Ground Forces News

Israel-Iran 2025 war prop bets

Jun 17, 12:22 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

423132977

OptionProbability

US bombs Iran’s nuclear facility

Iran bomb a gulf country (inclusive of offshore platforms)

UN Security Council proposes a cease-fire resolution

Iran fires missiles that land within 50km of Tel Aviv or Jerusalem

Iranian General killed inside Iran

Donald Trump declares victory

Iranian government official declares victory

China attempts to broker a cease-fire/peace deal

US ally publicy condemns actions of US in regard to conflict

G7 member publicly condemns actions of US in regard to conflict

Trump's June 23 Cease-fire announcement is honored for at least 7 days

Iran imposes a nationwide internet shutdown lasting ≥ 24 hours

War ends in 2025

500+ Iranian civilians killed

US aid to Israel exceeds $17.9 billion for calendar year

Fordow facility successfully bombed

Coverage of ICE protests never recovers following the bombing of Iran's nuclear sites

Israel publicly accused of violating a UN cease-fire resolution by the United Nations or a major international body

Iran is back to negotiations with US about a nuclear deal

Israel confirmed to have deployed troops on Iranian soil

Iran publicly accused of violating a UN cease-fire resolution by the United Nations or a major international body

Natanz Nuclear Facility destroyed

The International Criminal Court opens a formal war-crimes investigation tied to the 2025 Israel-Iran conflict

Israel government dissolves

Iranian national arrested for espionage in USA

Iran launches a cruise missile

At least one UNESCO World Heritage site in Israel or Iran is officially reported damaged by hostilities

Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei replaced for any reason

North Korea provides material support to Iran (weapons, money, etc.)

Iranian government official killed via small arms fire/special operations (not air/drone strike)

A terrorist event planned by Iran in a 3rd country targeting Israelis or Jews is successfully executed (5+ deaths)

Multiple Iranian government members chant "death to [non-NATO country]"

Cease-fire broken by any party, causing conflict to resume

Iranian national arrested for planning/executing terrorism in USA

Cease-fire resolution passed by UN Security Council

A poll indicates US citizen support for involvement of US in conflict is less than 25%

A second cease-fire is announced

Iran seizes a G7-flagged ship in Hormuz

Iran cause a mass casualty event (20+ deaths) by a single missle in Israel

A warship exceeding 1000 tons is sank

USA vetoes a proposed UN cease-fire resolution

Straight of Hormuz is closed for less than 72 hours

Iran officially exits the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty

There is a major Iranian cyberattack against the United States.

Russia delivers S-400 (or better) air defense system to Iran

Major media source (BBC, NYT, Fox, CNN, etc.) refers to American involvement as "Iraq 2.0" or similar

WTI Crude futures reach 90usd/bll (NYME:CL.1)

>=1 USA servicemember killed in connection with this conflict

>=1 USA civilian killed in connection with this conflict

Wikipedia lists Syria as a beligerent for more than 24 hours

USA conducts a second bombing in Iran

A fifth generation fighter jet is destroyed

Hezbollah initiates attacks on Israel (2 or more days of strikes, publicly announced by Hezbollah)

Netanyahu is replaced for any reason (no longer acting prime minister)

Several terrorist attacks on U.S. soil causes casualties ( at least 2 attacks and 1 death)

Turkey invokes NATO Article 4 consultations over the Israel-Iran conflict

Civilian manned aircraft destroyed in Iran, Iraq, Syria, Jordan, or Israel airspace

Iranian government dissolves

Israel uses an EMP or directed energy weapon

Holy sites of Israel are destroyed after the war.

A poll indicates US citizen support for involvement of US in conflict is less than 10%

Tel-aviv stock exchange closes for a full trading day

Iran regime change

War Ends in June

Israel targets Iranian *production* or *export* oriented energy facility (refineries and storage for internal use don’t count)

Iran successfully bomb an Israeli civilian power plant or offshore platform

Russia stations combat jets on Iran soil

UN Security Council passes new Iran arms embargo with no vetoes

Saudi Arabia attacks Iran

Any amount of Israeli Merkava tanks are destroyed

Ayatollah Khamenei dies unnaturally

Iran closes the Strait of Hormuz

Brent crude closes ≥ $130 per barrel before 1 Jan 2026

There is a major foreign or terrorist attack on U.S. soil that kills 100+ people.

