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Prediction markets for GPT Store

By the end of 2026, will we have transparency into any useful internal pattern within a Large Language Model whose semantics would have been unfamiliar to AI and cognitive science in 2006?

Sep 30, 5:54 PMFeb 1, 7:59 AM

5.29%chance

859583594

OptionVotes

YES

NO

88522

8160

If LMs store info as features in superposition, are there >300K features in GPT-2 small L7? (see desc)

May 29, 6:05 AMJan 2, 12:59 AM

59.25%chance

13286

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1009

990

GSD at work LLC receives $500+ in total payments through OpenAI marketplace/routing system by end-2027?

Aug 16, 9:29 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

56.4%chance

4133

OptionVotes

NO

YES

114

88

Transparency into any useful internal pattern in LLM by EOY 20XY whose semantics was unfamiliar to AI & cog sci in 20NN?

Oct 23, 1:34 AMFeb 1, 7:59 AM

422

OptionProbability

By 2036... In 2006

By 2030... In 2006

By 2028... in 2008

By 2028... in 2006

72

59

50

50

Which AI gave the best response to the White Lotus meme?

Mar 19, 10:01 AM

480

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