Gröner Group News

Merch store

Predictle / any forecasting game

Charity lottery

User calibration

Improved liquidity handling

Better Explore page / Feed

Subscription plan

Interest on all positions

Any A/B tested UI change

Perps

interesting comment notifications

Space the "X" and "Add" buttons farther apart on M.C./Set markets (or change the UI for this altogether)

Market Creator can approve/deny/vet user submitted answers to their markets

Early resolve NO for sum-to-1 multi-choice options

UI/UX changes that favor limit orders

Negative risk conversion

Split MC buckets in half after creation & trading

Market comment section search/filter

Poker

Re-implement "Unlinked Multiple Choice" as "A bunch of full binary markets that happen to be displayed on the same page"

Dependent Set/M.C. markets that can sum to 200%, 300%, 400%, and so on

An update to the loans / margin / capitalization system that Evan Actually Likes

Groups / communities

finer resolution betting near 0%/100%

First class N/A resolution

Non third-party sign in

Multiple non-Mod users can simultaneously share Market Creator powers of a market

Parlays

Clans

Voluntary jury duty for resolving contentious markets

Paid DMs

Lee Harvey Oswald (acting alone)

CIA

Mafia

Other US government agency or official

Other

Cuban government

Cuban exiles (anti-Castro)

KGB / Soviets

LBJ

US military

FBI

Other US leftwing group

Other US rightwing group

US company

Foreign company

Mossad / Israeli government

Other foreign government

Iran and Israel both sign (or publicly accept) a written cease-fire or peace agreement, and no lethal exchange of fire between their regular forces occurs for the following 30 consecutive days

Autonomous lethal drones (no human on the kill-decision loop) are acknowledged by any state to have been used in combat

A cease-fire or peace deal is violated by Israel

Min Aung Hlaing ceases to serve as either (a) Chairman of the State Administration Council or (b) Commander-in-Chief of the Myanmar Armed Forces

Thailand's Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra resigns

Government official from Mexico attends the 2025 BRICS Summit

Iran - Israel War ends in 2025 (ceasefire last at least 90 days (September 22, 2025) or peace deal is signed)

A new non-majority Muslim (according to CIA Factbook) state becomes a signatory of the Abraham Accords

≥ 25 fatalities in Cambodia-Thailand border clashes

DRC & Rwanda sign USA-brokered peace agreement

≥ 1,500 Palestinians killed near Gaza aid hubs

Cambodia - Thailand Border Clash ends in ceasefire in 2025

Cambodia - Thailand Border Clash ends in ceasefire before October 1, 2025

Cambodia - Thailand Border Clash ceasefire is broken

Cambodia - Thailand Border Clash reignites (fighting resumes)

Indonesia becomes a member of BRICS

World leader of 20m+ population country is assassinated

United States government arrests president Nicolas Maduro of Venezuela

At any point more than 5,000 USA National Guard Troops domestically deployed

Saudi Arabia prices oil exports to China in Yuan (CNY)

India's 2026-2027 Defence Budget exceeds ₹7.5 lakh crore

A new cease-fire between Iran and United States OR Israel is declared post Feb 28, 2026

United States troops enter Iran

Donald Trump and Iran work out a "deal" to cease hostilities (even temporarily)

Benjamin Netanyahu alive as of April 30, 2026

Russia remains a permanent member of UN Security Council

Donald Trump remains President of USA

Xi Jinping remains General Secretary of the Chinese Communist Party

Vladimir Putin remains President of Russia

USA and Iran agree to a new cease fire post April 10, 2026

Claudia Sheinbaum remains President of Mexico

Russian-Ukraine War continues through end of 2026 with no Cease-fire or Peace Agreement

Kim Jong Un remains General Secretary of the Workers' Party of Korea (or equivalent title)

A new ceasefire between Israel and Gaza is announced by Donald Trump

Iran and Israel agree to a Cease Fire

Ukraine - Russia War halted by Ceasefire

Volodymyr Zelenskyy remains President of Ukraine

Confirmed overflight of US Military aircraft over Cuba

A cease-fire or peace deal is violated by Iran

Iran-Israel War continues through end of 2026 with no Cease-fire or Peace Agreement

