OptionProbability
Any time after 2026, or never (just a week away...)
Oct/Nov/Dec 2026 (Q4)
Jul/Aug/Sep 2026 (Q3)
Jul/Aug/Sep 2024 (Q3)
Oct/Nov/Dec 2024 (Q4)
Jan/Feb/Mar 2025 (Q1)
Apr/May/Jun 2025 (Q2)
Jul/Aug/Sep 2025 (Q3)
Oct/Nov/Dec 2025 (Q4)
Jan/Feb/Mar 2026 (Q1)
Apr/May/Jun 2026 (Q2)
85
3
2
1
Apr '28: Bipedal robots meaningfully assist human tradespeople in their work
Dec '28: AI systems able to autonomously design their successors (RSI)
Nov '26: AI good enough at biology to both advance science and potentially proliferate bioweapon risks
Nov '27: Autonomous companies exist and generate $10m+ revenues
Apr '27: A team of humans collaborating with AI will make a Nobel-winning discovery
55
47
46
45
OptionVotes
YES
NO
272
158
