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Grand Base News

Will the ARC AGI Grand Prize be claimed before January 2027?

Oct 4, 11:38 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

44.11%chance

8519324

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1921

50

Will America send troops to Iran?

Jan 13, 4:44 PMDec 31, 4:42 PM

40.15%chance

9916160

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1165

1052

Will the ARC AGI Grand Prize be claimed before 2030?

Oct 1, 5:01 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

80.82%chance

5110257

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1646

86

If I buy physical indium for investment, will I regret it in 5 years from now?

May 24, 1:59 AMMay 5, 3:59 AM

58.04%chance

828232

OptionVotes

NO

YES

12716

9569

Will the Audi works Formula 1 team win a Grand Prix in 2026, its first season?

Jun 11, 8:44 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

4.68%chance

317809

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4517

222

In what year will the ARC AGI Grand Prize be claimed?

Jun 21, 6:02 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

62678

OptionProbability

2025-2026

2027-2028

2029-2030

2031-2032

2033-2034

2035-2036

2037-2038

2039-2040

40

38

4

4

4

4

4

2

Will Pogacar or Vingegaard be stripped of any grand tour title before 2027?

Jul 2, 9:19 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

6.35%chance

112465

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2797

63

When will LLMs be better at Paradox grand strategy games than the in-game AI for NPCs?

Mar 23, 3:23 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

6905

OptionProbability

2028

2029

2030

2031

2032+

2027

2026

2025

28

13

13

13

13

10

8

3

Will WW3 happen before GTA7?

Dec 1, 2:32 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

30.18%chance

17457

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1101

562

How many grand slams will there be in Major League Baseball in 2026?

Sep 29, 4:39 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

180

OptionProbability

110 or more

120 or more

130 or more

140 or more

150 or more

160 or more

83

50

50

50

34

13

Will there be a Grand Theft Auto or Midtown Madness clone based on the real world in Google Maps by 2028?

Oct 4, 2:35 AMOct 11, 3:59 AM

56.57%chance

745

OptionVotes

NO

YES

177

146

How long to beat GTA VI (Main + Extra) on HowLongToBeat, as of end of 2026?

Jun 24, 5:15 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

00

OptionProbability

Under 30h

30h to under 40h

40h to under 50h

50h to under 60h

60h to under 70h

70h to under 80h

80h to under 90h

90h to under 100h

100h or more

N/A — no qualifying value (see rules)

10

10

10

10

10

10

10

10

10

10

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