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Prediction markets for GPU

At any point of time in 2027 a single consumer-grade GPU hits a MSRP of $20,000 USD

Jan 2, 7:00 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

14.78%chance

91490

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2403

417

Will Extropic AI build thermodynamic computing hardware that runs an AI model faster/cheaper than GPU by 2030?

Mar 30, 11:57 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

40.84%chance

171389

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1180

543

By 2030, will China have reached GPU parity with the US?

Oct 17, 8:38 PMDec 24, 11:59 PM

53.46%chance

191008

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1018

973

AI: 1500 SAT by 2028 (gpu)

Dec 31, 3:45 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

85.58%chance

12570

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1142

953

Will Nvidia still retain over 50% market share of PC gamer GPU usage by 2030

Dec 16, 1:20 AMJan 2, 5:59 AM

59.89%chance

16419

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1225

811

Will CUDA remain a monopoly for GPU software through 2027?

Dec 18, 6:14 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

56.95%chance

15372

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1002

977

Can model 90% as good as o4-mini be created with open source and <$500 GPU compute?

May 9, 4:25 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

11.65%chance

7297

OptionVotes

YES

NO

278

37

AI: 1580 SAT by 2028 (gpu)

Mar 17, 11:55 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

66%chance

9272

OptionVotes

YES

NO

206

191

AI: When will a gpu-box be smarter than a person?

Dec 15, 5:53 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

58.95%chance

8217

OptionProbability

NO

YES

391

317

Will Grand Theft Auto 6 have the minimum requirement of a GPU on par or weaker than a GTX 1080?

Dec 9, 4:34 PMDec 31, 9:59 PM

50.59%chance

6107

OptionVotes

YES

NO

155

86

Conditional on no Doom by 2030, will China have reached GPU parity with the US?

Oct 17, 8:24 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

26%chance

5103

OptionVotes

YES

NO

122

70

Will SpaceX / xAI have a functioning space-based datacentre with 10K or more H100-class (or better) GPU's by 2032?

Feb 5, 4:21 AMDec 31, 1:59 PM

25.71%chance

470

OptionVotes

YES

NO

170

59

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