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Prediction markets for GOA

Will Cristiano Ronaldo score 1000 goals before he retires?

Oct 16, 2:01 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

92.99%chance

558353

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1973

29

Will LeBron James be considered the GOAT in 2030?

Dec 25, 5:41 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

62.71%chance

384729

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1481

389

Will Lionel Messi be considered the GOAT in 2030?

Dec 25, 5:42 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

74.51%chance

302706

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1299

841

Will OpenAI abandon the goal of building AGI before 2030?

Mar 8, 6:42 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

13.22%chance

301364

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1518

869

Will I succeed in my goal of posting an experiment proposal every Friday for the next 10 weeks?

Mar 18, 1:42 PMMay 29, 11:59 PM

67.14%chance

111317

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1598

335

Across, 2025 a majority of EA funding rounds will have public forecasting questions/prediction markets to bet on whether grants will be given or whether grant goals will be met.

Sep 22, 6:44 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

14.74%chance

201289

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1647

825

Will Chinese social credit system be thought to be based on AI with own goals by end of 2035?

May 21, 2:42 PMDec 31, 6:59 PM

23.06%chance

91022

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1846

568

Will Kylian Mbappe score more goals than Karim Benzema for Real Madrid?

Aug 14, 10:47 PMAug 22, 9:59 PM

29.12%chance

6706

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1560

641

Will the WHO achieve its goal to eradicate malaria in 30 countries by 2030?

Aug 12, 12:12 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

35.48%chance

17487

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1087

939

Will Donald Trump be noticeably more successful at accomplishing his goals in his second term than he was in his first?

Nov 10, 12:19 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

63.01%chance

11475

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1305

766

Will there be two or more super intelligences with different goals/values?

Aug 15, 10:48 AMJan 1, 11:46 AM

50.3%chance

8257

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1036

1024

Will the Goa Tse statue of Jose Luis Ricon be SO magnificent it becomes a work of art?

Aug 16, 3:43 AM

20

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