Gröner Group News

Predictle / any forecasting game

Charity lottery

User calibration

Better Explore page / Feed

Subscription plan

Interest on all positions

Merch store

Improved liquidity handling

Market Creator can approve/deny/vet user submitted answers to their markets

Early resolve NO for sum-to-1 multi-choice options

Negative risk conversion

interesting comment notifications

Space the "X" and "Add" buttons farther apart on M.C./Set markets (or change the UI for this altogether)

UI/UX changes that favor limit orders

First class N/A resolution

finer resolution betting near 0%/100%

Market comment section search/filter

Re-implement "Unlinked Multiple Choice" as "A bunch of full binary markets that happen to be displayed on the same page"

Groups / communities

An update to the loans / margin / capitalization system that Evan Actually Likes

Clans

Any A/B tested UI change

Non third-party sign in

Private manifold instances

Poker

Paid DMs

Lee Harvey Oswald (acting alone)

CIA

Other US government agency or official

Cuban exiles (anti-Castro)

Mafia

Other

Cuban government

KGB / Soviets

LBJ

US military

FBI

Other US leftwing group

Other US rightwing group

US company

Foreign company

Mossad / Israeli government

Other foreign government

Humanity coordinates to prevent the creation of potentially-unsafe AIs.

There was an alignment breakthrough allowing humanity to successfully build an aligned AI.

One person (or a small group) takes over the world and acts as a benevolent dictator.

Multiple competing AIs form a stable equilibrium keeping each other in check.

At a sufficient level of intelligence, goals converge towards not wanting to harm other creatures/intelligences.

High intelligence isn't enough to take over the world on its own, so the AI needs to work with humanity in order to effectively pursue its own goals.

There's a fundamental limit to intelligence that isn't much higher than human level.

Gauss

Archimedes

Euler

@121

Other

Von Neumann

Alexander Grothendieck

Newton

Kurt Gödel

David Hilbert

Augustin-Louis Cauchy

Pythagoras

Euclid (of Geometry)

Galois (died at 20 fighting for a girl he loved)

Erdos (on amphetamines)

Alonzo Chuch (lambda calculus)

Matt Damon (of Good Will Hunting)

Ramanujan

Poincare

Finkelstein (of the levi finkelstein conjecture)

Mandelbrot (The B in Benoit B Mandelbrot is Benoit B Mandelbrot)

Trick question; there are no mathematicians.

Idk, your mom seemed pretty good at multiplying last night

sixtynine, you filthy casuals

David A. Cox (Cox-Zucker machine)

The solver of the Riemann Hypothesis

Ludwig Wittgenstein

John Conway (group theory, among others)

the unknown ancient egyptian who invented zero

Descartes

Leibniz

Bourbaki

Laplace

@Mira

Georg Cantor

Frank Ramsey

Fermat

Emmy Noether

Ada Lovelace

.

p

Terry Tao

DottedCalculator

GPT8

Riemann

Claude Shannon

God

Alan Turing

Grigori Perelman

Olga Ladyzhenskaya

Weyl, Weyl

John Gabriel

“Manifold pro” or similar status w perks

Profile hats

Profile pic borders

Profile Hovercard borders

Leverage (loan) rate increases

Bonus streak forgiveness / freezes

Cosmetic badges

Stonks arrow (over pfp)

Cat ears

Some kind of Whale design on pfp, or on hovercard, gated behind 1m all-time volume

Wizard hat

Coolfold's Jester hat

Top hat

Consumable market decorations

Additional site themes

trader bonus multiplier

Monocle

Fire-themed hovercard (requires Streak >100days to buy)

Halo

Devil horns

Profile page layout customization

A unique hat that can only be owned by one person but can be stolen

Spoiler mode (hide current probabilities)

Crystal ball icon on pfp

Bull/Bear horns/ears

MtG mana color symbols

Create a clan / community / group

Custom league cohort packs for inviting friends to compete

Extra predictle sets

Access to detailed Predictle stats (eg of past games, or of other players' performance)

Consumable item that lets you highlight a comment

Boost discounts (limited purchase, e.g. 2/ mo)

Discord perks

YES

Sexism and racism, among other forms of prejudice, are responsible for worse health outcomes, and it’s not overly dramatic for people to treat those issues as public health/safety concerns.

Prediction markets are good

Tenet (Christopher Nolan film) is underrated

[*] ...and things will improve in the future

The way quantum mechanics is explained to the lay public is very misleading.

The Fermi paradox isn't a paradox, and the solution is obviously just that intelligent life is rare.

Authoritarian populism is bad actually

We should be doing much more to pursue human genetic engineering to prevent diseases and aging.

Scientific racism is bad, actually. (also it's not scientific)

Prolonged school closures because of COVID were socially devastating.

Nuclear power is by far the best solution to climate change. [N]

Most organized religion are false

The Many Worlds Interpretation of quantum mechanics

Humans have a responsibility to figure out what if anything we can do about wildlife suffering.

