39 AMJan 1, 3:59 PM

15.66%chance

527989

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2111

561

When will the first robot be made that can go into a near-arbitrary kitchen and make a cup of tea?

Apr 18, 2:20 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

28.55%chance

545244

OptionProbability

NO

YES

384

239

When is the first installment of customer funds going to be reimbursed by FTX? [ADD RESPONSES]

Feb 28, 8:30 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

143829

OptionProbability

Before Jan 2026

Before Jan 2025

Before Jun 2024

Before Sep 2024

99

9

0

0

What year will Optimus first go to Burning Man festival?

Nov 23, 4:13 PMDec 1, 7:59 AM

52859

OptionProbability

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

2025

19

19

18

18

18

7

Which of Tumbles, Mira, or Strutheo will go to space first?

Mar 26, 5:51 PMApr 21, 6:59 AM

192563

OptionProbability

No one goes to space

Mira will be the first to space

Tumbles will be the first to space

Strutheo will be the first to space

86

13

1

1

How many FLOPs will go into training the first ASL-3 model?

Oct 3, 2:08 AMOct 10, 3:59 AM

7693

OptionProbability

1e27

3e26

Other

3e25

1e25

1e26

1e24

3e24

34

25

15

9

8

6

2

2

Which Humanoid Robot will first go into production?

Apr 18, 12:09 AMOct 13, 6:59 AM

19669

OptionProbability

Other

Digit- Agility Robotics

Tesla-Optimus

Boston Dynamics - Atlas

Figure AI - Figure 01

47

27

22

3

1

In Tontine, which will be the first color to go extinct?

Nov 27, 8:08 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

8539

OptionProbability

Yellow

Magenta/Pink

Orange

Red

Purple

Green

Cyan

64

16

16

2

1

1

0

Will Trump or Biden go to prison first?

Aug 30, 11:05 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

15511

OptionProbability

Trump

Biden

93

7

Which country will be the first to go over 5 on the Economist's Democracy index

Mar 29, 10:59 AMDec 6, 4:59 AM

452

OptionProbability

Iran

China

North Korea

43

31

27

Will I regret going back to school by the end of my first quarter?

May 21, 3:52 AMAug 21, 11:59 PM

25.4%chance

544

OptionVotes

YES

NO

117

93

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