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Prediction markets for Group

Linus media group reviews a sex toy.

Jan 9, 4:12 AMJan 2, 4:12 AM

31.48%chance

7512267

OptionVotes

YES

NO

14755

6778

Will China Hongqiao Group's primary aluminum production for calendar year 2027 exceed 6.4 million tonnes?

May 4, 5:53 PMMay 31, 11:59 PM

73.83%chance

710697

OptionVotes

NO

YES

16798

5953

Will China Hongqiao Group's primary aluminum production for calendar year 2028 exceed 6.4 million tonnes?

May 4, 5:53 PMMay 31, 11:59 PM

70.13%chance

610163

OptionVotes

NO

YES

15322

6527

Will a study performed by the Dog Aging Project show a statistically significant effect of rapamycin on lifespan extension between control groups and a treatment group?

Sep 13, 3:36 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

8.47%chance

152439

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2657

111

Will a state actor or other group succeed at stealing GPT-4 model weights by the end of 2026?

Jul 21, 9:05 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

8.29%chance

212311

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2994

1047

Will Lorena Wiebes lose a group sprint before EOY 2027?

Aug 23, 8:01 PMNov 1, 10:59 PM

82.7%chance

61399

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2187

457

Will a paramilitary group form around the anti immigration movement in the UK in the next 6 years?

Aug 14, 12:10 AMDec 21, 11:59 PM

26.98%chance

141180

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1645

608

Will mainstream (online) English use a separate second person group pronoun (y'all, yous, ...) in 2030?

Sep 17, 1:07 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

34.74%chance

18664

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1192

872

Will islamist group(s) take over Pakistan before 2035?

Oct 14, 3:25 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

40.38%chance

9636

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1215

823

Will the Group of Seven (G7) add a country before 2030?

May 21, 7:16 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

53.44%chance

6300

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1071

933

Anti-EV or Pro-ICE vehicle lobbying group at least 1/10 as big as the NRA by 2035

Jun 19, 1:18 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

49.62%chance

12232

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1074

917

Will "AI-enabled coups: a small group could use AI ..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Jun 27, 5:47 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14%chance

114

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1000

1000

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