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Prediction markets for Greenhouse

Will global greenhouse gas emissions in 2026 be lower than global greenhouse gas emissions in 2025?

Jun 2, 4:04 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

42.66%chance

6021073

OptionVotes

YES

NO

13006

6885

Will the scientific community accept aspects of quantum consciousness by 2030? 🧠🔬⚛️🌀

Feb 28, 8:20 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

11.26%chance

434402

OptionVotes

NO

YES

944

929

Will Bitcoin be carbon-neutral by 2030?

Jul 5, 7:56 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

13.93%chance

223199

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2485

402

Will the U.S. attempt a large scale Solar Radiation Modification geoengineering project before 2030?

Jul 28, 1:47 PMDec 22, 4:59 AM

22.56%chance

19967

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1098

957

Will a new form of clean energy surpass solar in efficiency by 2030?

Jan 10, 11:20 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

15.13%chance

10569

OptionVotes

YES

NO

372

126

Will European Union greenhouse gaz emissions reach less than 5tCO2 eq per capita by 2035?

Apr 15, 1:08 AMJun 1, 9:59 PM

59%chance

3116

OptionVotes

NO

YES

153

127

The world will reach a global agreement to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 50% by 2050

Jul 21, 10:33 PMNov 30, 5:00 AM

41.54%chance

537

OptionVotes

YES

NO

162

140

Who will be the next Editor in Chief of The New Yorker?

May 3, 10:37 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

115

OptionProbability

Other

Radhika Jones

Emily Greenhouse

Patrick Radden Keefe

Daniel Zalewski

Nick Thompson

Ezra Klein

21

13

13

13

13

13

11

Will Saudi Aramco Emissions end at?

Mar 8, 9:04 PMMar 8, 10:59 PM

00

OptionProbability

Below 90

90 - 99

100 - 109

110 - 119

120 - 130

Above 130

17

17

17

17

17

17

Will Chevron Emissions end at?

Mar 8, 9:02 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

00

OptionProbability

Below 58

58 - 59.9

60 - 61.9

62 - 63.9

64 - 65.9

66+

17

17

17

17

17

17

Will Apple Emissions end at?

Mar 8, 9:12 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

00

OptionProbability

Below 0.6

0.06 - 0.07

0.07 - 0.08

0.08 - 0.09

0.09 - 0.10

Above 0.10

17

17

17

17

17

17

Will Ford Emissions end at?

Mar 8, 9:14 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

00

OptionProbability

Below 3.2

3.2 - 3.4

3.4 - 3.6

3.6 - 3.8

3.8 - 4.0

Above 4.0

17

17

17

17

17

17

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