Government Regulations News

Will the majority of new cars sold worldwide be electric before the end of 2030?

Apr 21, 8:36 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

52%chance

321112088

OptionVotes

YES

1004

972

Will the US implement some form of capital control by 2029?

Mar 9, 11:25 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

49.62%chance

5411110

OptionVotes

YES

6126

3286

UK gov accepts all 47 Fingleton nuclear review recommendations by Q1 2026?

Nov 29, 7:47 PMMar 31, 11:59 PM

57.4%chance

1310262

OptionVotes

YES

10616

5054

Will a G7 country announce new quantum legislation within the next 2 months?

Jan 30, 6:26 AMApr 2, 6:18 AM

45%chance

294090

OptionVotes

YES

1106

905

Will the United States ban AI research by the end of 2037?

Nov 10, 4:57 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

24.24%chance

1013752

OptionVotes

YES

1843

1542

Conditional on a negative consequence of AI that shocks governments into regulating AI occurring, what will it be?

Apr 24, 9:14 PMApr 24, 10:59 PM

773262

OptionProbability

An AI injuring or killing someone by accident

AIs taking jobs

An AI that appears friendly but then becomes treacherous and deceptive

Something porn-related

AIs attempting to covertly control or influence people or entities

An AI injuring or killing someone because it was told to

An AI injuring or killing someone because it decided to

An AI not being sufficiently woke

An AI escaping from safety confinement (an "AI box")

An AI created with malevolent goals, like ChaosGPT, becoming competent

An AI that devotes excessive amounts of resources to its goal, such as manufacturing paperclips

An AI that resists being switched off or destroyed

An AI that rewrites its own top-level goals

An AI that makes scientific advancements

An AI that is superintelligent and hence is uncontrollable, renders all jobs obsolete, and likely sees humans as inferior

Cycling, Israel-Premier Tech and Pro-Palestinian Protests Megamarket

Sep 16, 12:53 AMNov 3, 1:29 AM

112409

OptionProbability

A rider leaves Israel-Premier Tech and explicitly cites political reasons or concern for their safety due to protests as a reason for doing so

Israel-Premier Tech voluntarily ends their partnership with Israel

The Israel-Premier Tech team dissolves or completely changes ownership

Another WorldTour cycling race in Spain is disrupted by pro-Palestine protests

A WorldTour cycling race outside of Spain is disrupted by pro-Palestine protests

The Grand Depart of the 2026 Tour de France takes place in Spain, but at least one stage is disrupted by pro-Palestine protests

A significant cycling race (.1 or higher) is boycotted by at least 25% of participating riders because of the participation of Israel-Premier Tech

The organizer or overseeing government of a WorldTour race bars Israel-Premier Tech from participating, in contradiction to the regulations of the UCI

The Grand Depart of the 2026 Tour de France is moved outside of Spain

The UCI takes action to sanction Israel-Premier Tech, such as barring them from UCI races or requiring them to end their partnership with Israel or remove Israel from the title of their team

100

EU ends unanimous decision-making by EOY 2035?

Jul 14, 12:53 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

25.17%chance

112322

OptionVotes

YES

1724

580

Would the $100k H-1B fee apply to intl. students graduating in the U.S. or switching from OPT?

Sep 23, 12:55 PMJan 20, 1:52 PM

36.6%chance

61975

OptionVotes

YES

6581

3799

Will the "Mad Scientists Theory of Governance" be cited by someone important?

Nov 26, 6:57 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

74.89%chance

311936

OptionVotes

YES

1629

626

Will Polymarket.com be fined by U.S. government regulatory agencies in 2026?

Dec 11, 9:34 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

12.49%chance

5170

OptionVotes

YES

265

Should OpenAI be regulated by the US government?

May 17, 6:13 PM

110

Government Regulations News

Prediction markets for Government Regulations

Prediction markets for Government Regulations

Prediction markets for Government Regulations

Will the majority of new cars sold worldwide be electric before the end of 2030?

Will the US implement some form of capital control by 2029?

UK gov accepts all 47 Fingleton nuclear review recommendations by Q1 2026?

Will a G7 country announce new quantum legislation within the next 2 months?

Will the United States ban AI research by the end of 2037?

Conditional on a negative consequence of AI that shocks governments into regulating AI occurring, what will it be?

Cycling, Israel-Premier Tech and Pro-Palestinian Protests Megamarket

EU ends unanimous decision-making by EOY 2035?

Would the $100k H-1B fee apply to intl. students graduating in the U.S. or switching from OPT?

Will the "Mad Scientists Theory of Governance" be cited by someone important?

Will Polymarket.com be fined by U.S. government regulatory agencies in 2026?

Should OpenAI be regulated by the US government?

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