Google China News

Which of the following breakthroughs will Deepmind achieve by 2030?

Mar 1, 10:50 AMJan 1, 3:59 PM

291192

OptionProbability

Find a room temperature superconductor, highly efficient photovoltaic cells, or an ultra-strong lightweight material

Find a cure for cancer, Alzheimer's or Diabetis

Will a US open-weights LLM outrank every Chinese open-weights LLM on LMArena at the end of 2027?

May 31, 5:28 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

26.55%chance

9346

OptionVotes

YES

144

Will 10% or more of the top 20 biggest companies today still be in the top 20 in 2050?

Apr 17, 7:54 PMDec 14, 12:00 PM

72%chance

14346

OptionVotes

YES

1091

949

Will Google maps stop following China's law which requires misaligning the satellite layer? By 2039

Mar 5, 1:57 PMJul 1, 6:59 AM

24%chance

6134

OptionVotes

YES

334

130

Will China unban Google before 2033?

May 17, 3:19 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

52.39%chance

480

OptionVotes

YES

181

151

Will China overtake the US in frontier AI by EOY 2030?

Jul 6, 6:48 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

32.23%chance

361

OptionVotes

YES

145

Google China News

Prediction markets for Google China

Prediction markets for Google China

Prediction markets for Google China

Which of the following breakthroughs will Deepmind achieve by 2030?

Will a US open-weights LLM outrank every Chinese open-weights LLM on LMArena at the end of 2027?

Will 10% or more of the top 20 biggest companies today still be in the top 20 in 2050?

Will Google maps stop following China's law which requires misaligning the satellite layer? By 2039

Will China unban Google before 2033?

Will China overtake the US in frontier AI by EOY 2030?

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