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Prediction markets for Google for Startups

7. Sam Altman will step aside as CEO of OpenAI.

Dec 28, 11:31 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

6.77%chance

347169

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3717

270

6. Many more AI companies will begin building custom chips.

Dec 28, 11:29 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

90.5%chance

246554

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3092

324

Will Google Search market share be lower than 60% by Dec 2032?

Oct 19, 1:07 AMJan 1, 2:59 AM

34.11%chance

493399

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1390

1219

Will the "Mad Scientists Theory of Governance" be cited by someone important?

Nov 26, 6:57 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

72.71%chance

332036

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1534

660

Will a serious competitor to NVIDIA in the AI chip space emerge before EOY 2027?

Mar 31, 7:40 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

72.9%chance

431906

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1292

856

When will autonomous contract negotiation be viable?

Feb 25, 4:04 AMDec 31, 12:59 PM

3444

OptionProbability

2026

2027

2028

>=2033

2029

2030

2031

2032

42

24

17

5

3

3

3

3

Chance an NLP nerd with shit grades and ouchie-demograaphics for top unis

Jan 24, 6:24 AM

60

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