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Prediction markets for Google Research

Human-machine intelligence parity achieved before 2028

Jul 4, 3:45 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

62.44%chance

555211

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1461

556

Will prompt injection be effectively solved by end of 2026?

Mar 1, 5:47 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

10.29%chance

364370

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2953

339

7. Sam Altman will step aside as CEO of OpenAI.

Dec 28, 11:31 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

12.58%chance

193559

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2640

380

Human-machine intelligence parity achieved before 2030

Jul 4, 3:44 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

73.79%chance

321826

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1595

604

Will keyboards be used to make most Google searches in 2027?

Feb 3, 12:51 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

90%chance

421541

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1515

899

2. Details of SSI’s research and technology will leak. The big labs will make meaningful adjustments [See full title!]

Dec 28, 11:21 AMDec 29, 11:20 AM

35.17%chance

161505

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1360

738

Will prompt injection be effectively solved by end of 2027?

Mar 1, 7:55 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

21.1%chance

131217

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1934

517

Will there be a successful application of diffusion-like weight modification in LLMs before 2027?

Nov 23, 12:02 PMJan 2, 12:00 AM

26.66%chance

51141

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1659

603

Will Demis Hassabis's net worth exceed $3 billion USD by December 31, 2027?

Dec 7, 12:24 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

67.16%chance

5430

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1430

699

Will Google, Amazon, Apple, Microsoft get into pharma in the next 5 years?

Jun 13, 7:39 AMJun 13, 8:59 PM

63.2%chance

13363

OptionVotes

NO

YES

989

989

Will a Russian actor be publicly attributed with stealing weights from a frontier AI developer before 2030?

Oct 30, 11:42 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

50.47%chance

3107

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1059

1041

Will Aidan McLau's claim that very large models are "refusing instruction tuning" be validated by 2030?

Nov 22, 6:49 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

41.66%chance

455

OptionVotes

YES

NO

118

85

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