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Prediction markets for GRIDS

Will the Texas grid (ERCOT) enter emergency mode in early 2026?

Jan 22, 11:09 PMMar 31, 11:59 PM

2.37%chance

154593

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3705

88

Will any fossil fuel power station be capable of supplying the UK grid by the end of 2030?

Jul 21, 10:32 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

90.39%chance

72100

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3067

326

Will Nuclear Fusion supply power to an electric grid before 2035?

Mar 21, 3:12 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

38.66%chance

261612

OptionVotes

NO

YES

881

131

Will the UK’s National Grid be carbon neutral by 2030?

Aug 21, 9:50 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

14.03%chance

271504

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1275

920

Will the UK’s National Grid be carbon neutral by 2035?

Aug 22, 12:06 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

24.5%chance

151112

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1004

936

In what year will Nuclear Fusion supply power to an electric grid?

Mar 25, 1:19 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

5532

OptionProbability

2030-2034

2035-2039

2040-2044

2045-2049

2050-2054

2055-2059

2060-2064

2065-2070

21

17

13

11

11

9

9

9

Will at least 20% of the vehicles in either the U.S.A., China or the EU use Vehicle-to-Grid (V2G) technology by 2030?

Feb 8, 5:15 PMJan 1, 3:59 PM

21.32%chance

11297

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1046

970

Will commercial fusion plants deliver grid electricity from seawater deuterium by EOY 2035?

Feb 22, 9:53 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

23.28%chance

8219

OptionVotes

YES

NO

182

55

Will Nuclear Fusion supply power to an electric grid before 2040?

Mar 21, 3:10 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

68.1%chance

669

OptionVotes

NO

YES

179

96

Will 10% of US electric vehicles have Vehicle-to-Grid connectivity on 2032-02-27?

Feb 27, 10:59 AMFeb 27, 11:59 PM

42.3%chance

330

OptionVotes

YES

NO

114

105

Will Nuclear Fusion supply power to an electric grid before 2045?

Mar 21, 3:13 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

54.64%chance

422

OptionVotes

NO

YES

211

190

Will "If you're not sure how to sort a list or grid..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

May 28, 6:27 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

13.86%chance

110

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1010

998

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