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Prediction markets for Government of India

Will the Third Modi Government fall?

Jun 10, 6:47 AMJun 1, 6:29 PM

16.86%chance

213546

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2174

512

If nuclear weapons are utilized in the India Pakistan conflict, which country will pull the trigger first.

May 8, 6:48 PMDec 31, 7:43 PM

91774

OptionProbability

Pakistan

India

71

29

How many predictions did the FT writers get wrong for 2025?

Jan 5, 4:19 PMDec 31, 9:59 PM

31268

OptionProbability

6

5

7

4

3

2

9 or more

0

1

8

35

17

16

12

6

4

3

2

2

2

Will India institutionalise same-sex marriage or civil unions before 2026?

Oct 17, 1:05 PMJan 31, 3:59 PM

16.77%chance

201263

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1606

821

How many G7 countries recognize Palestine by end of 2026?

Jul 29, 11:29 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

15548

Will India send astronauts to the moon before 2040?

Oct 19, 1:26 AMOct 18, 4:59 AM

78.84%chance

11510

OptionVotes

NO

YES

232

113

Western major media calls Tibet Xizang before 2027?

Feb 25, 11:13 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

32.72%chance

5481

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1434

697

Large-scale internet blackout in G20 country by EOY2025?

Jun 6, 12:39 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

20.98%chance

7213

OptionVotes

YES

NO

194

52

Western major media calls Tibet Xizang before 2026?

Feb 25, 11:13 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

36.35%chance

5181

OptionVotes

YES

NO

132

76

Will India extradite Sheikh Hasina to Bangladesh by EoY 2026?

Mar 18, 6:16 AMApr 2, 6:59 AM

40.19%chance

242

OptionVotes

YES

NO

122

82

Yarlung Tsangpo dam by 2035?

Mar 31, 10:11 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

46.64%chance

335

OptionVotes

YES

NO

107

93

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