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Prediction markets for Google DeepMind

Will any of the below AI companies be nationalized, according to the definition in the description?

Dec 9, 7:39 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

98274

OptionProbability

Any frontier AI company, "soft nationalization"

Other frontier AI firm, "soft nationalization"

xAI, "soft nationalization"

Anthropic, "soft nationalization"

OpenAI, "soft nationalization"

Any frontier AI company, "hard nationalization"

Google DeepMind, "soft nationalization"

Other frontier AI firm, "hard nationalization"

xAI, "hard nationalization"

Anthropic, "hard nationalization"

OpenAI, "hard nationalization"

Google DeepMind, "hard nationalization"

78

64

56

50

49

46

39

39

30

25

21

19

The AI company with the smartest AI system by the end of 2026

Jul 30, 8:54 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

817553

OptionProbability

Google Deepmind

OpenAI

Anthropic

X.ai

Other

Meta

35

28

20

10

6

1

Will Google Deepmind and OpenAI have a major collaborative initiative by the end of 2030? (1000 mana subsidy)

Jun 19, 7:06 AMDec 30, 9:39 PM

52.59%chance

767314

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2494

1805

Will Google DeepMind cause human extinction in the next 5 years?

Jul 9, 11:21 AMJul 9, 9:59 PM

3.84%chance

323198

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2698

978

Will OpenAI, Google Deepmind or Anthropic de-domicile from the UK/US before 2027?

Nov 1, 12:50 PMNov 10, 11:59 PM

4.76%chance

142733

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3519

716

Who will ever rank #1 in LMSYS Chatbot Arena Text Leaderboard in 2026?

Nov 27, 9:46 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

81790

OptionProbability

Alphabet / Google Deepmind / Gemini

OpenAI / ChatGPT

xAI / Grok

DeepSeek

Anthropic / Claude

Mistral

Microsoft

Meta / Llama

Safe Superintelligence (SSI)

Apple

100

75

45

41

33

26

15

10

9

8

Serrano and Google DeepMind publish Navier-Stokes result by 2027?

Jun 25, 4:26 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

12.89%chance

211104

OptionVotes

YES

NO

260

38

Who will publicly release the first language model to be credibly accused of being responsible for 100 deaths?

Oct 5, 2:30 AMDec 13, 7:59 AM

21733

OptionProbability

Meta

Other

Mistral AI

Bytedance

OpenAI

Google DeepMind

EluetherAI

Tesla

Anthropic

Inflection AI

Databricks

Alibaba Group

17

16

15

11

9

9

6

6

4

4

3

2

Will OpenAI announce that they are cooperating with Deepmind, Anthropic, Meta or Google in order to mitigate race dynamics by 2027?

Feb 27, 5:52 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

68.33%chance

23721

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1034

888

What company or institution will win the XTX AIMO Prize?

Dec 26, 4:44 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

11246

OptionProbability

Open AI

Google Deepmind

Other

Anthropic

Meta

UC Berkeley

42

35

13

5

3

2

Will "AGI Safety & Alignment @ Google DeepMind is h..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Feb 21, 7:04 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

6.53%chance

2107

OptionVotes

YES

NO

207

89

Which AI lab will have the highest Sudoku-Bench score by March 1, 2026?

Nov 12, 6:24 PMMar 2, 11:59 PM

582

OptionProbability

OpenAI

Google Deepmind

Anthropic

Other

xAI

71

12

6

6

5

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