1+ deaths attributed to a rogue AI

123

A country declares war on Israel

The U.S. suffers ≥50 combat fatalities in a single new overseas operation—defined as a country where no U.S. combat deaths occurred in 2024

An armed non-state group captures and holds the capital city of a UN-recognised state for ≥72 hours

A drone attacks a head of state (hits or lands within 30 meters)

Algeria becomes a member of BRICS

Nigeria becomes a member of BRICS

A cyber-attack officially attributed to a foreign state actor causes ≥US $1 billion in insured losses to a single country

A 5th-generation fighter jet is confirmed to have been destroyed in air/shot down (not including being damaged from an airfield bombing)

Azerbaijan becomes a signatory of the Abraham Accords

Russia sells or scraps it's only aircraft carrier; the Admiral Kuznetsov

North Korea conducts a nuclear weapons test

China declares an air- or maritime-exclusion zone covering any part of Taiwan’s territorial sea or airspace

Hostile military action by United States against Cuba

At least 5,000 uniformed personnel belonging to a UN-Security-Council-authorized security or peace-keeping mission are physically deployed in Haiti

Trump, Putin, & Zelensky meet together in the same room

A peace treaty ending the Ethiopia–Tigray conflict is signed and remains unbroken for 90 days

Saudi Arabia becomes a signatory of the Abraham Accords

Russian armed forces intentionally attack uniformed personnel or sovereign assets of any NATO member state, or vice-versa

North Korea provides missile(s) to Iran

Any EU member invokes Article 42 (7) of the Treaty on European Union in response to an armed attack

Ukraine - Russia War ends with a peace treaty

Kazakhstan becomes a member of BRICS

Iran loses territory

Oil prices reach $150 USD a barrel

Major terrorist attack (50+ killed) occurs in Europe

Non-PSUV candidate inaugurated as next President of Venezuela

A state shoot-down of a spacecraft or satellite in orbit is publicly confirmed

Any signatory of the CTBT tests a nuclear weapon

A nation officially announces AGI has been achieved

At least three sovereign states outside NATO, EU, ANZUS, or the Quad sign a formal mutual-defence treaty deposited with the UN Treaty Series

A vessel larger than 50,000 deadweight tons is damaged or sunk by a naval mine in the Strait of Hormuz

Turkey invokes NATO Article 4 consultations

160 UN Nations simultaneously officially regonize Palestine's statehood.

A head of state from a G20 country is assassinated

Uniformed armed forces in any G20 member state attempt to seize executive power from the constitutional head of government

United Kingdom formally states intention to begin process to reverse "Brexit"

Vladimir Putin is formally charged and tried for war crimes by an international tribunal or court with recognized jurisdiction (e.g., ICC)

USA performs military action (troops/special forces deployed or airstrike/missile strike) in Mexico resulting in confirmed deaths

An armed clash between India and Pakistan results in ≥100 military fatalities in a 7-day period

Japan launches a domestically-built intermediate-range ballistic missile (>3 000 km advertised range) test

Bangladesh becomes a member of BRICS

An armed clash in the Shaksgam Valley between India & China resulting in ≥10 fatalities in a 7-day period

Syria becomes a signatory of the Abraham Accords

The IAEA publicly reports that Iran possesses uranium enriched to ≥90 % U-235

Iran undergoes a regime change

Sudanese Civil War ends

Mexico becomes a member of BRICS

Benjamin Netanyahu is formally charged and tried for war crimes by an international tribunal or court with recognized jurisdiction (e.g., ICC)

Any hostile military forces are deployed on Israeli soil

Any NATO country formally declares war on another country

United Nations Security Council adopts (i.e., passes without veto) a formal resolution that explicitly condemns Israel’s use of lethal force against civilians seeking humanitarian aid in Gaza or demands Israel cease such force

