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Prediction markets for Greenhouse

Will global greenhouse gas emissions in 2026 be lower than global greenhouse gas emissions in 2025?

Jun 2, 4:04 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

40.98%chance

5420240

OptionVotes

YES

NO

13385

6612

Will the scientific community accept aspects of quantum consciousness by 2030? 🧠🔬⚛️🌀

Feb 28, 8:20 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

11.26%chance

434402

OptionVotes

NO

YES

944

929

Will Bitcoin be carbon-neutral by 2030?

Jul 5, 7:56 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

13.93%chance

223199

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2485

402

Will the U.S. attempt a large scale Solar Radiation Modification geoengineering project before 2030?

Jul 28, 1:47 PMDec 22, 4:59 AM

22.56%chance

19967

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1098

957

Will European Union greenhouse gaz emissions reach less than 5tCO2 eq per capita by 2035?

Apr 15, 1:08 AMJun 1, 9:59 PM

59%chance

3116

OptionVotes

NO

YES

153

127

Will global carbon emissions from all sources peak before 2030?

Mar 23, 11:47 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

71%chance

461

OptionVotes

NO

YES

156

64

The world will reach a global agreement to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 50% by 2050

Jul 21, 10:33 PMNov 30, 5:00 AM

41.54%chance

537

OptionVotes

YES

NO

162

140

Who will be the next Editor in Chief of The New Yorker?

May 3, 10:37 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

115

OptionProbability

Other

Radhika Jones

Emily Greenhouse

Patrick Radden Keefe

Daniel Zalewski

Nick Thompson

Ezra Klein

21

13

13

13

13

13

11

Will Ford Emissions end at?

Mar 8, 9:14 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

00

OptionProbability

Below 3.2

3.2 - 3.4

3.4 - 3.6

3.6 - 3.8

3.8 - 4.0

Above 4.0

17

17

17

17

17

17

Will Saudi Aramco Emissions end at?

Mar 8, 9:04 PMMar 8, 10:59 PM

00

OptionProbability

Below 90

90 - 99

100 - 109

110 - 119

120 - 130

Above 130

17

17

17

17

17

17

Will Chevron Emissions end at?

Mar 8, 9:02 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

00

OptionProbability

Below 58

58 - 59.9

60 - 61.9

62 - 63.9

64 - 65.9

66+

17

17

17

17

17

17

Will Apple Emissions end at?

Mar 8, 9:12 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

00

OptionProbability

Below 0.6

0.06 - 0.07

0.07 - 0.08

0.08 - 0.09

0.09 - 0.10

Above 0.10

17

17

17

17

17

17

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