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Prediction markets for Gold

Will OpenAI o1 (or any direct iteration like o3) get gold on any International Math Olympiad by the end of 2025?

Sep 12, 5:55 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

28.13%chance

143124122

OptionVotes

YES

NO

14461

9183

When will an open-sourced AI win a Gold Medal in the International Math Olympiad?

May 26, 11:35 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

67112101

Will an AI get bronze or silver (but not gold) on any International Math Olympiad by end of 2025?

Jul 23, 1:21 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

71.49%chance

22688622

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1924

757

Artificially produced gold on a significant scale by 2035?

Jul 18, 10:18 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

12.22%chance

878668

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2680

373

Will unlimited 3% cash back on the Robinhood Gold Card last at least 18 months?

Mar 29, 6:43 PMJan 15, 7:59 AM

53.7%chance

644087

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1680

1168

Bitcoin will outperform gold from Jan 1 2020 to Jan 1 2030.

Feb 12, 5:16 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

31.24%chance

143205

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1031

956

Will the U.S. win the gold medal in Men's Basketball at the 2028 Summer Olympics in Los Angeles?

Aug 11, 1:46 AMOct 2, 4:59 AM

63.05%chance

191745

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1306

766

Will the first AI to get IMO gold cite AlphaZero?

Dec 11, 6:03 AMNov 11, 11:59 PM

63.47%chance

191636

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1151

604

Will more than a gram of non-radioactive gold be produced from mercury by 2030?

Jul 21, 10:59 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

15%chance

61549

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2380

420

Will India win a gold medal in the men's Twenty20 Cricket at the 2028 Summer Olympics in Los Angeles?

Aug 13, 5:21 AMSep 20, 2:29 PM

61.04%chance

10837

OptionVotes

NO

YES

175

130

If the US Women were considered a country, will they be in the Top 3 for the gold medal count at the 2028 Olympics?

Aug 11, 5:35 PMAug 19, 6:59 AM

68.84%chance

5500

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1486

673

Will there by a new US work visa program created in 2025? (Excl Gold Cards)

Mar 5, 4:22 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

38.64%chance

4270

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1260

794

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