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Prediction markets for GRIDS

Will the Texas grid (ERCOT) enter emergency mode in early 2026?

Jan 22, 11:09 PMMay 31, 11:59 PM

2.48%chance

164595

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3624

90

Will any fossil fuel power station be capable of supplying the UK grid by the end of 2030?

Jul 21, 10:32 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

90.39%chance

72100

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3067

326

Will "'False Flag' on Power Grid Result in Holocaust of Non-Compliant Humans"?

Aug 8, 6:56 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

2.61%chance

141837

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2132

890

Will Nuclear Fusion supply power to an electric grid before 2035?

Mar 21, 3:12 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

38.66%chance

261612

OptionVotes

NO

YES

881

131

Will the UK’s National Grid be carbon neutral by 2030?

Aug 21, 9:50 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

14.03%chance

271504

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1275

920

Will the UK’s National Grid be carbon neutral by 2035?

Aug 22, 12:06 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

24.5%chance

151112

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1004

936

Which country will produce the first >1GW nuclear fusion power plant to return energy back to the grid?

Dec 20, 9:25 PMDec 27, 9:25 PM

131086

OptionProbability

UK

USA

Other

China

France

Germany

India

A country not mentioned in the answers

Japan

A collaboration of multiple countries

51

28

16

2

1

1

1

1

1

0

When will Australia no longer burn fossil fuels for grid electricity?

Mar 12, 10:48 AMJan 1, 1:59 PM

13415

OptionProbability

2040-2049

2050 or later (including never)

2030-2034

2035-2039

Before 2030

37

22

18

18

4

Will at least 20% of the vehicles in either the U.S.A., China or the EU use Vehicle-to-Grid (V2G) technology by 2030?

Feb 8, 5:15 PMJan 1, 3:59 PM

21.32%chance

11297

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1046

970

Will commercial fusion plants deliver grid electricity from seawater deuterium by EOY 2035?

Feb 22, 9:53 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

25%chance

8229

OptionVotes

YES

NO

173

58

Will Nuclear Fusion supply power to an electric grid before 2040?

Mar 21, 3:10 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

68.1%chance

669

OptionVotes

NO

YES

179

96

Will "If you're not sure how to sort a list or grid..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

May 28, 6:27 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

13.86%chance

110

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1010

998

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