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Prediction markets for Google for Startups

7. Sam Altman will step aside as CEO of OpenAI.

Dec 28, 11:31 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

4.9%chance

316987

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4412

227

6. Many more AI companies will begin building custom chips.

Dec 28, 11:29 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

90.75%chance

226494

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3137

320

Will Google Search market share be lower than 60% by Dec 2032?

Oct 19, 1:07 AMJan 1, 2:59 AM

34.11%chance

493399

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1390

1219

Will the "Mad Scientists Theory of Governance" be cited by someone important?

Nov 26, 6:57 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

75.94%chance

321986

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1679

610

Yann LeCun's new AI startup reaches $100M+ valuation by end of 2027?

Nov 20, 8:19 PMDec 31, 4:59 AM

68.89%chance

261921

OptionVotes

NO

YES

149

67

Will a serious competitor to NVIDIA in the AI chip space emerge before EOY 2027?

Mar 31, 7:40 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

72.9%chance

431906

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1292

856

Will Dome (YC startup) succeed before 2027?

Oct 23, 9:03 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

41.31%chance

5550

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1192

839

When will autonomous contract negotiation be viable?

Feb 25, 4:04 AMDec 31, 12:59 PM

240

OptionProbability

>=2033

2027

2028

2029

2030

2031

2032

2026

16

12

12

12

12

12

12

11

The Business Benefits of Mobile Entertainment Attractions

Aug 5, 10:18 AMDec 31, 10:17 AM

50%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

100

100

Chance an NLP nerd with shit grades and ouchie-demograaphics for top unis

Jan 24, 6:24 AM

60

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