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Prediction markets for Grok AI

Humanity's Last Exam score in 2025?

Feb 28, 10:12 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

7759327

Which AI tech companies will be acquired for more than $1B in 2025? 💰

Jan 8, 7:47 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

2744804

OptionProbability

Groq

Stability AI

Mistral AI

ElevenLabs (audio)

Runway AI

Figure AI

Cohere

Grammarly

Perplexity

Devin (Cognition)

Pinecone (database)

Magic (coding)

Midjourney

Nous Research (open source, decentralized AI)

Hugging Face

DataBricks

Suno (music)

Anthropic

xAI

SSI (Ilya Sutskever)

OpenAI

32

32

30

27

26

25

25

25

24

24

24

23

18

16

15

13

11

5

5

5

3

Will X/Elon Musk achieve AGI by next year?

May 26, 12:26 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

3.7%chance

5821814

OptionVotes

YES

NO

5265

708

Another MechaHitler in one month?

Jul 10, 12:44 PMOct 10, 12:39 PM

18.18%chance

17217779

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2122

471

Will Elon Musk's AI Company (xAI) exceed OpenAI in valuation anytime before 2035?

Mar 2, 8:16 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

33%chance

467941

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1122

366

Grok's male AI companion more popular than its female companion?

Jul 17, 10:41 PMDec 31, 11:34 PM

21.74%chance

887862

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1897

527

Will an AI model use more than 1e28 FLOPS in training before 2026?

Apr 4, 12:33 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

7.87%chance

84943

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3421

292

will this tweet hold up: I predict that chess will be essentially fully solved (like checkers) within 10 years.

May 13, 4:45 PMMay 14, 6:59 AM

10.75%chance

251444

OptionVotes

NO

YES

972

782

xAI builds truth-seeking AI before 2027?

May 7, 12:46 PMDec 30, 11:59 PM

28.41%chance

121096

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1587

630

Grok 5's 50% time horizon, per METR

Aug 8, 11:05 PMFeb 1, 11:59 PM

6885

OptionProbability

3h - 3.5h

2.5h - 3h

2h - 2.5h

1.5h - 2h

3.5h - 4h

<1.5h

4h - 5h

5h - 6h

6h - 7h

7h - 8h

8h - 9h

9h - 10h

10h - 11h

11h - 12h

>=12h

27

22

15

7

6

4

4

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

air traffic control integrated with grok by end of Trump admin?

Feb 5, 7:27 PMJan 23, 4:59 AM

3.41%chance

12731

OptionVotes

YES

NO

532

19

Will Time's 2025 Person of the Year be one person?

Feb 10, 4:53 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

51%chance

18382

OptionVotes

NO

YES

102

98

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