Palestine is granted full United Nations Membership

Iraq becomes a signatory of the Abraham Accords

Azerbaijani troops enter Iran

North Korea - South Korea results in any civilian deaths

Egypt formally declares war on another country

Israel loses territory

Benjamin Netanyahu remains Prime Minister of Israel

Libya becomes a signatory of the Abraham Accords

Major terrorist attack (50+ killed) occurs in United States

Any country leaves NATO

Venezuela becomes a member of BRICS

India's Prime Minister Modi steps down or announces a successor

China formally declares war on another country

Lebanon becomes a signatory of the Abraham Accords

A country announces magnetic-fusion net-positive energy

Major terrorist attack (50+ killed) occurs in Canada

Bashar Al-Assad is formally charged and tried for war crimes by an international tribunal or court with recognized jurisdiction (e.g., ICC)

Successful military coup in Venezuela

The Government of Denmark publicly acknowledges receipt of a formal written offer from Donald J. Trump or his officially empowered representatives to transfer sovereignty over Greenland to the United States

China invades Taiwan

Major terrorist attack (50+ killed) occurs in United Kingdom

Saudi Arabia signs a written, mutual-defence pact with China or Russia

The Arctic Council is formally suspended or dissolved by unanimous vote

Argentina becomes a member of BRICS

United States formally declares war on another country

Any current G-20 member state ceases to be listed as a United Nations Member State

Jordan becomes a signatory of the Abraham Accords

Major News sources consistently identify a conflict as WWIII

USA leaves NATO

Qatar becomes a signatory of the Abraham Accords

China becomes militarily involved in Cambodia - Thailand Border Clash

World Health Organization (WHO) declares a Chikungunya virus pandemic

United States formally declares war on Iran

Burj Khalifa destroyed via hostile action

Iranian troops enter Israel

Donald Trump is formally charged and tried for war crimes by an international tribunal or court with recognized jurisdiction (e.g., ICC)

A country declares war on United States

Ukraine ceases to exist as a sovereign state

Iran becomes a signatory of the Abraham Accords

Israel conducts military operation in Cyprus

United States Military personnel deaths greater than or equal to 15 in Israel borders during 2026

At least one nuclear explosive device is detonated with the intent to harm a state’s armed forces or civilian population

Israel annexes 100% of Gaza

Kim Jong Un is formally charged and tried for war crimes by an international tribunal or court with recognized jurisdiction (e.g., ICC)

Iran ceases to exist as a sovereign nation

Ukraine becomes a formal NATO member

Armenia undergoes a regime change as the result of a military coup

Any United States of America state formally states intent to begin process to secede

Two states engage in a nuclear exchange (both attempt to deliver a nuclear device within the borders of the other)

Alberta begins process of becoming a USA state

Extraterrestrials making contact with earth is widely acknowledged

Whole of Greenland becomes USA territory

Any Canadian territory becomes part of US territory

Any US territory comes under Canadian administration

Israel annexes any portion of Iran

A leader of a country is tried and executed by a UN recognized state.

Israel ceases to exist as a sovereign nation

Humans will extinct

Yahya Sinwar is formally charged and tried for war crimes by an international tribunal or court with recognized jurisdiction (e.g., ICC)

There was an alignment breakthrough allowing humanity to successfully build an aligned AI.

Humanity coordinates to prevent the creation of potentially-unsafe AIs.

High intelligence isn't enough to take over the world on its own, so the AI needs to work with humanity in order to effectively pursue its own goals.

One person (or a small group) takes over the world and acts as a benevolent dictator.

Multiple competing AIs form a stable equilibrium keeping each other in check.

At a sufficient level of intelligence, goals converge towards not wanting to harm other creatures/intelligences.

There's a fundamental limit to intelligence that isn't much higher than human level.

Gauss

Archimedes

Euler

Alexander Grothendieck

@121

Other

Galois (died at 20 fighting for a girl he loved)

Erdos (on amphetamines)

Von Neumann

Ramanujan

The solver of the Riemann Hypothesis

Newton

Kurt Gödel

David Hilbert

Grigori Perelman

Augustin-Louis Cauchy

Pythagoras

Euclid (of Geometry)

Alonzo Chuch (lambda calculus)

Matt Damon (of Good Will Hunting)

Poincare

Finkelstein (of the levi finkelstein conjecture)

Mandelbrot (The B in Benoit B Mandelbrot is Benoit B Mandelbrot)

Trick question; there are no mathematicians.

