Google AI Research News

Human-machine intelligence parity achieved before 2028

Jul 4, 3:45 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

62.44%chance

555211

OptionVotes

YES

1461

556

7. Sam Altman will step aside as CEO of OpenAI.

Dec 28, 11:31 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

7.04%chance

264557

OptionVotes

YES

3638

276

Will prompt injection be effectively solved by end of 2026?

Mar 1, 5:47 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

10.27%chance

374374

OptionVotes

YES

2957

338

2. Details of SSI’s research and technology will leak. The big labs will make meaningful adjustments [See full title!]

Dec 28, 11:21 AMDec 29, 11:20 AM

29%chance

171855

OptionVotes

YES

1567

640

Human-machine intelligence parity achieved before 2030

Jul 4, 3:44 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

73.79%chance

321826

OptionVotes

YES

1595

604

Will prompt injection be effectively solved by end of 2027?

Mar 1, 7:55 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

17.79%chance

141501

OptionVotes

YES

2149

465

Will there be a successful application of diffusion-like weight modification in LLMs before 2027?

Nov 23, 12:02 PMJan 2, 12:00 AM

26.66%chance

51141

OptionVotes

YES

1659

603

"Will Google DeepMind release a system where the AI itself (not human engineers) generates improvements to its own code

Nov 5, 9:15 PMDec 15, 11:59 PM

7.26%chance

7598

OptionVotes

YES

357

Will Demis Hassabis's net worth exceed $3 billion USD by December 31, 2027?

Dec 7, 12:24 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

63.88%chance

5530

OptionVotes

YES

1330

752

Which of Jack Clark's Oxford lecture AI predictions will come true?

May 22, 11:08 PMJan 1, 12:59 AM

3180

OptionProbability

Apr '28: Bipedal robots meaningfully assist human tradespeople in their work

Dec '28: AI systems able to autonomously design their successors (RSI)

Nov '26: AI good enough at biology to both advance science and potentially proliferate bioweapon risks

Nov '27: Autonomous companies exist and generate $10m+ revenues

Apr '27: A team of humans collaborating with AI will make a Nobel-winning discovery

Will a Russian actor be publicly attributed with stealing weights from a frontier AI developer before 2030?

Oct 30, 11:42 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

48.12%chance

4157

OptionVotes

YES

1091

1011

When will a study be conducted on the effects of DMT on cluster headaches, and if a study is done what will it find?

Oct 23, 11:41 AMJan 1, 12:36 PM

593

OptionProbability

Study that investigates short-term effects of DMT as a treatment has positive findings

Study conducted and released by 2040

Study conducted and released by 2035

Study that investigates long-term effects of DMT as a treatment has positive findings

Study conducted and released by 2030

Google AI Research News

Prediction markets for Google AI Research

Prediction markets for Google AI Research

Prediction markets for Google AI Research

Human-machine intelligence parity achieved before 2028

7. Sam Altman will step aside as CEO of OpenAI.

Will prompt injection be effectively solved by end of 2026?

2. Details of SSI’s research and technology will leak. The big labs will make meaningful adjustments [See full title!]

Human-machine intelligence parity achieved before 2030

Will prompt injection be effectively solved by end of 2027?

Will there be a successful application of diffusion-like weight modification in LLMs before 2027?

"Will Google DeepMind release a system where the AI itself (not human engineers) generates improvements to its own code

Will Demis Hassabis's net worth exceed $3 billion USD by December 31, 2027?

Which of Jack Clark's Oxford lecture AI predictions will come true?

Will a Russian actor be publicly attributed with stealing weights from a frontier AI developer before 2030?

When will a study be conducted on the effects of DMT on cluster headaches, and if a study is done what will it find?

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