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Top stories

ECB Holds Fire After Seven Cuts, Keeps Deposit Rate at 2%

ECB Holds Fire After Seven Cuts, Keeps Deposit Rate at 2%

Authors

39

10 days ago

Eurozone PMI Hits 11-Month High as Services Drive July Rebound

Eurozone PMI Hits 11-Month High as Services Drive July Rebound

Authors

7

10 days ago

ECB Warns Dollar Stablecoins Threaten Euro’s Monetary Autonomy

ECB Warns Dollar Stablecoins Threaten Euro’s Monetary Autonomy

Authors

15

5 days ago

BNP Paribas Scraps 2025 ECB Rate-Cut Call as Banks Delay Easing Outlook

Authors

6

9 days ago

ECB’s Villeroy Sees US Tariffs Having Little Inflation Impact, Growth Risks Remain

Authors

5

9 days ago

Eurozone Traders Cut September ECB Rate-Cut Odds to 25%

Authors

5

10 days ago

ECB Sets High Bar for Any September Rate Cut

Authors

7

9 days ago

ECB Sees Inflation Path On Track, Keeps Data-Driven Rate Stance

Authors

3

10 days ago

Prediction markets for Governing Council

Who will be elected President of Ireland in the next Irish presidential election?

Sep 6, 10:45 AMNov 1, 11:59 PM

165628

OptionProbability

Mairead McGuinness

Catherine Connolly

Michelle Keane

Micheál Martin

Frances Black

Michael McDowell

Linda Martin

Other

Peter Casey

Heather Humphreys

Cynthia Ní Mhurchú

Fintan O’Toole

Seán Kelly

Bertie Ahern

Conor McGregor

Enda Kenny

Fergus Finlay

Gerry Adams

17

17

14

8

6

5

5

5

4

4

3

3

2

1

1

1

1

1

Will Iran’s regime fall in 2025?

Jun 23, 6:46 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

9.5%chance

325477

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3087

324

Will Palestine become a full United Nations member state before 2030?

Nov 17, 7:38 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

15%chance

312810

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1844

761

Will Maduro be in office on January 1, 2026?

Jan 10, 1:29 AMJan 2, 5:59 AM

88.1%chance

162713

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2721

367

US city, county or state is renamed, min pop 250k, by mid 2028

Jul 26, 7:15 PMAug 1, 6:59 AM

47.66%chance

52539

OptionVotes

YES

NO

10480

9542

EU ends unanimous decision-making by EOY 2035?

Jul 14, 12:53 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

16.17%chance

101697

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2277

439

Will there be a United Nations General Assembly discussing the benefits and risks of AGI before June 2026?

Jun 13, 7:28 PMJun 3, 4:41 PM

46.74%chance

14929

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1068

937

Will a US Governor, Senator, President, or VP be in a open polyamourous relationship without scandal by the end of 2039?

Sep 19, 11:29 AMJan 1, 6:59 AM

23.82%chance

20709

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1242

901

Will Victoria, Australia legislate to replace Stamp Duty (property sales tax) with a land value tax before 2027?

Apr 19, 3:10 AMJan 1, 12:59 PM

25.27%chance

10377

OptionVotes

YES

NO

207

127

JA21 wins at least 4 seats at the 2025 Dutch Elections?

Jun 23, 8:58 AMDec 30, 11:59 PM

89.38%chance

6342

OptionVotes

NO

YES

290

34

Who will be the next leader of Hamas (free response)?

Oct 29, 6:32 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

3130

OptionProbability

Khalil al-Hayya

Khaled Mashal

Zaher Jabarin

Muhammad Ismail Darwish

Other

Mohammed Sinwar

32

16

16

16

16

3

Will the UK reach hydrogen-generated energy targets and related goals?

Jul 31, 5:53 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

00

OptionProbability

At least 1GW production capacity by 2025

At least 5GW production capacity by 2030

At least 10GW production capacity by 2035

Between 250-460TWh of hydrogen production by 2050

Less than 250TWh of hydrogen production by 2050

More than 460TWh of hydrogen production by 2050

50

50

50

50

50

50

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