Idk, your mom seemed pretty good at multiplying last night

sixtynine, you filthy casuals

David A. Cox (Cox-Zucker machine)

Ludwig Wittgenstein

John Conway (group theory, among others)

the unknown ancient egyptian who invented zero

Descartes

Leibniz

Bourbaki

Laplace

@Mira

Georg Cantor

Frank Ramsey

Fermat

Emmy Noether

Ada Lovelace

.

p

Terry Tao

DottedCalculator

GPT8

Riemann

Claude Shannon

God

Alan Turing

Olga Ladyzhenskaya

Weyl, Weyl

John Gabriel

RFK Jr. gets cabinet position or position in any public health department

Flag desecration prohibition passed

Any vaccines banned for any group of people

J6er pardoned

Sports team invited to the white house

A member of Congress is censured or expelled

The democrats take control of the house of representatives

Significant Rogue AI Incident

Blue wave in 2026 midterm elections

Democrats win Iowa governorship

Republicans lose the house majority in midterms

James Talarico wins Texas senate election

Rob Sand wins 2026 Iowa governor election

Katie Hobbs win 2026 Arizona governor election

@DudleyDOODOO creates over 80 options for this market

Prohibiting or restricting transgender care for adults

Democrats win the early voting race game and win the midterms

Democracy survives

Generative AI becomes permanent part our daily lives permanently

Mass Deportations

Trump is impeached

A major insider trading scandal linked to the US executive branch

Democrats win back the white house in 2028

Giorgia Meloni wins reelection prime minister

Left-wing CPAC alternative launches

RFK Jr impeached

Suffer a fall in public

Nicolas Maduro prosecuted and imprisoned for life

Chuck Grassley dies

Peter Hotez goes to prison

Convergence Magazine (Organizing Upgrade) shut down and cease to exist

@dudleyDOODO creates over 50 options that are either illogical, incomprehensible or too vague to resolve

Another project 2025 launched by Heritage Foundation for GOP 2029 presidency

All pseudo-legal sovereign citizen international tribunals causes all prediction markets as concept to defunct and cease to exist

Drone strike in Mexico by US

Nuclear weapon detonation

AGI achieved

US punitive expedition in Mexico

Starlink satellites damaged by US adversary

A second pope is elected

Republicans win the white house in 2028

Deep funding cuts to NIH, NSF, FDA, CDC, HHS, EPA fully implemented and becomes law

Democrats win trifecta in 2026 midterms

100k humanoid robots manufactured

All pseudo-legal sovereign citizen international tribunals causes all AI technologies and generative ai to defunct and cease to exist

