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Prediction markets for Grade

Will ChatBots become an indispensable tool for most children's K-12 grade education in the United States before the end of the decade (<2030)?

Jan 3, 2:55 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

50%chance

443928

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1250

788

Will Iran enrich uranium to weapons grade in 2026?

Dec 29, 11:10 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

6.9%chance

193767

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3674

272

At any point of time in 2027 a single consumer-grade GPU hits a MSRP of $20,000 USD

Jan 2, 7:00 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

15.88%chance

101689

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2304

435

Will an AI be able to generate industrial grade CAD parts by a prompt or an annotated draft before 2027 ?

Feb 27, 1:34 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

85.98%chance

351386

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1667

803

What grades will I climb this season?

Mar 14, 4:49 PMSep 30, 11:59 PM

41019

OptionProbability

5.8

5.9

5.10a

5.10b

5.10c

93

86

71

50

39

Will my midterm grades for these subjects be >=7.5 out of 10?

Mar 10, 2:20 PMApr 10, 2:12 PM

35.65%chance

41017

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1343

744

Waymo achieves aviation-grade safety at 2 billion miles with 0 at-fault fatalities?

Sep 27, 7:46 AMJan 1, 8:45 AM

52.83%chance

5546

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1058

945

Am I going to get to college level piano by the end of 7th grade

Jan 9, 12:33 PMJun 1, 11:37 AM

23.53%chance

4317

OptionVotes

YES

NO

180

55

Will the majority of US high school standardized tests be administered and graded by AI systems by 2030?

Jun 29, 5:42 AMJan 7, 5:59 AM

38.49%chance

8305

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1264

791

Number symbolism in US curriculum 6th grade or below, promulgatory or sceptical, before midnight Christmas Eve 2027?

Nov 29, 6:22 AMDec 23, 11:59 PM

21.69%chance

290

OptionVotes

YES

NO

190

53

If AGI is created before 2030, will it be able to run on consumer grade computers like Yacine/Kache predicts?

Sep 6, 3:33 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

50%chance

468

OptionVotes

NO

YES

100

100

Will there be a consumer grade solution for PC cooling via oil submersion similar to liquidstack, by the year 2030?

Jan 15, 2:40 AMJan 1, 6:29 PM

59.02%chance

110

OptionVotes

NO

YES

80

62

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