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Prediction markets for GRIDS

Will any fossil fuel power station be capable of supplying the UK grid by the end of 2030?

Jul 21, 10:32 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

90.39%chance

72100

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3067

326

Will "'False Flag' on Power Grid Result in Holocaust of Non-Compliant Humans"?

Aug 8, 6:56 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

2.61%chance

141837

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2132

890

Will Nuclear Fusion supply power to an electric grid before 2035?

Mar 21, 3:12 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

38.66%chance

261612

OptionVotes

NO

YES

881

131

Will the UK’s National Grid be carbon neutral by 2030?

Aug 21, 9:50 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

13.7%chance

261480

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1304

916

Will the UK’s National Grid be carbon neutral by 2035?

Aug 22, 12:06 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

24.5%chance

151112

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1004

936

Will the US experience a power grid failure before 2026?

Jul 6, 9:44 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

38.17%chance

13931

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1273

786

Which country will be the first to add commercially viable nuclear fusion energy to their power grid?

Mar 17, 9:13 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

19411

OptionProbability

USA

Other

China

Finland

France

South Korea

UK

Japan

India

36

21

15

10

5

5

4

2

2

When will Australia no longer burn fossil fuels for grid electricity?

Mar 12, 10:48 AMJan 1, 1:59 PM

12405

OptionProbability

2040-2049

2050 or later (including never)

2035-2039

2030-2034

Before 2030

30

24

21

20

5

Will at least 20% of the vehicles in either the U.S.A., China or the EU use Vehicle-to-Grid (V2G) technology by 2030?

Feb 8, 5:15 PMJan 1, 3:59 PM

21.32%chance

11297

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1046

970

Will 10% of US electric vehicles have Vehicle-to-Grid connectivity on 2032-02-27?

Feb 27, 10:59 AMFeb 27, 11:59 PM

42.3%chance

330

OptionVotes

YES

NO

114

105

Will Nuclear Fusion supply power to an electric grid before 2045?

Mar 21, 3:13 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

54.64%chance

422

OptionVotes

NO

YES

211

190

Will "If you're not sure how to sort a list or grid..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

May 28, 6:27 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

13.86%chance

110

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1010

998

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