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Grant News

Will >5% of an FTX grant be clawed back, from >2 individual workers, by end of 2026?

Nov 14, 3:10 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

53.36%chance

15987847

OptionVotes

NO

YES

4330

2508

Will an AI be granted legal personhood in any country by end of 2030?

May 19, 6:47 PMDec 31, 6:29 PM

21.44%chance

21838538

OptionVotes

YES

NO

6541

3993

Will GiveWell recommend a grant to support unconditional cash transfers before 2027?

Dec 18, 3:25 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

35.44%chance

3815185

OptionVotes

YES

NO

6424

3116

Will GiveWell recommend a grant to support breastfeeding promotion before 2027?

Aug 23, 6:24 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

24.15%chance

739152

OptionVotes

YES

NO

8143

3540

Will projects which recently received grants via FTX Foundation, Inc. (i.e., the non-profit entity associated with the Future Fund) receive a demand to give the money back (e.g., to be distributed among FTX bankruptcy creditors)?

Nov 14, 3:03 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

63.61%chance

745724

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2141

900

Will any country grant legal rights to any new "nonhuman" entities (AI, robots, aliens...) before end of year 2040?

Mar 30, 1:20 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

54%chance

592227

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1395

1058

If human brain emulations are created, will the 10 highest GDP nations all have granted them human rights after a year?

May 15, 7:09 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

22.68%chance

321823

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1056

962

EU or UK citizen granted US asylum for anti-immigration views by end of 2028?

Oct 16, 4:09 PMJan 1, 4:58 PM

38.26%chance

71542

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1270

787

Will I get an emergent ventures grant?

Oct 31, 7:52 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

31.06%chance

161009

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1071

955

Will the U.S. Supreme Court grant certiorari to hear the White House Ballroom case by the end of their 2026-2027 term?

Mar 31, 9:12 PMJun 30, 11:59 PM

39.95%chance

12848

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1226

816

Will Kevin Buzzard successfully fulfill his grant specs of formalizing Fermat's Last Theorem in Lean within 5 years?

Nov 2, 12:01 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

70.07%chance

8540

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1530

654

Will Brazil grant marketing approval to polylaminin before 2028?

Sep 11, 2:51 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

39.35%chance

5365

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1241

805

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