Pineapple pizza tastes good

Physician-assisted suicide should be legal in most countries

First-past-the-post electoral systems are not merely flawed but outright less democratic than proportional or preferential alternatives

Liberal-democracy is good actually

Peeing in the shower is good and everyone should do it

It would actually be a good thing if automation eliminated all jobs.

We need a bigger welfare state than we have now.

Many amphetamines and psychedelics have tremendous therapeutic value when guided by an established practitioner.

The proliferation of microplastics will be viewed as more harmful to the environment than burning fossil fuels, in the long term

Free will doesn't require the ability to do otherwise.

American agents are in the highest positions in government for more than half the world.

We should give every American food stamps, in a fixed dollar amount, with no means testing or work requirements or disqualification for criminal convictions.

Metaculus will take over Manifold in more serious topics, and Manifold will be known as the "unserious" prediction market site

Given what we know about the social and health effects of being fired, even if abolishing at will employment has efficiency costs it is likely worth it.

Dialetheism (the claim that some propositions are both true and false) is itself both true and false.

Dreams analysis is a legitimate means of gaining personal insight.

Mobile UX will be a key explaining factor in explaining the stories of Manifold and Metaculus.

The overall state of the world is pretty good... [*]

If a developed nation moves from democratic to authoritarian government today, it should be expected to end up poorer, weaker, sicker, and stupider.

California is wildly overrated.

Factory farming is horrific but it is not wrong to eat meat.

The United States doesn't need a strong third party.

Political libertarianism

Racial Colorblindness is the only way to defeat racism

People will look back on using animal products as a moral disgrace on the level of chattel slavery.

There's a reasonable chance of a militant green/communist movement that gains popular support in the coming decade.

[N], and to the extent climate activists are promoting other kinds of solutions, they are actively making the situation worse by diverting attention and resources from nuclear power.

Being a billionaire is morally wrong.

Eating meat is morally wrong in most cases.

You should bet NO on this option

The Windows kernel is better than Linux; it’s just all the bloat piled on top that makes it worse

White people are the least racist of any racial group

Technology is not making our lives easier or more fulfilling.

COVID lockdowns didn’t save many lives; in fact they may have caused net increases in global deaths and life years lost.

Light mode is unironically better than Dark mode for most websites

Some people have genuine psychic capabilities

God is evil

A sandwich is a type of hot dog

Astrology is a legitimate means of gaining personal insight.

Climate change is significantly more concerning than AI development.

China not having real democracy does more good than harm

It's acceptable for our systems of punishment to be retributive in part

Mereological nihilism (composite objects don't exist)

AI will not be as capable as humans this century, and will certainly not give us genuine existential concerns

Reincarnation is a real phenomenon

Dentistry is mostly wasted effort.

Moral Hazard isn’t real, and all the purported instances of it can be chalked up to coincidence or confounding variables

Governments should not support parents for having children that they cannot take care of

Donald Trump would have been a better president than Joe Biden

Mass surveillance (security cameras everywhere) has more positives than negatives

Future generations will say that on balance the world reacted appropriately after learning that fossil fuels cause climate change. That the balance between addressing the problem and slowing economies was just about right.

The next American moon landing will be faked

SBF didn't intentionally commit fraud

Humans don't have free will.

AI art is better than human art

Souls/spirits are real and can appear to the living sometimes

Communism just wasn't implemented well, next time it will work

The first American moon landing was faked

The human race should voluntarily choose to go extinct via nonviolent means (antinatalism).

LK-99 room temp, ambient pressure superconductivity pre-print will replicate before 2025

RFK Jr. gets cabinet position or position in any public health department

Flag desecration prohibition passed

Any vaccines banned for any group of people

J6er pardoned

Sports team invited to the white house

A member of Congress is censured or expelled

Mass Deportations

The democrats take control of the house of representatives

Prohibiting or restricting transgender care for adults

A major insider trading scandal linked to the US executive branch

Trump is impeached

Joe Exotic is released from prison

Drone strike in Mexico by US

350 million people or more die, according to expert estimates

US punitive expedition in Mexico

Starlink satellites damaged by US adversary

Significant Rogue AI Incident

AGI achieved

100k humanoid robots manufactured

China invades Taiwan

It ends with JD Vance becoming president

Coup attempt in the United States

A human walks on the Moon

The Senate eliminates the filibuster

Room temperature superconductor discovered

Supreme Court packing

Largest solar flare since Carrington Event

Nuclear weapon detonation

Elon Musk is arrested for treason

Any part of Greenland becomes de facto US territory (excludes military bases)

US military intervention on Canadian territory

Donald Trump reelected President

22nd amendment repealed or interpreted to only apply to consecutive terms

Eagles three-peat

Tulsi Gabbard is arrested for treason

a big anthropic shadow

A small group made it impossible for anyone else to develop AI.

