Government Regulations News

CATL receives license renewal for Yichun Lithium mine by end of Feb 2027?

Jun 9, 2:12 PMFeb 28, 11:59 PM

85.24%chance

73829372

OptionVotes

YES

252397

43577

Will the majority of new cars sold worldwide be electric before the end of 2030?

Apr 21, 8:36 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

50.48%chance

326121099

OptionVotes

YES

1001

973

Will the US enact AI regulation for all Mythos+ models in 2026?

Jun 16, 6:56 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

14.63%chance

2733820

OptionVotes

YES

24158

4139

Will the US implement some form of capital control by 2029?

Mar 9, 11:25 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

49.62%chance

5411110

OptionVotes

YES

6126

3286

Cycling, Israel-Premier Tech and Pro-Palestinian Protests Megamarket

Sep 16, 12:53 AMNov 3, 1:29 AM

175675

OptionProbability

Israel-Premier Tech voluntarily ends their partnership with Israel

A rider leaves Israel-Premier Tech and explicitly cites political reasons or concern for their safety due to protests as a reason for doing so

The Israel-Premier Tech team dissolves or completely changes ownership

A WorldTour cycling race outside of Spain is disrupted by pro-Palestine protests

Another WorldTour cycling race in Spain is disrupted by pro-Palestine protests

The Grand Depart of the 2026 Tour de France is moved outside of Spain

The Grand Depart of the 2026 Tour de France takes place in Spain, but at least one stage is disrupted by pro-Palestine protests

A significant cycling race (.1 or higher) is boycotted by at least 25% of participating riders because of the participation of Israel-Premier Tech

The UCI takes action to sanction Israel-Premier Tech, such as barring them from UCI races or requiring them to end their partnership with Israel or remove Israel from the title of their team

The organizer or overseeing government of a WorldTour race bars Israel-Premier Tech from participating, in contradiction to the regulations of the UCI

100

Would the $100k H-1B fee apply to intl. students graduating in the U.S. or switching from OPT?

Sep 23, 12:55 PMJan 20, 1:52 PM

25.35%chance

73975

OptionVotes

YES

5768

100

Will the United States ban AI research by the end of 2037?

Nov 10, 4:57 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

23.5%chance

1023802

OptionVotes

YES

1828

1592

Conditional on a negative consequence of AI that shocks governments into regulating AI occurring, what will it be?

Apr 24, 9:14 PMApr 24, 10:59 PM

773262

OptionProbability

An AI injuring or killing someone by accident

AIs taking jobs

An AI that appears friendly but then becomes treacherous and deceptive

Something porn-related

AIs attempting to covertly control or influence people or entities

An AI injuring or killing someone because it was told to

An AI injuring or killing someone because it decided to

An AI not being sufficiently woke

An AI escaping from safety confinement (an "AI box")

An AI created with malevolent goals, like ChaosGPT, becoming competent

An AI that devotes excessive amounts of resources to its goal, such as manufacturing paperclips

An AI that resists being switched off or destroyed

An AI that rewrites its own top-level goals

An AI that makes scientific advancements

An AI that is superintelligent and hence is uncontrollable, renders all jobs obsolete, and likely sees humans as inferior

EU ends unanimous decision-making by EOY 2035?

Jul 14, 12:53 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

23.11%chance

112422

OptionVotes

YES

1824

548

Will the "Mad Scientists Theory of Governance" be cited by someone important?

Nov 26, 6:57 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

75.94%chance

321986

OptionVotes

YES

1679

610

Will Polymarket.com be fined by U.S. government regulatory agencies in 2026?

Dec 11, 9:34 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

12.49%chance

5170

OptionVotes

YES

265

Should OpenAI be regulated by the US government?

May 17, 6:13 PM

110

Government Regulations News

Prediction markets for Government Regulations

Prediction markets for Government Regulations

Prediction markets for Government Regulations

CATL receives license renewal for Yichun Lithium mine by end of Feb 2027?

Will the majority of new cars sold worldwide be electric before the end of 2030?

Will the US enact AI regulation for all Mythos+ models in 2026?

Will the US implement some form of capital control by 2029?

Cycling, Israel-Premier Tech and Pro-Palestinian Protests Megamarket

Would the $100k H-1B fee apply to intl. students graduating in the U.S. or switching from OPT?

Will the United States ban AI research by the end of 2037?

Conditional on a negative consequence of AI that shocks governments into regulating AI occurring, what will it be?

EU ends unanimous decision-making by EOY 2035?

Will the "Mad Scientists Theory of Governance" be cited by someone important?

Will Polymarket.com be fined by U.S. government regulatory agencies in 2026?

Should OpenAI be regulated by the US government?

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