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Prediction markets for Government of India

What will the next world-wide crisis be?

Nov 18, 2:28 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

497048

OptionProbability

Nothing Ever Happens (Nothing Happens)

Direct military engagement between either G20 members, or the use of nuclear weapons

An AI kills a human without explicitly being given a task

Other (10m+ deaths)

Worldwide Pandemic

350+ million climate-displaced persons annually

US Treasury payment default or missed obligation

57

34

32

14

12

10

8

Will the Third Modi Government fall?

Jun 10, 6:47 AMJun 1, 6:29 PM

12.67%chance

254438

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2603

438

Will India extradite Sheikh Hasina to Bangladesh by EoY 2026?

Mar 18, 6:16 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

13%chance

151438

OptionVotes

YES

NO

259

39

Western major media calls Tibet Xizang before 2027?

Feb 25, 11:13 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

14.96%chance

71434

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2405

423

Will Sheikh Hasina end her exile and return to Bangladesh in 2026?

Sep 1, 1:22 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

1.15%chance

5985

OptionVotes

YES

NO

928

11

Will BJP lost in 2029 India Parliamentary Election?

Jul 17, 12:51 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

5.11%chance

3607

OptionVotes

YES

NO

431

23

China provides Russia >100k AI chips by 2030?

Oct 30, 12:17 PMJul 1, 10:59 PM

52.33%chance

6247

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1115

1009

Prediction markets legalized in India by 2035?

Dec 22, 7:01 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

29.99%chance

7157

OptionVotes

YES

NO

153

65

Yarlung Tsangpo dam by 2035?

Mar 31, 10:11 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

58.77%chance

772

OptionVotes

NO

YES

119

84

Will the Canada-India uranium supply agreement size exceed 2.5 billion USD on April 1, 2027?

Mar 2, 6:15 PMApr 1, 6:14 PM

33.78%chance

140

OptionVotes

YES

NO

140

71

Will a sitting head of state post a video of themselves dancing on TikTok or Instagram Reels by end of 2026?

Apr 17, 9:31 PMJan 1, 12:00 AM

56.62%chance

330

OptionVotes

NO

YES

207

194

Will the Canada-India uranium supply agreement size exceed 2.0 billion USD on April 1, 2027?

Mar 2, 6:14 PMApr 1, 6:14 PM

45.25%chance

110

OptionVotes

YES

NO

110

91

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