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Prediction markets for Grade

Which release of Linux kernel will have the first Rust-only driver for consumer-grade hardware ?

Mar 1, 5:59 PMJan 31, 11:59 PM

106676

OptionProbability

7.0

Other

6.25

6.24

6.23

6.22

6.21

6.20

6.19

6.18

never

6.8

6.9

6.10

6.11

6.12

6.14

6.15

6.17

6.13

6.16

14

14

13

12

11

10

8

5

4

2

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

0

0

Will ChatBots become an indispensable tool for most children's K-12 grade education in the United States before the end of the decade (<2030)?

Jan 3, 2:55 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

50%chance

443928

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1250

788

Will Iran enrich uranium to weapons grade in 2026?

Dec 29, 11:10 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

10.45%chance

182964

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2927

342

At any point of time in 2027 a single consumer-grade GPU hits a MSRP of $20,000 USD

Jan 2, 7:00 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

14.27%chance

101540

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2453

408

Will an AI be able to generate industrial grade CAD parts by a prompt or an annotated draft before 2027 ?

Feb 27, 1:34 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

85.98%chance

351386

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1667

803

When will Brazil achieve Investment Grade status according to one of the major credit rating agencies?

Oct 16, 12:24 PMApr 1, 2:59 AM

101020

OptionProbability

before March 2026

before March 2025

before June 2025

before September 2025

before December 2025

5

0

0

0

0

Will U.S. production of battery-grade lithium exceed 10% of global supply by the end of 2030?

Dec 10, 1:07 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

61.68%chance

14754

OptionVotes

NO

YES

127

79

Waymo achieves aviation-grade safety at 2 billion miles with 0 at-fault fatalities?

Sep 27, 7:46 AMJan 1, 8:45 AM

52.83%chance

5546

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1058

945

Will the majority of US high school standardized tests be administered and graded by AI systems by 2030?

Jun 29, 5:42 AMJan 7, 5:59 AM

39.06%chance

7290

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1249

801

Number symbolism in US curriculum 6th grade or below, promulgatory or sceptical, before midnight Christmas Eve 2027?

Nov 29, 6:22 AMDec 23, 11:59 PM

21.69%chance

290

OptionVotes

YES

NO

190

53

If AGI is created before 2030, will it be able to run on consumer grade computers like Yacine/Kache predicts?

Sep 6, 3:33 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

50%chance

468

OptionVotes

NO

YES

100

100

What will the second ascensionist of Blackflip Sit grade it?

Apr 13, 8:13 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

120

OptionProbability

V16 or lower (8C+ or lower)

V16/17 (8C+/9A)

V17 or higher (9A or higher)

No specific grade

29

29

21

21

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