A humanitarian catastrophe hampered AI progress.

AI never got the capability to cause extinction.

AI became safer as it got more powerful without much human effort outside of some RLHFing.

Cognitive enhancement helped a lot.

Humanity coordinated on having a sufficiently long and strong AI moratorium.

Brain uploading helped a lot.

Jono from 2023 does not think I (the one being polled in 2100) qualify as a person.

A plan to mitigate AI risks succeeded and already had a post about it on the alignmentforum on 2023.

Open source AI created an egalitarian world where no one/few got in a position to (accidently) kill everyone.

Nobody wanted to develop AI anymore.

Palantir

Other

OpenAI

Tesla

Lockheed Martin

Boeing

Facebook

Mistral AI

Shield AI

Deepmind

Inflection

Alibaba Group

EluetherAI

Waymo

Raytheon Technologies

Anthropic

Meta

Completion (Status Quo): Finishes term; no major political victories or failures occur.

Completion + Political Prosecution: Finishes term and a high-profile political opponent is convicted or imprisoned before January 1, 2030.

Completion + Charter Change (Cha-Cha): Finishes term and the Constitution is successfully amended/ratified.

Completion + Popularity Surge: Finishes term and his final net approval rating is above 60%.

Completion + Geopolitical Victory: Finishes term and achieves a formal, diplomatic, or legal victory in the West Philippine Sea.

Completion + Succession Path: Finishes term and a key member of the Marcos-Romualdez bloc is elected to the Vice Presidency or Senate Presidency by June 30, 2028.

Completion + External War/Victory: Finishes term and successfully navigates a short, decisive external conflict, resulting in a clear geopolitical victory by June 2028.

Completion + Internal Stabilization: Finishes term and achieves a definitive peace agreement or complete military defeat of all major internal insurgency groups by June 2028.

Completion + AI Governance Success: Finishes term and the Philippines becomes an internationally recognized leader in AI governance or ethical adoption, significantly attracting foreign investment by June 2028.

Completion + AI Economic Boom: Finishes term and the economic boost from AI integration (as a percentage of GDP growth) demonstrably meets or exceeds the most optimistic projections (e.g., $92 Billion estimate) by the end of his term.

Removal by Impeachment (Corruption): Term ends due to being successfully convicted on grounds of Graft and Corruption.

Removal by Impeachment (Betrayal of Trust): Term ends due to being successfully convicted on grounds of Betrayal of Public Trust.

Removal by People Power / Junta: Term ends due to a successful People Power mobilization or a military coup/junta.

Removal by Supreme Court: Term ends via a Supreme Court ruling (e.g., a successful quo warranto petition) that invalidates his election or eligibility.

Removal by Death, Disability, or Resignation: Term ends due to health reasons or voluntary resignation.

Removal by Secession / Government Collapse: Term is rendered invalid due to the successful secession of a major region (e.g., Mindanao).

Removal by External War/Loss: Term ends early due to a major external conflict (e.g., WPS conflict) that leads to significant political destabilization and his removal.

Removal by Internal War/Chaos: Term ends early due to a major internal civil conflict or renewed, large-scale insurgency.

Removal by AI Disinformation Crisis: Term ends early due to a widespread, uncontained AI-driven disinformation crisis (e.g., deepfake scandals) that completely erodes public trust and leads to institutional failure and early removal.

Removal by AI Job Disruption: Term ends early due to massive, immediate job displacement from rapid AI automation, leading to widespread social unrest, economic collapse, and his removal.

Extension by Con-Ass: 8-Year Term Congress (Con-Ass) amends the Constitution to change the single 6-year term to a single 8-year term.

Extension by Con-Con: Parliamentary Shift Constitutional Convention changes the system to Parliamentary, making the incumbent Prime Minister with a flexible term.

Extension by Federalism Transitional Clause: A new Federal Constitution is passed, with a clause designating the incumbent as the Transitional President for two additional years.

Extension by SC Rules on Term Interruption: The Supreme Court rules that the current term was interrupted by a crisis, legally restarting the 6-year clock.

Extension by Legislative Deferment of Polls: Congress passes a simple law postponing the 2028 election due to logistics or calamity.

Extension by Emergency Declaration: The President declares a severe National Emergency (non-war) and Congress concurs, suspending the election.

Extension by New Statutory Office Creation: Congress creates a powerful new, non-constitutional role (e.g., Chief Development Officer) with a long statutory term for the incumbent.

Extension by Succession Incapacit Legal/political chaos incapacitates all legal successors (VP, etc.), forcing the incumbent to hold over.

Extension by Election Invalidation: A court ruling or technicality voids the 2028 election, forcing the incumbent to remain until a valid re-run.

Extension by Cabinet Appointment: The incumbent resigns, the successor is sworn in, and immediately appoints the former President to a powerful, unelected executive post that maintains command.

USA

Canada