Google AI Research News

Human-machine intelligence parity achieved before 2028

Jul 4, 3:45 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

62.44%chance

555211

OptionVotes

YES

1461

556

Will prompt injection be effectively solved by end of 2026?

Mar 1, 5:47 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

10.29%chance

364370

OptionVotes

YES

2953

339

7. Sam Altman will step aside as CEO of OpenAI.

Dec 28, 11:31 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

12.58%chance

193559

OptionVotes

YES

2640

380

Human-machine intelligence parity achieved before 2030

Jul 4, 3:44 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

73.79%chance

321826

OptionVotes

YES

1595

604

2. Details of SSI’s research and technology will leak. The big labs will make meaningful adjustments [See full title!]

Dec 28, 11:21 AMDec 29, 11:20 AM

35.17%chance

161505

OptionVotes

YES

1360

738

Will prompt injection be effectively solved by end of 2027?

Mar 1, 7:55 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

21.1%chance

131217

OptionVotes

YES

1934

517

Will there be a successful application of diffusion-like weight modification in LLMs before 2027?

Nov 23, 12:02 PMJan 2, 12:00 AM

26.66%chance

51141

OptionVotes

YES

1659

603

Will Demis Hassabis's net worth exceed $3 billion USD by December 31, 2027?

Dec 7, 12:24 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

67.16%chance

5430

OptionVotes

YES

1430

699

Will AI achieve AGI (Artificial General Intelligence) by 2030?

Mar 4, 6:50 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

47.49%chance

8266

OptionVotes

YES

105

Are Transformers “the last technology to do all of ML” (before AGI)?

Jan 24, 4:10 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

8127

OptionProbability

No, but transformers are still key (the breakthoughs augment upon transformers)

No, a paradigm shift is needed (e.g. JEPA, etc.

Yes: transformers scale the best

No, but the new technology is still a “large foundation model” (non-transformer e.g. Mamba, Diffusion)

AWS or Microsoft release own frontier AI model?

May 7, 5:01 PMDec 31, 5:59 PM

74.99%chance

6115

OptionVotes

YES

173

Will a Russian actor be publicly attributed with stealing weights from a frontier AI developer before 2030?

Oct 30, 11:42 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

50.47%chance

3107

OptionVotes

YES

1059

1041

Google AI Research News

Prediction markets for Google AI Research

Prediction markets for Google AI Research

Prediction markets for Google AI Research

Human-machine intelligence parity achieved before 2028

Will prompt injection be effectively solved by end of 2026?

7. Sam Altman will step aside as CEO of OpenAI.

Human-machine intelligence parity achieved before 2030

2. Details of SSI’s research and technology will leak. The big labs will make meaningful adjustments [See full title!]

Will prompt injection be effectively solved by end of 2027?

Will there be a successful application of diffusion-like weight modification in LLMs before 2027?

Will Demis Hassabis's net worth exceed $3 billion USD by December 31, 2027?

Will AI achieve AGI (Artificial General Intelligence) by 2030?

Are Transformers “the last technology to do all of ML” (before AGI)?

AWS or Microsoft release own frontier AI model?

Will a Russian actor be publicly attributed with stealing weights from a frontier AI developer before 2030?

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