Gröner Group News

Merch store

Predictle / any forecasting game

Charity lottery

User calibration

Better Explore page / Feed

Subscription plan

Interest on all positions

Improved liquidity handling

Market Creator can approve/deny/vet user submitted answers to their markets

Negative risk conversion

interesting comment notifications

Perps

Early resolve NO for sum-to-1 multi-choice options

UI/UX changes that favor limit orders

Split MC buckets in half after creation & trading

Market comment section search/filter

finer resolution betting near 0%/100%

First class N/A resolution

Re-implement "Unlinked Multiple Choice" as "A bunch of full binary markets that happen to be displayed on the same page"

Space the "X" and "Add" buttons farther apart on M.C./Set markets (or change the UI for this altogether)

Groups / communities

Multiple non-Mod users can simultaneously share Market Creator powers of a market

An update to the loans / margin / capitalization system that Evan Actually Likes

Non third-party sign in

Any A/B tested UI change

Voluntary jury duty for resolving contentious markets

Clans

Parlays

Poker

Paid DMs

Lee Harvey Oswald (acting alone)

CIA

Other US government agency or official

Mafia

Other

Cuban government

Cuban exiles (anti-Castro)

KGB / Soviets

LBJ

US military

FBI

Other US leftwing group

Other US rightwing group

US company

Foreign company

Mossad / Israeli government

Other foreign government

There was an alignment breakthrough allowing humanity to successfully build an aligned AI.

Humanity coordinates to prevent the creation of potentially-unsafe AIs.

High intelligence isn't enough to take over the world on its own, so the AI needs to work with humanity in order to effectively pursue its own goals.

Multiple competing AIs form a stable equilibrium keeping each other in check.

One person (or a small group) takes over the world and acts as a benevolent dictator.

At a sufficient level of intelligence, goals converge towards not wanting to harm other creatures/intelligences.

There's a fundamental limit to intelligence that isn't much higher than human level.

“Manifold pro” or similar status w perks

Profile hats

Profile pic borders

Profile Hovercard borders

Leverage (loan) rate increases

Bonus streak forgiveness / freezes

Coolfold's Jester hat

Top hat

Halo

Devil horns

Cat ears

Crystal ball icon on pfp

Wizard hat

Fire-themed hovercard (requires Streak >100days to buy)

Stonks arrow (over pfp)

Bull/Bear horns/ears

Monocle

Cosmetic badges

Some kind of Whale design on pfp, or on hovercard, gated behind 1m all-time volume

Additional site themes

Consumable market decorations

A unique hat that can only be owned by one person but can be stolen

Profile page layout customization

trader bonus multiplier

Spoiler mode (hide current probabilities)

Create a clan / community / group

MtG mana color symbols

Consumable item that lets you highlight a comment

Access to detailed Predictle stats (eg of past games, or of other players' performance)

Discord perks

Boost discounts (limited purchase, e.g. 2/ mo)

Custom league cohort packs for inviting friends to compete

Extra predictle sets

Gauss

Archimedes

Euler

@121

Other

Von Neumann

Alexander Grothendieck

Newton

Kurt Gödel

David Hilbert

Augustin-Louis Cauchy

Pythagoras

Euclid (of Geometry)

Galois (died at 20 fighting for a girl he loved)

Erdos (on amphetamines)

Alonzo Chuch (lambda calculus)

Matt Damon (of Good Will Hunting)

Ramanujan

Poincare

Finkelstein (of the levi finkelstein conjecture)

Mandelbrot (The B in Benoit B Mandelbrot is Benoit B Mandelbrot)

Trick question; there are no mathematicians.

Idk, your mom seemed pretty good at multiplying last night

sixtynine, you filthy casuals

David A. Cox (Cox-Zucker machine)

The solver of the Riemann Hypothesis

Ludwig Wittgenstein

John Conway (group theory, among others)

the unknown ancient egyptian who invented zero

Descartes

Leibniz

Bourbaki

Laplace

@Mira

Georg Cantor

Frank Ramsey

Fermat

Emmy Noether

Ada Lovelace

.

p

Terry Tao

DottedCalculator

GPT8

Riemann

Claude Shannon

God

Alan Turing

Grigori Perelman

Olga Ladyzhenskaya

Weyl, Weyl

John Gabriel

NO

YES

The Democrat party has directly asked mainstream media to promote or repress a news story, and they followed (Only counting incidents in or after 2015)

TikTok is controlled by the Chinese government

Someone working for a US intelligence agency was a regular user of Manifold before this option was made

The culture war has been intentionally amplified by the wealthy to distract from class conflict

The US has spies working in the North Korean government

"The Agency" on Manifold was known to the whole Manifold staff team before it started

The idea of aliens is used by the US to distract people from secret military projects

The Republican party has been making the illegal immigrant problem worse during 2020-2024 to blame it on Joe Biden during election season

The Premier League delayed punishing Manchester City for breaking FFP regulations to protect its own self-interests

The Chinese government planned their Wuhan lockdowns to protect their own country from Covid-19 but spread it to other countries

Mattress Firm is a money laundering front

The UK did Nordstream

The earth and/or universe was created by a God, deity, supernatural being, or some other sentient/conscious entity in the beginning

Creationism (second try): The earth and/or universe was INTENTIONALLY created and designed by an INDIVIDUAL god or deity at the VERY BEGINNING of its existence