Total casualties exceed 10,000

Trump is frustrated that even by bombing another country he still can’t get any woman to find him attractive

War ends in July

Iran tests a nuclear weapon

Transitional Iranian government headed by Reza Pahlavi

State with >250k active military personnel joins war on side of Iran

Qatar attacks Iran

≥ 100 000 people flee Iran into Turkey or Iraq as registered refugees because of the conflict

US invasion (boots on the ground, special forces not included)

Will resolve to the number of days until a ceasefire (max 100). Ceasefire: one airspace is opened (at the very least). Stars June 21 2025

A nuclear weapon is used offensively.

Ayatollah Khamenei Is already dead (June 26)

100

If Russia starts a war against a Baltic state, will the US military engage in combat against the Russian military?

May 20, 7:33 AMJan 27, 10:59 PM

49.18%chance

579586

OptionVotes

YES

1017

984

Will the U.S. invoke the TikTok bill against Twitter?

Mar 26, 1:37 AMJan 21, 5:59 AM

2.27%chance

436790

OptionVotes

YES

3099

1038

If China invades Taiwan will there be direct military involvement from the US by EOY 2030

Apr 9, 8:12 AMDec 31, 12:59 PM

48.33%chance

926251

OptionVotes

YES

2800

1132

By 2050, will autonomous robots completely replace human soldiers in frontline combat roles?⚔️🤖⚔️

Feb 3, 1:28 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

9.56%chance

192233

OptionVotes

YES

1595

851

Will a major world war occur before the end of 2050?

Apr 21, 6:43 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

48.1%chance

472073

OptionVotes

YES

1194

662

By when will the Israel-Iran ceasefire be broken? [Polymarket]

Jun 26, 1:41 AMSep 1, 3:59 AM

19949

OptionProbability

Wednesday, December 31

Friday, October 31

Sunday, August 31

Friday, June 27

Friday, July 11

Thursday, July 31

Will a clash between American and Chinese armed forces result in at least one fatality before 2027?

Oct 24, 7:32 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM

29.88%chance

10229

OptionVotes

YES

159

Will China intervene militarily in Myanmar before 2030?

Nov 10, 2:48 AMJan 1, 3:59 PM

20.51%chance

10221

OptionVotes

YES

164

Will a clash between American and Chinese armed forces result in at least one fatality before 2029?

Oct 24, 7:34 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM

47.7%chance

8200

OptionVotes

YES

113

105

Will a clash between American and Chinese armed forces result in at least one fatality before 2040?

Oct 24, 7:40 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM

78.05%chance

4129

OptionVotes

YES

193

Federal court rules on War Powers Act constitutionality by July 2026?

Jun 24, 8:40 PMJul 1, 10:59 PM

45%chance

327

OptionVotes

YES

111

Ground Forces News

Prediction markets for Ground Forces

Prediction markets for Ground Forces

Prediction markets for Ground Forces

Israel-Iran 2025 war prop bets

If Russia starts a war against a Baltic state, will the US military engage in combat against the Russian military?

Will the U.S. invoke the TikTok bill against Twitter?

If China invades Taiwan will there be direct military involvement from the US by EOY 2030

By 2050, will autonomous robots completely replace human soldiers in frontline combat roles?⚔️🤖⚔️

Will a major world war occur before the end of 2050?

By when will the Israel-Iran ceasefire be broken? [Polymarket]

Will a clash between American and Chinese armed forces result in at least one fatality before 2027?

Will China intervene militarily in Myanmar before 2030?

Will a clash between American and Chinese armed forces result in at least one fatality before 2029?

Will a clash between American and Chinese armed forces result in at least one fatality before 2040?

Federal court rules on War Powers Act constitutionality by July 2026?

Latest stories