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Prediction markets for Google Ads

Instant deepfakes of anyone (doing anything) by the end of 2027?

Dec 7, 10:12 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

81%chance

501720246

OptionVotes

YES

NO

16300

14168

OpenAI abandon answer independence on ads before 2028?

Feb 11, 6:33 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

30.44%chance

13613445

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1512

662

By when will Google add ads to Gemini?

Dec 8, 7:05 PMDec 8, 6:54 PM

2411383

OptionProbability

By Jan 1, 2028

By Jan 1, 2027

By Dec 1, 2026

By Nov 1, 2026

By Oct 1, 2026

By Sep 1, 2026

By Aug 1, 2026

By Jul 1, 2026

By Jun 1, 2026

By May 1, 2026

By Jan 1, 2026

By Feb 1, 2026

By Mar 1, 2026

By Apr 1, 2026

84

53

37

27

18

12

7

4

2

1

0

0

0

0

7. Sam Altman will step aside as CEO of OpenAI.

Dec 28, 11:31 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

7.04%chance

264557

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3638

276

Will the Justice Department win its antitrust suit against Google?

Jan 24, 6:00 PMJun 30, 10:59 PM

13.47%chance

292715

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2052

699

Will Google look substantially different as a company in 36 months?

May 10, 11:42 AMMay 1, 11:31 AM

14.49%chance

221933

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2429

412

Google deploys ads in Gemini web or mobile app by end of 2026

Jan 8, 5:08 AMDec 31, 8:00 PM

33%chance

241801

OptionVotes

YES

NO

143

70

When will the EU Commission's investigation into Google's AdTech business end?

Jul 28, 11:52 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

3369

OptionProbability

2027/2028

2025/2026

2029/2030

After 2030

2023/2024

33

27

24

16

1

Will Google Trends add "The Moon" as an selectable geographic location before January 1, 2028?

May 25, 9:44 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

16.13%chance

5285

OptionVotes

YES

NO

228

44

In what year will the Google Pixel release a version with the next standard connector adopted after USB-C?

May 7, 7:00 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

7153

OptionProbability

Other

2031

2030

2029

2026

2027

2028

2025

34

21

16

14

4

4

4

3

Will Google add AI image generation as an option to Google Images by the end of 2026?

Sep 25, 10:36 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

71.06%chance

8118

OptionVotes

NO

YES

639

571

Will Microsoft add Google Gemini as a selectable model in Excel Agent Mode by end of 2026?

May 13, 4:12 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

12%chance

298

OptionVotes

YES

NO

176

85

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