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Prediction markets for Grant

Will >5% of an FTX grant be clawed back, from >2 individual workers, by end of 2026?

Nov 14, 3:10 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

54.85%chance

15687758

OptionVotes

NO

YES

4435

2419

Will an AI be granted legal personhood in any country by end of 2030?

May 19, 6:47 PMDec 31, 6:29 PM

21.2%chance

21738374

OptionVotes

YES

NO

6605

3975

Will SCOTUS rule that 14A doesn't grant citizenship to US-born children of undocumented immigrant parents by 2030?

Jan 28, 11:40 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

20.9%chance

2116066

OptionVotes

YES

NO

17426

6658

Will GiveWell recommend a grant to support unconditional cash transfers before 2027?

Dec 18, 3:25 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

36%chance

3415050

OptionVotes

YES

NO

6351

3156

Which country will grant Sheikh Hasina extended asylum by the end of 2026?

Aug 7, 5:28 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

189853

OptionProbability

India

UK

Other

China

Malaysia

Germany

Pakistan

Russia

France

47

20

13

6

4

3

3

2

2

Will GiveWell recommend a grant to support breastfeeding promotion before 2027?

Aug 23, 6:24 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

24.01%chance

739114

OptionVotes

YES

NO

8181

3528

Will projects which recently received grants via FTX Foundation, Inc. (i.e., the non-profit entity associated with the Future Fund) receive a demand to give the money back (e.g., to be distributed among FTX bankruptcy creditors)?

Nov 14, 3:03 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

63.61%chance

745724

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2141

900

Will any country grant legal rights to any new "nonhuman" entities (AI, robots, aliens...) before end of year 2040?

Mar 30, 1:20 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

52.84%chance

572102

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1365

1085

If human brain emulations are created, will the 10 highest GDP nations all have granted them human rights after a year?

May 15, 7:09 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

21.67%chance

321775

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1105

949

EU or UK citizen granted US asylum for anti-immigration views by end of 2028?

Oct 16, 4:09 PMJan 1, 4:58 PM

38.26%chance

71542

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1270

787

Will Brazil grant marketing approval to polylaminin before 2028?

Sep 11, 2:51 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

39.35%chance

5365

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1241

805

Will Kevin Buzzard successfully fulfill his grant specs of formalizing Fermat's Last Theorem in Lean within 5 years?

Nov 2, 12:01 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

63.89%chance

8340

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1330

752

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