The US created Covid-19 in a lab in China

The CIA systematically edits Wikipedia articles to present the US in a better light

Putin was threatened by a member of his cabinet to invade Ukraine

John Barnett (Boeing whistleblower) was assassinated

COVID-19 vaccines permanently change one's DNA or genome

Creationism (third try): Genesis 1 prima facie is an accurate description of the earth and/or universe's origins

Vladimir Putin died in 2014 and was secretly replaced by a body double

In the Tucker & Carlson interview, the dubbed voice of Putin in english is not actually saying what Putin is saying, but instead something completely different

The 2024 Donald Trump assassination attempt was a hoax or setup

COVID-19 vaccine is fatal or lethal in the long term

Phantom Time Hypothesis: A substantial portion of the Middle Ages was made up and never happened

There is a firmament, dome, or ceiling above the earth

Viruses/viral particles don't actually exist

A group of giant people known as the Nephilim once inhabited the earth and cut down the colossal trees, leaving stumps that the general public understands as geological formations like Devils Tower in Wyoming and Giant’s Causeway in Ireland

YES

YES

State Administration Council or successor military junta

National Unity Government in exile (Aung San Suu Kyi)

A majority nondemocrtic coalition of ethnic armed groups

Other

A majority democratic coalition of ethnic armed groups

Completion (Status Quo): Finishes term; no major political victories or failures occur.

Completion + Political Prosecution: Finishes term and a high-profile political opponent is convicted or imprisoned before January 1, 2030.

Completion + Charter Change (Cha-Cha): Finishes term and the Constitution is successfully amended/ratified.

Completion + Popularity Surge: Finishes term and his final net approval rating is above 60%.

Completion + Geopolitical Victory: Finishes term and achieves a formal, diplomatic, or legal victory in the West Philippine Sea.

Completion + Succession Path: Finishes term and a key member of the Marcos-Romualdez bloc is elected to the Vice Presidency or Senate Presidency by June 30, 2028.

Completion + External War/Victory: Finishes term and successfully navigates a short, decisive external conflict, resulting in a clear geopolitical victory by June 2028.

Completion + Internal Stabilization: Finishes term and achieves a definitive peace agreement or complete military defeat of all major internal insurgency groups by June 2028.

Completion + AI Governance Success: Finishes term and the Philippines becomes an internationally recognized leader in AI governance or ethical adoption, significantly attracting foreign investment by June 2028.

Completion + AI Economic Boom: Finishes term and the economic boost from AI integration (as a percentage of GDP growth) demonstrably meets or exceeds the most optimistic projections (e.g., $92 Billion estimate) by the end of his term.

Removal by Impeachment (Corruption): Term ends due to being successfully convicted on grounds of Graft and Corruption.

Removal by Impeachment (Betrayal of Trust): Term ends due to being successfully convicted on grounds of Betrayal of Public Trust.

Removal by People Power / Junta: Term ends due to a successful People Power mobilization or a military coup/junta.

Removal by Supreme Court: Term ends via a Supreme Court ruling (e.g., a successful quo warranto petition) that invalidates his election or eligibility.

Removal by Death, Disability, or Resignation: Term ends due to health reasons or voluntary resignation.

Removal by Secession / Government Collapse: Term is rendered invalid due to the successful secession of a major region (e.g., Mindanao).

Removal by External War/Loss: Term ends early due to a major external conflict (e.g., WPS conflict) that leads to significant political destabilization and his removal.

Removal by Internal War/Chaos: Term ends early due to a major internal civil conflict or renewed, large-scale insurgency.

Removal by AI Disinformation Crisis: Term ends early due to a widespread, uncontained AI-driven disinformation crisis (e.g., deepfake scandals) that completely erodes public trust and leads to institutional failure and early removal.

Removal by AI Job Disruption: Term ends early due to massive, immediate job displacement from rapid AI automation, leading to widespread social unrest, economic collapse, and his removal.

Extension by Con-Ass: 8-Year Term Congress (Con-Ass) amends the Constitution to change the single 6-year term to a single 8-year term.

Extension by Con-Con: Parliamentary Shift Constitutional Convention changes the system to Parliamentary, making the incumbent Prime Minister with a flexible term.

Extension by Federalism Transitional Clause: A new Federal Constitution is passed, with a clause designating the incumbent as the Transitional President for two additional years.

Extension by SC Rules on Term Interruption: The Supreme Court rules that the current term was interrupted by a crisis, legally restarting the 6-year clock.

Extension by Legislative Deferment of Polls: Congress passes a simple law postponing the 2028 election due to logistics or calamity.

Extension by Emergency Declaration: The President declares a severe National Emergency (non-war) and Congress concurs, suspending the election.

Extension by New Statutory Office Creation: Congress creates a powerful new, non-constitutional role (e.g., Chief Development Officer) with a long statutory term for the incumbent.

Extension by Succession Incapacit Legal/political chaos incapacitates all legal successors (VP, etc.), forcing the incumbent to hold over.

Extension by Election Invalidation: A court ruling or technicality voids the 2028 election, forcing the incumbent to remain until a valid re-run.

Extension by Cabinet Appointment: The incumbent resigns, the successor is sworn in, and immediately appoints the former President to a powerful, unelected executive post that maintains command.