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Prediction markets for Google Research

Will a consumer AI meaningfully hack something to answer a question for a regular user by eoy 2027?

Jul 22, 2:36 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

70.54%chance

17534125

OptionVotes

NO

YES

14201

7469

7. Sam Altman will step aside as CEO of OpenAI.

Dec 28, 11:31 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

6.77%chance

347169

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3717

270

2. Details of SSI’s research and technology will leak. The big labs will make meaningful adjustments [See full title!]

Dec 28, 11:21 AMDec 29, 11:20 AM

17.78%chance

276710

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2154

466

Human-machine intelligence parity achieved before 2028

Jul 4, 3:45 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

62.44%chance

555211

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1461

556

Will prompt injection be effectively solved by end of 2026?

Mar 1, 5:47 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

10.27%chance

384389

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2957

338

Will there be a successful application of diffusion-like weight modification in LLMs before 2027?

Nov 23, 12:02 PMJan 2, 12:00 AM

90.22%chance

63575

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3037

329

Will keyboards be used to make most Google searches in 2027?

Feb 3, 12:51 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

95.08%chance

433051

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2883

797

Human-machine intelligence parity achieved before 2030

Jul 4, 3:44 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

73.79%chance

321826

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1595

604

Will prompt injection be effectively solved by end of 2027?

Mar 1, 7:55 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

15.91%chance

151771

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2299

435

Will Demis Hassabis's net worth exceed $3 billion USD by December 31, 2027?

Dec 7, 12:24 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

66.89%chance

8780

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1421

704

Will Google, Amazon, Apple, Microsoft get into pharma in the next 5 years?

Jun 13, 7:39 AMJun 13, 8:59 PM

66.67%chance

14463

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1089

935

Will a Russian actor be publicly attributed with stealing weights from a frontier AI developer before 2030?

Oct 30, 11:42 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

48.12%chance

4157

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1091

1011

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