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Prediction markets for Grok AI

AI bypass coding entirely by EOY 2026?

Feb 15, 10:54 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

1.2%chance

2121037

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4024

929

Will Elon Musk's AI Company (xAI) exceed OpenAI in valuation anytime before 2035?

Mar 2, 8:16 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

29.8%chance

7115986

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1099

416

AI bypass coding entirely by EOY 2027?

Feb 12, 2:43 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

5.47%chance

5211082

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4157

241

Will Grok make a "really good movie" in 2027?

Oct 10, 2:58 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

9.8%chance

365077

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3049

331

Will xAI release Grok 5 before May 1st 2026?

Feb 12, 1:41 AMApr 30, 11:59 PM

18.79%chance

274942

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2107

312

Will xAI replace Anthropic's DoW deal?

Feb 26, 11:05 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

20%chance

243539

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2000

500

xAI builds truth-seeking AI before 2027?

May 7, 12:46 PMDec 30, 11:59 PM

34.55%chance

131586

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1376

727

will this tweet hold up: I predict that chess will be essentially fully solved (like checkers) within 10 years.

May 13, 4:45 PMMay 14, 6:59 AM

8.62%chance

251465

OptionVotes

YES

NO

977

951

air traffic control integrated with grok by end of Trump admin?

Feb 5, 7:27 PMJan 23, 4:59 AM

3.41%chance

12731

OptionVotes

YES

NO

532

19

Will Elon Musk tweet that a Grok Sucessor has achieved 'AGI-level performance' or 'AGI has been reached' in 2026?

Jan 30, 4:49 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

31.98%chance

9426

OptionVotes

YES

NO

877

409

Will 'From Keynes to the Machine Age' receive substantive critical engagement from qualified experts by 2026?

Oct 11, 4:16 PMJul 1, 10:59 PM

39.02%chance

3250

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1250

800

Prediction markets advocated as system architecture in 2026?

Jan 18, 2:56 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

12.89%chance

5160

OptionVotes

YES

NO

260

38

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