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Prediction markets for Grand Games

Will Grand Theft Auto 6 be released as the next rockstar game?

Jan 17, 12:05 AMDec 31, 1:29 PM

90.74%chance

447036

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2398

669

Will Hideo Kojima's new Physint game release before Grand Theft Auto 7?

Feb 3, 7:45 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

91.01%chance

162615

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2801

625

When will LLMs be better at Paradox grand strategy games than the in-game AI for NPCs?

Mar 23, 3:23 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

61105

OptionProbability

2028

2029

2030

2031

2032+

2027

2026

2025

28

13

13

13

13

10

8

2

Will Paradox Interactive publish a grand strategy game set in 2000s/2010s before 2031?

May 4, 12:08 PMMar 5, 10:59 PM

11.77%chance

131073

OptionVotes

YES

NO

274

37

Will Paradox release a NEW grand strategy game that covers the year 866 as part of its unmodded timeline by end 2029?

Feb 15, 8:16 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

20.4%chance

3798

OptionVotes

YES

NO

198

51

Will Paradox Interactive publish a fantasy grand strategy game before the end of 2027?

Dec 31, 2:40 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

42.3%chance

26792

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1128

887

Will Paradox Interactive publish a fantasy grand strategy game before 2030?

Dec 31, 7:27 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

57.48%chance

17719

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1215

507

Will Ethiopia recognize Somaliland before the video game Grand Theft Auto 6 is released?

Dec 28, 6:26 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

12.64%chance

12454

OptionVotes

YES

NO

263

38

Will Paradox Interactive publish a Cold War grand strategy game before the end of 2027?

Dec 31, 7:28 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

16.55%chance

12408

OptionVotes

YES

NO

382

72

Which characters from previous Grand Theft Auto games will appear in Grand Theft Auto VI?

Dec 28, 11:11 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

6283

OptionProbability

Lazlow Jones

Lamar Davis

Ron Jakowski

"Little" Jacob Hughes

Al Di Napoli

Tony Prince

Taliana Martinez

Cletus Ewing

Bernie Crane

Yusuf Amir

Phil Bell

Simeon Yetarian

Patrick McReary

66

31

29

29

29

29

29

29

29

29

28

28

25

Will it be possible to vibe code a Grand Theft Auto-scope+style game "in a few minutes" before GTA 6 releases?

Jan 13, 12:44 AMNov 19, 11:59 PM

2.35%chance

6190

OptionVotes

YES

NO

210

96

Will Paradox release a grand strategy game that covers the year 632 as part of its unmodded timeline by the end of 2029?

Feb 15, 8:13 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

39%chance

325

OptionVotes

YES

NO

125

80

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