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Group News

Will the SEC charge Donald Trump with stock manipulation related to DJT (Trump Media & Technology Group) by Dec. 2025?

Sep 17, 6:34 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

2.29%chance

157172

OptionVotes

YES

NO

6529

153

Will any rider finish in the 2025 Tour de France Femmes GC top 5, who was not in the front group on Stage 5?

Jul 30, 8:48 PMAug 3, 11:59 PM

74.94%chance

93845

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1729

578

Was Jeffrey Goldberg deliberately added to the "Houthi PC" Signal group chat?

Mar 24, 9:25 PMJan 3, 11:59 PM

5.61%chance

203766

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4103

244

Will a paramilitary group form around the anti immigration movement in the UK in the next 6 years?

Aug 14, 12:10 AMDec 21, 11:59 PM

26.79%chance

131177

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1653

605

Will mainstream (online) English use a separate second person group pronoun (y'all, yous, ...) in 2030?

Sep 17, 1:07 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

36.37%chance

17613

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1144

899

Will a state actor or other group succeed at stealing GPT-4 model weights by the end of 2026?

Jul 21, 9:05 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

20.47%chance

16527

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1303

1298

Will Group managers ever receive Mana payment for their services?

Jan 8, 7:44 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

24.97%chance

12408

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1319

861

Will Proud Boys, Three Percenters, or members of similar far-right groups kill at least 10 people in the US in 2025?

Nov 7, 9:21 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

37.68%chance

9325

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1286

778

Will a study performed by the Dog Aging Project show a statistically significant effect of rapamycin on lifespan extension between control groups and a treatment group?

Sep 13, 3:36 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

72.64%chance

12318

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1120

938

Will the Group of Seven (G7) add a country before 2030?

May 21, 7:16 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

53.44%chance

6300

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1071

933

Anti-EV or Pro-ICE vehicle lobbying group at least 1/10 as big as the NRA by 2035

Jun 19, 1:18 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

49.62%chance

12232

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1074

917

Will "AI-enabled coups: a small group could use AI ..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Jun 27, 5:47 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14%chance

114

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1000

1000

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