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Prediction markets for Green United

Will wokeness peak in the United States in the 2020s?

Mar 12, 12:07 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

93.96%chance

314119

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3865

487

Will the next president of France be from Parti Socialiste?

Mar 23, 11:51 AMApr 24, 11:59 PM

6.54%chance

183382

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2924

61

UK Labour builds how many homes by July 4, 2029?

May 17, 11:09 PMJul 3, 11:59 PM

82329

OptionProbability

1,000,000 - 1,249,999

750,000 - 999,999

1,250,000 - 1,499,999

Below 750,000

1,500,000 - 1,749,999

1,750,000 - 1,999,999

2,000,000 - 2,250,000

Above 2,250,000

28

23

16

15

6

4

4

4

Who will be the next permanent leader of Reform UK (after Nigel Farage)?

Mar 11, 7:38 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

151650

OptionProbability

Other

Robert Jenrick

Suella Braverman

Richard Tice

Party ceases to exist

Danny Kruger

Lee Anderson

Zia Yusuf

James McMurdock

Rupert Lowe

27

21

17

7

6

6

5

5

3

2

Will Keir Starmer be reelected PM in 2029?

Mar 17, 5:31 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

3%chance

11923

OptionVotes

YES

NO

569

18

Andy Burnham to announce wealth tax before December 2026

Jul 23, 7:08 AMNov 30, 11:59 PM

3.93%chance

24718

OptionVotes

YES

NO

495

20

Will Trump be impeached before February 2027

Sep 29, 10:23 AMJan 31, 11:59 PM

10.38%chance

17673

OptionVotes

YES

NO

294

34

Highest vote share next UK general election

Mar 16, 7:34 AMAug 15, 6:32 AM

9505

OptionProbability

Labour

Reform

Conservative

Green

Liberal Democrats

Other

45

20

20

7

4

4

Will Rick Wang qualify for USNCO nationals 2027?

May 24, 7:09 PMApr 30, 11:59 PM

11.03%chance

6319

OptionVotes

YES

NO

284

35

Will any OpenAI models be restricted to US in 2026?

Jun 13, 1:34 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

31.91%chance

13238

OptionVotes

YES

NO

146

68

Will any politician be elected on an AI gain-of-function moratorium platform?

Apr 9, 9:50 PMApr 9, 10:59 PM

39.34%chance

540

OptionVotes

YES

NO

98

83

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