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Prediction markets for GPU

At any point of time in 2027 a single consumer-grade GPU hits a MSRP of $20,000 USD

Jan 2, 7:00 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

26.79%chance

162171

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1655

606

AI: 1500 SAT by 2028 (gpu)

Dec 31, 3:45 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

93.34%chance

141761

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2332

825

Will Extropic AI build thermodynamic computing hardware that runs an AI model faster/cheaper than GPU by 2030?

Mar 30, 11:57 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

28.15%chance

231671

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1029

835

By 2030, will China have reached GPU parity with the US?

Oct 17, 8:38 PMDec 24, 11:59 PM

55%chance

221142

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1006

989

When will a single-unit GPU with 80GB of VRAM cost less to buy than the average American's weekly earnings?

Apr 23, 2:44 AMJan 2, 5:59 AM

181040

OptionProbability

2036-2040

2030

2031-2035

2029

2041 or later/Never

2028

2027

2026

2024

2025

72

71

71

61

60

43

33

12

0

0

Will Nvidia still retain over 50% market share of PC gamer GPU usage by 2030

Dec 16, 1:20 AMJan 2, 5:59 AM

69.96%chance

18722

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1528

648

Will CUDA remain a monopoly for GPU software through 2027?

Dec 18, 6:14 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

54.12%chance

17454

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1052

915

AI: 1580 SAT by 2028 (gpu)

Mar 17, 11:55 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

75.64%chance

11346

OptionVotes

NO

YES

263

177

Will Nvidia launch an RTX 5090 Ti, Titan, or equivalent flagship GPU before 2028?

May 16, 10:50 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

39.09%chance

4340

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1023

985

AI: When will a gpu-box be smarter than a person?

Dec 15, 5:53 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

58.95%chance

8217

OptionProbability

NO

YES

391

317

Will Grand Theft Auto 6 have the minimum requirement of a GPU on par or weaker than a GTX 1080?

Dec 9, 4:34 PMDec 31, 9:59 PM

50.59%chance

6107

OptionVotes

YES

NO

155

86

Will SpaceX / xAI have a functioning space-based datacentre with 10K or more H100-class (or better) GPU's by 2032?

Feb 5, 4:21 AMDec 31, 1:59 PM

28.94%chance

575

OptionVotes

YES

NO

157

64

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