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Prediction markets for Google AI

Will Google Deepmind have AI-related IP stolen before 2026?

Aug 1, 5:58 PMJan 2, 10:59 PM

5.25%chance

3442871

OptionVotes

YES

NO

41806

2167

Will OpenAI, Anthropic, or Google DeepMind have AI-related IP stolen before 2026?

Jun 21, 11:37 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

6.15%chance

498526

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3906

256

Will a OpenAI, Anthropic, Google or Meta release an AI chatbot that has ads in the responses in 2025?

Dec 13, 8:14 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

8.6%chance

386384

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3260

307

Will there be serious AI safety drama at Google or Deepmind before 2026?

Mar 20, 9:53 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

7.47%chance

342867

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3126

144

Will Google add AI image generation as an option to Google Images by the end of 2025?

Jun 30, 6:21 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

7.04%chance

82729

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3694

332

When will a Google AI system achieve an "Autonomy level 1" Machine Learning R&D risk level? [metaculus]

Jul 30, 3:52 PMJul 1, 3:50 PM

4570

OptionProbability

Before H2 2030

Before H1 2030

Before H2 2029

Before H1 2029

Before H1 2028

Before H2 2028

Before H2 2027

Before H1 2027

Before H2 2026

Before H1 2026

80

72

66

60

55

55

45

37

24

11

Will an AI chatbot overtake Google as the most used search engine by 2030?

Aug 3, 6:57 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

42.45%chance

8445

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1164

859

When will a Google AI system achieve an "Uplift level 1" Machine Learning R&D risk level? [metaculus]

Jul 30, 3:55 PMJul 1, 3:55 PM

2430

OptionProbability

Before H2 2030

Before H1 2030

Before H2 2029

Before H1 2029

Before H2 2028

Before H1 2028

Before H2 2027

Before H1 2027

Before H2 2026

Before H1 2026

66

63

59

55

50

45

41

31

20

14

How much will Google Trends interest in AI consciousness change from Jan '24 to Jan '26?

Jan 28, 1:53 AMJan 25, 7:59 AM

7387

OptionProbability

>3x, <=10x

>10x

>1x, <=3x

>.3x, <=1x

<=0.3x

30

28

24

13

5

Will Google AI studio still exist as a product offering in 3 years?

Jun 20, 6:22 PMJun 22, 3:59 AM

55.15%chance

5241

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1109

902

Will Google add AI image generation as an option to Google Images by the end of 2026?

Sep 25, 10:36 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

71.06%chance

8118

OptionVotes

NO

YES

639

571

Google AI Glasses Available by EOY 2026?

Dec 8, 7:37 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

66.88%chance

361

OptionVotes

YES

NO

110

74

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