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Prediction markets for Google Startups

7. Sam Altman will step aside as CEO of OpenAI.

Dec 28, 11:31 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

7.04%chance

264557

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3638

276

Will Google Search market share be lower than 60% by Dec 2032?

Oct 19, 1:07 AMJan 1, 2:59 AM

35.49%chance

483349

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1417

1169

Will the "Mad Scientists Theory of Governance" be cited by someone important?

Nov 26, 6:57 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

74.89%chance

311936

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1629

626

Will a serious competitor to NVIDIA in the AI chip space emerge before EOY 2027?

Mar 31, 7:40 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

71.67%chance

421856

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1242

876

Yann LeCun's new AI startup reaches $100M+ valuation by end of 2027?

Nov 20, 8:19 PMDec 31, 4:59 AM

70.03%chance

231293

OptionVotes

NO

YES

153

65

6. Many more AI companies will begin building custom chips.

Dec 28, 11:29 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

34.71%chance

161055

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1374

730

Will Dome (YC startup) succeed before 2027?

Oct 23, 9:03 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

41.31%chance

5550

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1192

839

When will autonomous contract negotiation be viable?

Feb 25, 4:04 AMDec 31, 12:59 PM

240

OptionProbability

>=2033

2027

2028

2029

2030

2031

2032

2026

16

12

12

12

12

12

12

11

Chance an NLP nerd with shit grades and ouchie-demograaphics for top unis

Jan 24, 6:24 AM

60

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