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Top stories

UK Bank Stocks Slide as Think Tank Spurs Calls for £8 Billion Windfall Tax

UK Bank Stocks Slide as Think Tank Spurs Calls for £8 Billion Windfall Tax

Authors

17

3 months ago

Prediction markets for Government

Will Trump & Elon cut >250,000 government employees in 2025?

Nov 13, 2:32 AMDec 31, 7:59 AM

10.49%chance

14762203630

OptionVotes

YES

NO

25250

6415

Balance of Power: Who will control the government after the 2026 US federal elections?

Sep 19, 12:51 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

239344718

OptionProbability

R President, R Senate, D House

R Pres, D Senate, D House

R President, R Senate, R House - Republican Trifecta

R President, D Senate, R House

D President, D Senate, D House - Democrat Trifecta

D President, R Senate, R House

D President, D Senate, R House

D President, R Senate, D House

55

28

16

1

0

0

0

0

Will the government of the Islamic Republic of Iran fall by 2030?

Dec 16, 2:35 AMJan 1, 9:59 PM

52.77%chance

103119381

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1057

946

How will the US Government Shutdown end?

Oct 16, 2:06 PMDec 31, 3:05 PM

12152732

OptionProbability

Democrats make substantial concessions

Republicans back off and accept a mostly neutral CR

Other

Republicans go nuclear and pass their agenda

95

4

1

0

Will Ukrainian government accept a peace deal that includes the loss of contested lands in the east (Donetsk and/or Lugansk)

May 19, 12:55 PMDec 24, 4:59 AM

69.77%chance

25536410

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1545

604

Will the US government take control of OpenAI or its major technologies before 2030?

Nov 23, 11:29 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

21.32%chance

8821179

OptionVotes

YES

NO

13505

8680

Will the US Government lose its monopoly on violence within its borders before 2035?

Jun 16, 5:44 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

9.59%chance

7719985

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2716

1411

Salary withheld for 5000 full time US federal government employees on or before December 31, 2025

Feb 2, 8:57 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

13.08%chance

1817139

OptionVotes

YES

NO

24776

2392

Will the US Government issue a statement criticising the Code of Practice of the EU AI Act in 2025?

May 16, 10:35 PMDec 31, 11:21 PM

67.04%chance

303185

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2582

1615

Government is shutdown in February 2026?

Nov 12, 11:57 PMFeb 7, 11:59 PM

29.33%chance

241787

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2101

1123

Federal government fellowship approximating discontinued PMF program opens applications by EOY2030?

Apr 20, 6:28 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

52.62%chance

9702

OptionVotes

NO

YES

10538

9489

AI Governance Stock (Permanent)

Feb 9, 8:31 AMAug 11, 9:43 PM

431

OptionProbability

NO

YES

141

90

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