Google Research News

Human-machine intelligence parity achieved before 2028

Jul 4, 3:45 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

62.44%chance

555211

OptionVotes

YES

1461

556

7. Sam Altman will step aside as CEO of OpenAI.

Dec 28, 11:31 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

9.07%chance

193036

OptionVotes

YES

3171

316

Human-machine intelligence parity achieved before 2030

Jul 4, 3:44 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

73.79%chance

321826

OptionVotes

YES

1595

604

Will keyboards be used to make most Google searches in 2027?

Feb 3, 12:51 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

90%chance

421541

OptionVotes

YES

1515

899

2. Details of SSI’s research and technology will leak. The big labs will make meaningful adjustments [See full title!]

Dec 28, 11:21 AMDec 29, 11:20 AM

36.9%chance

151455

OptionVotes

YES

1310

766

Will there be a successful application of diffusion-like weight modification in LLMs before 2027?

Nov 23, 12:02 PMJan 2, 12:00 AM

26.66%chance

51141

OptionVotes

YES

1659

603

When will I be able to summon a self-driving taxi in Tampa?

Oct 29, 1:13 AMJan 2, 1:19 AM

4950

OptionProbability

2027

2028

2026

2029

2030

2031 or later

Will Demis Hassabis's net worth exceed $3 billion USD by December 31, 2027?

Dec 7, 12:24 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

67.16%chance

5430

OptionVotes

YES

1430

699

Will Google, Amazon, Apple, Microsoft get into pharma in the next 5 years?

Jun 13, 7:39 AMJun 13, 8:59 PM

63.2%chance

13363

OptionVotes

YES

989

Will a Russian actor be publicly attributed with stealing weights from a frontier AI developer before 2030?

Oct 30, 11:42 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

50.47%chance

3107

OptionVotes

YES

1059

1041

Are Transformers “the last technology to do all of ML” (before AGI)?

Jan 24, 4:10 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

6103

OptionProbability

No, but transformers are still key (the breakthoughs augment upon transformers)

No, a paradigm shift is needed (e.g. JEPA, etc.

Yes: transformers scale the best

No, but the new technology is still a “large foundation model” (non-transformer e.g. Mamba, Diffusion)

When will a study be conducted on the effects of DMT on cluster headaches, and if a study is done what will it find?

Oct 23, 11:41 AMJan 1, 12:36 PM

593

OptionProbability

Study that investigates short-term effects of DMT as a treatment has positive findings

Study conducted and released by 2040

Study conducted and released by 2035

Study that investigates long-term effects of DMT as a treatment has positive findings

Study conducted and released by 2030

Google Research News

Prediction markets for Google Research

Prediction markets for Google Research

Prediction markets for Google Research

Human-machine intelligence parity achieved before 2028

7. Sam Altman will step aside as CEO of OpenAI.

Human-machine intelligence parity achieved before 2030

Will keyboards be used to make most Google searches in 2027?

2. Details of SSI’s research and technology will leak. The big labs will make meaningful adjustments [See full title!]

Will there be a successful application of diffusion-like weight modification in LLMs before 2027?

When will I be able to summon a self-driving taxi in Tampa?

Will Demis Hassabis's net worth exceed $3 billion USD by December 31, 2027?

Will Google, Amazon, Apple, Microsoft get into pharma in the next 5 years?

Will a Russian actor be publicly attributed with stealing weights from a frontier AI developer before 2030?

Are Transformers “the last technology to do all of ML” (before AGI)?

When will a study be conducted on the effects of DMT on cluster headaches, and if a study is done what will it find?

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