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Government of India News

What will the next world-wide crisis be?

Nov 18, 2:28 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

486936

OptionProbability

Nothing Ever Happens (Nothing Happens)

Direct military engagement between either G20 members, or the use of nuclear weapons

An AI kills a human without explicitly being given a task

Other (10m+ deaths)

350+ million climate-displaced persons annually

US Treasury payment default or missed obligation

Worldwide Pandemic

55

37

32

14

10

8

7

Will the Third Modi Government fall?

Jun 10, 6:47 AMJun 1, 6:29 PM

12.67%chance

254438

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2603

438

Western major media calls Tibet Xizang before 2027?

Feb 25, 11:13 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

19.13%chance

71103

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2074

491

How many G7 countries recognize Palestine by end of 2026?

Jul 29, 11:29 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

21970

OptionProbability

Above 0

Above 1

Above 4

Above 6

100

100

60

4

2026 West Bengal Legislative Assembly Elections Winner

Jan 14, 1:07 AMApr 30, 11:59 PM

4930

OptionProbability

AITC

BJP

79

21

Will India and Bangladesh go to war by EOY 2026?

Jan 8, 12:09 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

4.63%chance

7506

OptionVotes

YES

NO

454

22

Will India extradite Sheikh Hasina to Bangladesh by EoY 2026?

Mar 18, 6:16 AMApr 2, 6:59 AM

11.4%chance

5317

OptionVotes

YES

NO

279

36

Which Money & Macro megatrends for 2026 will be correct?

Dec 25, 1:10 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

8260

OptionProbability

The AI bubble will NOT pop.

China will dominate the global economy.

The trade war will broaden.

More and more governments will hit a debt limit.

China will blockade Taiwan.

80

72

66

44

3

Will credible evidence emerge before 2027 that Meta can access the content of WhatsApp messages despite end-to-end encry

Jan 27, 10:51 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

13.66%chance

6187

OptionVotes

YES

NO

251

40

China provides Russia >100k AI chips by 2030?

Oct 30, 12:17 PMJul 1, 10:59 PM

51.45%chance

4170

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1095

1027

Prediction markets legalized in India by 2035?

Dec 22, 7:01 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

48.19%chance

599

OptionVotes

YES

NO

104

96

Yarlung Tsangpo dam by 2035?

Mar 31, 10:11 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

58.77%chance

772

OptionVotes

NO

YES

119

84

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