Reiner Fuellmich released from prison

350 million people or more die, according to expert estimates

Another covid-like pandemic

NIH, CDC, FDA, HHS, NSF abolished permanently

Bell tower added at the US Capitol

Pauline Hanson becomes Australia prime minister

Reiner Fuellmich's Nuremberg 2.0 occurs and becomes reality

Science and public health infrastructures dies

All COVID-19 vaccines pulled off market entirely

Abolish vaccine funding entirely permanently

Zach Lahn wins Iowa 2026 governor election

Alice Weidel becomes German chancellor

Climate change infrastructures abolished permanently

MAGA and Trump challenge 2026 midterm GOP losses

A human walks on the Moon

Joe Exotic is released from prison

Nuremberg 2.0 over pandemics becomes reality and occurs

Patriots for Europe controls European parliament and wins majority

It ends with JD Vance becoming president

Antifa dissolves

Post-WW2 international orders die and abolished

AfD controls chancellorship and AfD becomes chancellor

Mark Carney wins 2029 Canada election

Vaccine research and projects permanently abolished

NASA abolished

US captures Daniel Ortega and all other leftist leaders worldwide

Europe of Sovereign Nations controls European parliament and wins majority

Measles vaccines abolished and pulled off market

Adam Schiff goes to prison

Chris Whitty goes to prison

European countries all under far-right regime control

Steve Bannon runs for 2028 president

Probabilistic forecasting dies, extinct, defunct, and cease to exist

Fauci and other scientist experts go to prison

Actblue shut down and cease to exist

All prediction markets defunct and cease to exist permanently

World war 3 and global war launch

Metaculus shut down and cease to exist

Room temperature superconductor discovered

Elon Musk is arrested for treason

China invades Taiwan

US military intervention on Canadian territory

Apple, Google, Microsoft, OpenAI, Perplexity defunct and cease to exist

Latin American countries all under far-right regime control

Ilhan Omar deported

Soros family goes to prison

Tulsi Gabbard is arrested for treason

Coup attempt in the United States

All in person comic con events get cancelled throughout 2020s

Republicans leads in early and mail in voting in midterms

Roberto Vannacci becomes Italy prime minister

Hillary Clinton goes to prison

All international NGOs defunct and cease to exist

Lula's 2026 Brazil election victory overturned and tilted to Bolsonaro

Any part of Greenland becomes de facto US territory (excludes military bases)

Republicans win control of the house

All type of vaccines abolished and pulled off market

Fauci goes to prison

Manifold market shut down and cease to exist

US withdraws from United Nations

Viktor Orban returns as prime minister

GOP, Trump, and MAGA controls all election infrastructures away from state governments

Russia invades all European countries

Barack Obama goes to prison

Nigel Farage becomes UK prime minister

Abolish global health funding and infrastructures

Abolish global vaccine funding and vaccine infrastructures permanently

Mass imprisonment of scientists, public health officials, pandemic officials and others worldwide

Far-right seizes all American universities nationwide

Global far-right alliances abolishes and defuncts generative AI and all AI technology

Global far-right alliances abolishes and defuncts all prediction markets

Anti-AI movement abolishes and defuncts all AI technologies and infrastructures

The Senate eliminates the filibuster

Largest solar flare since Carrington Event

Democracy dies

All left-wing pro democracy and pro science organizations shut down

World Health Organization dissolved and abolished

Far-right seizes all American institutions

All US citizens arrested, detained, and targeted by ICE

Nuclear war

Reform UK wins UK 2029 election

World becomes global far-right regime

Russia invades all NATO countries

Bill Gates goes to prison

All media under right-wing control

North Korea bombs and invades South Korea

Elon Musk buys the 2026 midterm elections

US captures Lula and removes him from office

Supreme Court packing

22nd amendment repealed or interpreted to only apply to consecutive terms

Donald Trump reelected President

United States and the world becomes totalitarian dictatorship

All federal and state judges impeached

All Democrats imprisoned

Iran, Russia, North Korea, and China bombs US mainland

Rupert Lowe becomes UK prime minister

Human extinction

US buys Greenland and becomes 52nd state

Democrats permanently locked out of power

Democrats lose the house in 2026 midterm election

All scientists, doctors, pandemic experts, and all other public health officials go to prison

Eagles three-peat

2026 midterm election gets stolen by Trump and GOP and tilted in ruling party's favor

Abolish elections permanently

Russia invades all continents and controls the world globally

All Trump opponents go to prison

Canada becomes 51st state

Russia, China, North Korea, and Iran invades US mainland

Republicans win the early voting race game and win the midterms

Republicans surprisingly win the house in 2026 midterms

Abortion permanently banned nationwide and worldwide

End Russo-Ukranian war in 90 days

Is a man

Is under 30 years old

Has military background

Was acting alone

Is charged with murder before 2026

Is alive on 12/31/2025

Is cited by Trump administration as a reason for deploying more troops to any city by 12/31/2025

Is white and not hispanic

Is used as a pretext to restrict immigration

Has ties to extremist groups

Has ever been diagnosed with a mental health condition

Has the death penalty sought against him by the prosecution

Accepts a plea deal instead of going to trial

Is convicted in relation to these crimes by 1/1/2027

Has been awarded for services to the United States

Was motivated by political ideology

Has been convicted of a felony

Was intoxicated at the time of the shooting

Is a U.S. citizen

Had the firearm used in the crime legally

YES

NO

NO

Palantir

Other

OpenAI

Tesla

Lockheed Martin

Boeing

Facebook

Mistral AI

Shield AI

Deepmind

Inflection

Alibaba Group

EluetherAI

Waymo

Raytheon Technologies

Anthropic

Meta

Completion (Status Quo): Finishes term; no major political victories or failures occur.

