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Prediction markets for GPU

At any point of time in 2027 a single consumer-grade GPU hits a MSRP of $20,000 USD

Jan 2, 7:00 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

22.72%chance

121870

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1846

543

AI: 1500 SAT by 2028 (gpu)

Dec 31, 3:45 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

93%chance

131661

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2232

832

Will Extropic AI build thermodynamic computing hardware that runs an AI model faster/cheaper than GPU by 2030?

Mar 30, 11:57 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

32.86%chance

201545

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1086

706

By 2030, will China have reached GPU parity with the US?

Oct 17, 8:38 PMDec 24, 11:59 PM

55%chance

191041

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1006

989

Will Nvidia still retain over 50% market share of PC gamer GPU usage by 2030

Dec 16, 1:20 AMJan 2, 5:59 AM

61.92%chance

17472

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1278

777

Will CUDA remain a monopoly for GPU software through 2027?

Dec 18, 6:14 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

56.95%chance

15372

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1002

977

AI: 1580 SAT by 2028 (gpu)

Mar 17, 11:55 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

74%chance

10331

OptionVotes

NO

YES

248

182

Can model 90% as good as o4-mini be created with open source and <$500 GPU compute?

May 9, 4:25 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

17.58%chance

8307

OptionVotes

YES

NO

218

47

Will Grand Theft Auto 6 have the minimum requirement of a GPU on par or weaker than a GTX 1080?

Dec 9, 4:34 PMDec 31, 9:59 PM

50.59%chance

6107

OptionVotes

YES

NO

155

86

Conditional on no Doom by 2030, will China have reached GPU parity with the US?

Oct 17, 8:24 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

26%chance

5103

OptionVotes

YES

NO

122

70

Open "Nano Banana Pro"‑Level Model on a Gaming GPU by 2028?

Nov 23, 4:52 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

68.3%chance

485

OptionVotes

NO

YES

147

68

Before 2028, will a GPU the same or smaller die size as b100 achieve 2x or better max throughput on GPT-oss-120b?

Dec 22, 6:02 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

50%chance

122

OptionVotes

NO

YES

100

100

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