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Prediction markets for GPU

Did DeepSeek lie about the GPU compute budget they used in the training of v3?

Jan 25, 5:04 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

12.58%chance

7132050

OptionVotes

YES

NO

25925

4669

Will a single model running on a single consumer GPU (<1.5k 2020 USD) outperform GPT-3 175B on all benchmarks in the original paper by 2025?

Apr 8, 5:18 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

86.3%chance

293927

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1201

932

Will Extropic AI build thermodynamic computing hardware that runs an AI model faster/cheaper than GPU by 2030?

Mar 30, 11:57 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

36.47%chance

151225

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1128

625

By 2030, will China have reached GPU parity with the US?

Oct 17, 8:38 PMDec 24, 11:59 PM

53.46%chance

191008

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1018

973

Will we see a public GPU compute sharing pool for LLM model training or inference before 2026 ?

Feb 20, 6:59 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

85.83%chance

19828

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1502

814

When will a single-unit GPU with 80GB of VRAM cost less to buy than the average American's weekly earnings?

Apr 23, 2:44 AMJan 2, 5:59 AM

14613

OptionProbability

2036-2040

2030

2031-2035

2028

2029

2027

2041 or later/Never

2026

2025

2024

72

71

71

69

68

66

54

34

24

10

AI: 1500 SAT by 2028 (gpu)

Dec 31, 3:45 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

85.58%chance

12570

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1142

953

Will Nvidia still retain over 50% market share of PC gamer GPU usage by 2030

Dec 16, 1:20 AMJan 2, 5:59 AM

60.48%chance

15409

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1241

801

Will CUDA remain a monopoly for GPU software through 2027?

Dec 18, 6:14 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

56.42%chance

15363

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1012

965

Can model 90% as good as o4-mini be created with open source and <$500 GPU compute?

May 9, 4:25 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

13.73%chance

6272

OptionVotes

YES

NO

253

41

AMD's discrete GPU market share increases in Q2 2025?

Jun 7, 9:42 AMDec 31, 12:59 AM

57.4%chance

8142

OptionVotes

NO

YES

311

233

Bolt Graphics releases Zeus GPU developer kits by EOY2025?

Jul 2, 7:34 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

45.65%chance

228

OptionVotes

YES

NO

515

496

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