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Prediction markets for Government of Canada

Canada submits formal application for EU membership before January 20, 2029

Jan 4, 7:47 PMJan 21, 12:00 AM

6.54%chance

268391

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3780

265

Will any part of Canada join the United States by 2030?

Jan 26, 6:12 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

14.99%chance

123983

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2382

420

Will Canada's "Online News Act" (bill C-18) be amended or repealed by 2027?

Aug 10, 3:59 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

78.94%chance

73804

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1009

985

Will there still be at least three Commonwealth Realms in 2028?

May 8, 12:08 PMJan 1, 3:59 PM

94.76%chance

13757

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1545

934

Next Canadian federal election by April 30th, 2027?

Apr 30, 5:32 PMApr 30, 11:59 PM

28.84%chance

5705

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1571

637

What will be true about Justin Trudeau's next partner?

Feb 17, 5:31 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

13553

OptionProbability

They identify as a woman

They are younger then him

They were born in Canada

They were previously married

They have a Master's or PhD

They have children

They have a Wikipedia page created before it is announced that they're dating JT

They identify as a visible minority

Their mother tongue is French

They are a school teacher

They are an employee or elected member of the government of Canada

95

76

75

66

52

50

34

24

24

17

14

How long will the Mark Carney liberal government last?

May 2, 1:42 PMMay 2, 1:42 PM

18516

OptionProbability

2 to 3 years

1 to 2 years

3 to 4 years

Full 4-year term or more

6 to 12 months

Less than 6 months

38

26

21

12

2

1

New pipeline project proposed in Canada in next 6 months?

Jun 8, 1:09 AMDec 8, 1:06 AM

39.86%chance

7441

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1228

814

If I remain living in Canada, will I be subject to any government sanction on speech before 2027?

Mar 27, 12:47 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

6.56%chance

6394

OptionVotes

YES

NO

500

103

Will Canada face a large-scale government surveillance scandal in 2025 (threshold: parliamentary hearings)

Jul 18, 10:35 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

22.57%chance

10350

OptionVotes

YES

NO

185

54

Will there still be at least nine Commonwealth Realms in 2028?

May 8, 12:07 PMJan 1, 3:59 PM

75.32%chance

11201

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1027

981

Will there still be at least twelve Commonwealth Realms in 2028?

May 8, 12:03 PMJan 1, 3:59 PM

70%chance

5145

OptionVotes

NO

YES

168

107

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