Gradient News

Will a vacuum lift technology be discovered or invented before 2040?

Jun 28, 12:58 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

14.25%chance

281570

OptionVotes

YES

1526

837

Will an exotic physics catastrophe wipe out humanity by 2100?

Jul 23, 1:43 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

1.51%chance

5744

OptionVotes

YES

423

By EOY 2034, what unexpected views of math will be changed by (superhuman) AI?

Mar 21, 9:42 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

20717

OptionProbability

At least one of the six left Millennium problems is found with a counter-example

At least one of the six left Millennium problems is undecidable

A unified framework for gravitation and quantum theory is proposed that is not string theory

Neural Networks are explainable and can be trained without gradient descent with better performance.

No AI will be powerful enough to directly (as a necessary condition) lead to a significant discovery in math.

Shinichi Mochizuki is right or almost right about abc conjecture

P vs. NP will be trivial (i.e., provable using simple methods taught in undergrad classes, e.g., with a counter-example)

Will "Did Claude 3 Opus align itself via gradient h..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?

Feb 22, 3:23 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

63.89%chance

7691

OptionVotes

YES

1397

128

Which Bittensor subnet from SN1–SN64 will be the most valuable at the end of 2026?

Mar 28, 11:25 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

8677

OptionProbability

SN64

SN4

SN9

SN8

SN51

SN1

SN2

SN3

SN5

SN6

SN7

SN10

SN11

SN12

SN13

SN14

SN15

SN16

SN17

SN18

SN19

SN20

SN21

SN22

SN23

SN24

SN25

SN26

SN27

SN28

SN29

SN30

SN31

SN32

SN33

SN34

SN35

SN36

SN37

SN38

SN39

SN40

SN41

SN42

SN43

SN44

SN45

SN46

SN47

SN48

SN49

SN50

SN52

SN53

SN54

SN55

SN56

SN57

SN58

SN59

SN60

SN61

SN62

SN63

Will DeepSeek's Manifold-Constrained Hyper-Connections (mHC) be used publically by another big lab in 2026?

Jan 6, 10:08 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

36.01%chance

10577

OptionVotes

YES

906

247

Conditional on a seed AI existing, will it be able to align its future iterations with itself?

Feb 23, 7:57 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

69.51%chance

7172

OptionVotes

YES

347

171

By the time we reach AGI, will backpropagation be used in its weights optimization?

Jul 22, 1:05 PMJan 1, 5:14 PM

67.91%chance

8146

OptionVotes

YES

145

Will China's Darwin neuromorphic chip create an LLM in 2026?

Nov 29, 9:50 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

29.39%chance

275

OptionVotes

YES

155

Which paper will win the Gödel prize in 2026

Jul 21, 7:03 PMJun 30, 11:59 PM

160

OptionProbability

Other

Simulating Time With Square-Root Space

MIP* = RE

The Complexity of Gradient Descent: CLS = PPAD ∩ PLS

Graph Isomorphism in Quasipolynomial Time

A Dichotomy Theorem for Nonuniform CSPs

Superpolynomial Lower Bounds Against Low-Depth Algebraic Circuits

An Average-Case Depth Hierarchy Theorem for Boolean Circuits

Learning Algorithms from Natural Proofs

Deciding Parity Games in Quasi-polynomial Time

A Proof of the CSP Dichotomy Conjecture

Induced subgraphs of hypercubes and a proof of the Sensitivity Conjecture

Conditional on a seed AI existing, will it actually create successors?

Feb 24, 1:16 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

64.3%chance

220

OptionVotes

YES

110

Does Adam Marblestone have a steeper Kardashev gradient than @basedbeffjezos

Jan 26, 11:53 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

57.51%chance

216

OptionVotes

YES

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Prediction markets for Gradient

Prediction markets for Gradient

Prediction markets for Gradient

Will a vacuum lift technology be discovered or invented before 2040?

Will an exotic physics catastrophe wipe out humanity by 2100?

By EOY 2034, what unexpected views of math will be changed by (superhuman) AI?

Will "Did Claude 3 Opus align itself via gradient h..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?

Which Bittensor subnet from SN1–SN64 will be the most valuable at the end of 2026?

Will DeepSeek's Manifold-Constrained Hyper-Connections (mHC) be used publically by another big lab in 2026?

Conditional on a seed AI existing, will it be able to align its future iterations with itself?

By the time we reach AGI, will backpropagation be used in its weights optimization?

Will China's Darwin neuromorphic chip create an LLM in 2026?

Which paper will win the Gödel prize in 2026

Conditional on a seed AI existing, will it actually create successors?

Does Adam Marblestone have a steeper Kardashev gradient than @basedbeffjezos

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