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Prediction markets for GPU

Did DeepSeek lie about the GPU compute budget they used in the training of v3?

Jan 25, 5:04 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

4.78%chance

7553121

OptionVotes

YES

NO

46557

2925

Will a single model running on a single consumer GPU (<1.5k 2020 USD) outperform GPT-3 175B on all benchmarks in the original paper by 2025?

Apr 8, 5:18 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

86.88%chance

303978

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1252

924

Will Extropic AI build thermodynamic computing hardware that runs an AI model faster/cheaper than GPU by 2030?

Mar 30, 11:57 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

38.18%chance

161321

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1148

591

By 2030, will China have reached GPU parity with the US?

Oct 17, 8:38 PMDec 24, 11:59 PM

53.46%chance

191008

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1018

973

Will we see a public GPU compute sharing pool for LLM model training or inference before 2026 ?

Feb 20, 6:59 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

82.43%chance

21938

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1235

864

AI: 1500 SAT by 2028 (gpu)

Dec 31, 3:45 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

85.58%chance

12570

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1142

953

Will Nvidia still retain over 50% market share of PC gamer GPU usage by 2030

Dec 16, 1:20 AMJan 2, 5:59 AM

60.48%chance

15409

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1241

801

Will CUDA remain a monopoly for GPU software through 2027?

Dec 18, 6:14 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

56.95%chance

15372

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1002

977

AI: 1580 SAT by 2028 (gpu)

Mar 17, 11:55 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

66%chance

9272

OptionVotes

YES

NO

206

191

Will Grand Theft Auto 6 have the minimum requirement of a GPU on par or weaker than a GTX 1080?

Dec 9, 4:34 PMDec 31, 9:59 PM

50.59%chance

6107

OptionVotes

YES

NO

155

86

Conditional on no Doom by 2030, will China have reached GPU parity with the US?

Oct 17, 8:24 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

26%chance

5103

OptionVotes

YES

NO

122

70

Bolt Graphics releases Zeus GPU developer kits by EOY2025?

Jul 2, 7:34 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

46.19%chance

333

OptionVotes

YES

NO

509

501

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