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Prediction markets for GRIDS

Will any fossil fuel power station be capable of supplying the UK grid by the end of 2030?

Jul 21, 10:32 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

90.39%chance

72100

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3067

326

Will Nuclear Fusion supply power to an electric grid before 2035?

Mar 21, 3:12 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

43.44%chance

271632

OptionVotes

NO

YES

896

109

Will the UK’s National Grid be carbon neutral by 2030?

Aug 21, 9:50 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

14.03%chance

271504

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1275

920

Will the UK’s National Grid be carbon neutral by 2035?

Aug 22, 12:06 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

24.5%chance

151112

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1004

936

Which country will produce the first >1GW nuclear fusion power plant to return energy back to the grid?

Dec 20, 9:25 PMDec 27, 9:25 PM

131086

OptionProbability

UK

USA

Other

China

France

Germany

India

A country not mentioned in the answers

Japan

A collaboration of multiple countries

51

28

16

2

1

1

1

1

1

0

Which country will be the first to add commercially viable nuclear fusion energy to their power grid?

Mar 17, 9:13 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

22621

OptionProbability

USA

China

UK

Other

Finland

France

South Korea

Japan

India

38

19

15

14

5

3

3

1

1

Will at least 20% of the vehicles in either the U.S.A., China or the EU use Vehicle-to-Grid (V2G) technology by 2030?

Feb 8, 5:15 PMJan 1, 3:59 PM

21.32%chance

11297

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1046

970

Will Nuclear Fusion supply power to an electric grid before 2040?

Mar 21, 3:10 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

68.1%chance

669

OptionVotes

NO

YES

179

96

Will flow batteries be the most popular method of grid-scale energy storage before 2030?

Aug 31, 3:06 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

20.75%chance

460

OptionVotes

YES

NO

150

62

Will 10% of US electric vehicles have Vehicle-to-Grid connectivity on 2032-02-27?

Feb 27, 10:59 AMFeb 27, 11:59 PM

42.3%chance

330

OptionVotes

YES

NO

114

105

Will Nuclear Fusion supply power to an electric grid before 2045?

Mar 21, 3:13 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

54.64%chance

422

OptionVotes

NO

YES

211

190

Will "If you're not sure how to sort a list or grid..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

May 28, 6:27 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

13.86%chance

110

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1010

998

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