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Prediction markets for GRIDS

Will any fossil fuel power station be capable of supplying the UK grid by the end of 2030?

Jul 21, 10:32 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

90.39%chance

72100

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3067

326

Will the US experience a power grid failure before 2026?

Jul 6, 9:44 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

19.95%chance

152011

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2003

499

Will Nuclear Fusion supply power to an electric grid before 2035?

Mar 21, 3:12 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

38.66%chance

261612

OptionVotes

NO

YES

881

131

Will the UK’s National Grid be carbon neutral by 2030?

Aug 21, 9:50 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

13.7%chance

261480

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1304

916

Will the UK’s National Grid be carbon neutral by 2035?

Aug 22, 12:06 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

24.5%chance

151112

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1004

936

Will at least 20% of the vehicles in either the U.S.A., China or the EU use Vehicle-to-Grid (V2G) technology by 2030?

Feb 8, 5:15 PMJan 1, 3:59 PM

21.32%chance

11297

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1046

970

Will Nuclear Fusion supply power to an electric grid before 2040?

Mar 21, 3:10 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

68.1%chance

669

OptionVotes

NO

YES

179

96

Will Nuclear Fusion supply power to an electric grid before 2050?

Mar 21, 3:15 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

71.48%chance

562

OptionVotes

NO

YES

197

97

Will flow batteries be the most popular method of grid-scale energy storage before 2030?

Aug 31, 3:06 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

20.75%chance

460

OptionVotes

YES

NO

150

62

Will 10% of US electric vehicles have Vehicle-to-Grid connectivity on 2032-02-27?

Feb 27, 10:59 AMFeb 27, 11:59 PM

42.3%chance

330

OptionVotes

YES

NO

114

105

Will Nuclear Fusion supply power to an electric grid before 2045?

Mar 21, 3:13 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

54.64%chance

422

OptionVotes

NO

YES

211

190

Will "If you're not sure how to sort a list or grid..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

May 28, 6:27 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

13.86%chance

110

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1010

998

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