Group Events News

MANA MERCH SHOP: Which designs will be added to the mana merch store?

Oct 22, 8:28 PMFeb 20, 7:40 PM

8433674

OptionProbability

The Manifold Logo

“Anti gambling gambling club” - by andri

Crane Hexes - by Pat Scott

Trustworthy-ish - by Pat Scott

“Put your Mana where your mouth is” - by MIMIR MAGNVS

“This meeting could have been a market” - by andri

“Calibrated measures” - by andri

“ I just lost mana because of that” - by andri

“my waifu / predicts the future" - Pat Scott

“It’s not 🤮crypto🤮 it’s play money” - by andri

Will Bougainville be a country by end of 2027? [Showcase: M$10,000 subsidy]

Jan 22, 5:50 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

35.75%chance

11126648

OptionVotes

YES

17360

3293

Will superposition in transformers be mostly solved by 2026?

Mar 16, 7:31 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

47.36%chance

8918719

OptionVotes

YES

4825

4292

If Eliezer Yudkowsky loses his bet about UFOs not having a worldview-shattering origin, what is the reason why?

Aug 7, 10:27 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

586526

OptionProbability

UFOs are a product of a massive conspiracy unrelated to non-human entities

Aliens

EY's mind changes such that a boring explanation is worldview-shattering

EY suffers severe mental degeneration leading to delusions

Eliezer knows aliens are real and will be disclosed soon. He's rallying people to dump money into a bet he is secretly betting against to teach them about the fallacy of appeal to authority.

Simulation Hypothesis

UFOs are time travelers

Holographic Principle

UFOs are angels

UFOs are psychic manifestations

Other

Demons (as in a traditional Abrahamic religion)

Ultraterrestrials (home-grown, advanced non-human civs, hidden from us)

Idealism (Consciousness underpins physical reality)

UFOs are part of/directed by a superintelligence

AI is harder than practical interstellar travel

UFOs are aliens intentionally both hiding themselves and revealing themselves to sow chaos

UFOs are magic

Will Jacob Pfau think that the Eliciting Latent Knowledge research program has achieved something important by October 20, 2026?

Oct 20, 7:33 PMOct 21, 3:59 AM

31.23%chance

142358

OptionVotes

YES

1627

398

Prediction markets for Group Events

Prediction markets for Group Events

Prediction markets for Group Events

MANA MERCH SHOP: Which designs will be added to the mana merch store?

Will Bougainville be a country by end of 2027? [Showcase: M$10,000 subsidy]

Will superposition in transformers be mostly solved by 2026?

If Eliezer Yudkowsky loses his bet about UFOs not having a worldview-shattering origin, what is the reason why?

Will Jacob Pfau think that the Eliciting Latent Knowledge research program has achieved something important by October 20, 2026?

Will Moltbook be TIME person of the year 2026?

Will it be possible to significantly slow atherosclerosis before 2030?

Will it be possible to significantly slow atherosclerosis before 2032?

Will it be possible to significantly slow atherosclerosis before 2031?

Will Sidemen FC win the Sidemen Charity Match

Will my new MTG format remain alive for the next month?

What will be the next major event for NSO group?

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