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Prediction markets for Google DeepMind

Will any of the below AI companies be nationalized, according to the definition in the description?

Dec 9, 7:39 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

128484

OptionProbability

Any frontier AI company, "soft nationalization"

Other frontier AI firm, "soft nationalization"

xAI, "soft nationalization"

Anthropic, "soft nationalization"

OpenAI, "soft nationalization"

Any frontier AI company, "hard nationalization"

Other frontier AI firm, "hard nationalization"

Google DeepMind, "soft nationalization"

xAI, "hard nationalization"

Anthropic, "hard nationalization"

OpenAI, "hard nationalization"

Google DeepMind, "hard nationalization"

79

64

56

50

49

47

40

39

30

25

21

19

The AI company with the smartest AI system by the end of 2026

Jul 30, 8:54 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

837730

OptionProbability

OpenAI

Google Deepmind

Anthropic

X.ai

Other

Meta

35

30

20

9

5

1

Will Google Deepmind and OpenAI have a major collaborative initiative by the end of 2030? (1000 mana subsidy)

Jun 19, 7:06 AMDec 30, 9:39 PM

52.59%chance

767314

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2494

1805

Will Google DeepMind cause human extinction in the next 5 years?

Jul 9, 11:21 AMJul 9, 9:59 PM

3.83%chance

343302

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2700

978

Will OpenAI, Google Deepmind or Anthropic de-domicile from the UK/US before 2027?

Nov 1, 12:50 PMNov 10, 11:59 PM

6.57%chance

192787

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2678

765

Which AI will the Department of War use?

Feb 28, 12:14 AMDec 31, 12:10 AM

162236

OptionProbability

OpenAI

Other

xAI

Google Deepmind

65

22

7

6

Will OpenAI announce that they are cooperating with Deepmind, Anthropic, Meta or Google in order to mitigate race dynamics by 2027?

Feb 27, 5:52 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

34.41%chance

272003

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1546

323

Will Google DeepMind release Gemini 3.5 by July 31, 2026?

Apr 29, 9:35 AMJul 31, 10:00 PM

99%chance

81161

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1235

19

Serrano and Google DeepMind publish Navier-Stokes result by 2027?

Jun 25, 4:26 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

17.34%chance

241126

OptionVotes

YES

NO

218

46

"Will Google DeepMind release a system where the AI itself (not human engineers) generates improvements to its own code

Nov 5, 9:15 PMDec 15, 11:59 PM

7.26%chance

7598

OptionVotes

YES

NO

357

28

Which entity will be the first to officially announce the creation of AGI?

Jul 14, 9:47 AMJan 1, 9:58 AM

14277

OptionProbability

xAI

Anthropic

Google DeepMind

Other

OpenAI

Meta

31

21

18

16

11

3

Will "AGI Safety & Alignment @ Google DeepMind is h..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Feb 21, 7:04 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

6.53%chance

2107

OptionVotes

YES

NO

207

89

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