Gradient News

Will a vacuum lift technology be discovered or invented before 2040?

Jun 28, 12:58 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

14.25%chance

281570

OptionVotes

YES

1526

837

By EOY 2034, what unexpected views of math will be changed by (superhuman) AI?

Mar 21, 9:42 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

23892

OptionProbability

At least one of the six left Millennium problems is found with a counter-example

Shinichi Mochizuki is right or almost right about abc conjecture

A unified framework for gravitation and quantum theory is proposed that is not string theory

Neural Networks are explainable and can be trained without gradient descent with better performance.

At least one of the six left Millennium problems is undecidable

No AI will be powerful enough to directly (as a necessary condition) lead to a significant discovery in math.

A counterexample was found for Goldbach's conjecture

P vs. NP will be trivial (i.e., provable using simple methods taught in undergrad classes, e.g., with a counter-example)

Will "Did Claude 3 Opus align itself via gradient h..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?

Feb 22, 3:23 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

72.05%chance

11782

OptionVotes

YES

1472

Which Bittensor subnet from SN1–SN64 will be the most valuable at the end of 2026?

Mar 28, 11:25 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

8677

OptionProbability

SN64

SN4

SN9

SN8

SN51

SN1

SN2

SN3

SN5

SN6

SN7

SN10

SN11

SN12

SN13

SN14

SN15

SN16

SN17

SN18

SN19

SN20

SN21

SN22

SN23

SN24

SN25

SN26

SN27

SN28

SN29

SN30

SN31

SN32

SN33

SN34

SN35

SN36

SN37

SN38

SN39

SN40

SN41

SN42

SN43

SN44

SN45

SN46

SN47

SN48

SN49

SN50

SN52

SN53

SN54

SN55

SN56

SN57

SN58

SN59

SN60

SN61

SN62

SN63

Will a Mythos-tier-at-cybersecurity open-source model be released before end of 2027?

Jul 24, 3:01 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

64.62%chance

10601

OptionVotes

YES

1545

362

Will DeepSeek's Manifold-Constrained Hyper-Connections (mHC) be used publically by another big lab in 2026?

Jan 6, 10:08 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

38.71%chance

11597

OptionVotes

YES

872

267

Is Claude Mythos 5 an alignment faker like Opus 3?

Jul 1, 1:28 AMJul 1, 1:16 AM

52.64%chance

7499

OptionVotes

YES

1054

949

Conditional on a seed AI existing, will it be able to align its future iterations with itself?

Feb 23, 7:57 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

69.51%chance

7172

OptionVotes

YES

347

171

Will async SGD become the main large-scale NN optimization method before 2031?

May 8, 9:38 AMMar 5, 10:59 PM

71.72%chance

4161

OptionVotes

YES

159

By the time we reach AGI, will backpropagation be used in its weights optimization?

Jul 22, 1:05 PMJan 1, 5:14 PM

67.91%chance

8146

OptionVotes

YES

145

Conditional on a seed AI existing, will it actually create successors?

Feb 24, 1:16 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

64.3%chance

220

OptionVotes

YES

110

Does Adam Marblestone have a steeper Kardashev gradient than @basedbeffjezos

Jan 26, 11:53 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

57.51%chance

216

OptionVotes

YES

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Will a vacuum lift technology be discovered or invented before 2040?

By EOY 2034, what unexpected views of math will be changed by (superhuman) AI?

Will "Did Claude 3 Opus align itself via gradient h..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?

Which Bittensor subnet from SN1–SN64 will be the most valuable at the end of 2026?

Will a Mythos-tier-at-cybersecurity open-source model be released before end of 2027?

Will DeepSeek's Manifold-Constrained Hyper-Connections (mHC) be used publically by another big lab in 2026?

Is Claude Mythos 5 an alignment faker like Opus 3?

Conditional on a seed AI existing, will it be able to align its future iterations with itself?

Will async SGD become the main large-scale NN optimization method before 2031?

By the time we reach AGI, will backpropagation be used in its weights optimization?

Conditional on a seed AI existing, will it actually create successors?

Does Adam Marblestone have a steeper Kardashev gradient than @basedbeffjezos

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