Completion + Political Prosecution: Finishes term and a high-profile political opponent is convicted or imprisoned before January 1, 2030.

Completion + Charter Change (Cha-Cha): Finishes term and the Constitution is successfully amended/ratified.

Completion + Popularity Surge: Finishes term and his final net approval rating is above 60%.

Completion + Geopolitical Victory: Finishes term and achieves a formal, diplomatic, or legal victory in the West Philippine Sea.

Completion + Succession Path: Finishes term and a key member of the Marcos-Romualdez bloc is elected to the Vice Presidency or Senate Presidency by June 30, 2028.

Completion + External War/Victory: Finishes term and successfully navigates a short, decisive external conflict, resulting in a clear geopolitical victory by June 2028.

Completion + Internal Stabilization: Finishes term and achieves a definitive peace agreement or complete military defeat of all major internal insurgency groups by June 2028.

Completion + AI Governance Success: Finishes term and the Philippines becomes an internationally recognized leader in AI governance or ethical adoption, significantly attracting foreign investment by June 2028.

Completion + AI Economic Boom: Finishes term and the economic boost from AI integration (as a percentage of GDP growth) demonstrably meets or exceeds the most optimistic projections (e.g., $92 Billion estimate) by the end of his term.

Removal by Impeachment (Corruption): Term ends due to being successfully convicted on grounds of Graft and Corruption.

Removal by Impeachment (Betrayal of Trust): Term ends due to being successfully convicted on grounds of Betrayal of Public Trust.

Removal by People Power / Junta: Term ends due to a successful People Power mobilization or a military coup/junta.

Removal by Supreme Court: Term ends via a Supreme Court ruling (e.g., a successful quo warranto petition) that invalidates his election or eligibility.

Removal by Death, Disability, or Resignation: Term ends due to health reasons or voluntary resignation.

Removal by Secession / Government Collapse: Term is rendered invalid due to the successful secession of a major region (e.g., Mindanao).

Removal by External War/Loss: Term ends early due to a major external conflict (e.g., WPS conflict) that leads to significant political destabilization and his removal.

Removal by Internal War/Chaos: Term ends early due to a major internal civil conflict or renewed, large-scale insurgency.

Removal by AI Disinformation Crisis: Term ends early due to a widespread, uncontained AI-driven disinformation crisis (e.g., deepfake scandals) that completely erodes public trust and leads to institutional failure and early removal.

Removal by AI Job Disruption: Term ends early due to massive, immediate job displacement from rapid AI automation, leading to widespread social unrest, economic collapse, and his removal.

Extension by Con-Ass: 8-Year Term Congress (Con-Ass) amends the Constitution to change the single 6-year term to a single 8-year term.

Extension by Con-Con: Parliamentary Shift Constitutional Convention changes the system to Parliamentary, making the incumbent Prime Minister with a flexible term.

Extension by Federalism Transitional Clause: A new Federal Constitution is passed, with a clause designating the incumbent as the Transitional President for two additional years.

Extension by SC Rules on Term Interruption: The Supreme Court rules that the current term was interrupted by a crisis, legally restarting the 6-year clock.

Extension by Legislative Deferment of Polls: Congress passes a simple law postponing the 2028 election due to logistics or calamity.

Extension by Emergency Declaration: The President declares a severe National Emergency (non-war) and Congress concurs, suspending the election.

Extension by New Statutory Office Creation: Congress creates a powerful new, non-constitutional role (e.g., Chief Development Officer) with a long statutory term for the incumbent.

Extension by Succession Incapacit Legal/political chaos incapacitates all legal successors (VP, etc.), forcing the incumbent to hold over.

Extension by Election Invalidation: A court ruling or technicality voids the 2028 election, forcing the incumbent to remain until a valid re-run.

Extension by Cabinet Appointment: The incumbent resigns, the successor is sworn in, and immediately appoints the former President to a powerful, unelected executive post that maintains command.