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Prediction markets for Grade

Will Iran enrich uranium to weapons grade in 2026?

Dec 29, 11:10 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

5.31%chance

214959

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4224

237

Will ChatBots become an indispensable tool for most children's K-12 grade education in the United States before the end of the decade (<2030)?

Jan 3, 2:55 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

50%chance

443928

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1250

788

At any point of time in 2027 a single consumer-grade GPU hits a MSRP of $20,000 USD

Jan 2, 7:00 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

22.72%chance

121870

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1846

543

Will an AI be able to generate industrial grade CAD parts by a prompt or an annotated draft before 2027 ?

Feb 27, 1:34 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

85.98%chance

351386

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1667

803

Waymo achieves aviation-grade safety at 2 billion miles with 0 at-fault fatalities?

Sep 27, 7:46 AMJan 1, 8:45 AM

52.83%chance

5546

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1058

945

Will the majority of US high school standardized tests be administered and graded by AI systems by 2030?

Jun 29, 5:42 AMJan 7, 5:59 AM

39.06%chance

8320

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1249

801

What will the second ascensionist of Blackflip Sit grade it?

Apr 13, 8:13 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

140

OptionProbability

V16/17 (8C+/9A)

V17 or higher (9A or higher)

V16 or lower (8C+ or lower)

No specific grade

29

29

21

21

Will China coated spherical graphite (battery grade) exceed 3500 USD/t on June 30, 2026?

Apr 7, 2:28 PMJun 30, 4:00 AM

61.35%chance

226

OptionVotes

NO

YES

126

79

Will China coated spherical graphite (battery grade) exceed 2000 USD/t on June 30, 2026?

Apr 7, 2:28 PMJun 30, 4:00 AM

56.94%chance

115

OptionVotes

NO

YES

115

87

Will China coated spherical graphite (battery grade) exceed 3500 USD/t on July 31, 2026?

Apr 7, 2:28 PMJul 31, 4:00 AM

56.94%chance

115

OptionVotes

NO

YES

115

87

Will China coated spherical graphite (battery grade) exceed 2000 USD/t on July 31, 2026?

Apr 7, 2:28 PMJul 31, 4:00 AM

56.94%chance

115

OptionVotes

NO

YES

115

87

Will the second ascentionist of Elias Iagnemma's Exodia agree with the V18 (9A+) grade?

May 31, 7:09 AMMay 31, 7:06 AM

50.25%chance

15

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1005

995

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