Group Nine News

The shooter is alive when this market hits 100 traders

20-27 years old

Has a Reddit, Xitter, or Facebook account

US citizen

Male

Will the shooter of Charlie Kirk be apprehended alive by the end of September?

The shooter killed Charlie Kirk

White

Born in the United States

Lives (or has lived) in Utah

Native English speaker (L1)

used a bolt action rifle

has at least one sibling

at least ten questions in this market resolve YES (excluding questions about other question's resolutions) (excluding N/A)

Is the same person the FBI identified as the “person of interest”

had fired a weapon at least once in their life before shooting Charlie Kirk

disliked Charlie Kirk

Is named Tyler Robinson

“Extremely Online” (market owner’s subjective judgment)

The shooter is a member of domain Eukarya

Resided in the same state as the incident

Firearm used was otherwise lawfully owned under federal and state law

Is a registered voter

Did it on purpose

Skinny

Gamer

wrote reference to furry culture on bullet casing

The shooter is not a extraterrestrial alien

Motivated primarily by political ideology

ectomorph body type

Had bullets with engraved messages on them

He killed Kirk to stop the spread of hatred.

Acted alone (no accomplices)

Current or former LDS Church (mainline Mormon) member

Is left wing

Owns steam profile 76561198159427286

at least a quarter of the questions in this market resolve YES (excluding questions about other question's resolutions) (excluding N/A)

has expressed positive sentiment towards furries

Turns themselves in to the police / FBI

Hunter

Accident please N/A

has purchased furry-related media or items

Will plead guilty

Lesbian, Gay, Bisexual, or Transgender

Avowed left-leaning ideology (broadly construed: Democrat, socialist, communist, Green all count)

Unemployed

iphone user

Has/had a partner named Lance Twiggs

is/was in a sexual relationship with a transwoman

Not a virgin

Purchased and played Furry Shades of Gay on Steam

Owns a car

Lives (or has lived) in the Provo–Orem metropolitan area

legally acquired the gun used to kill Charlie Kirk

has a furaffinity account

actually has an indecipherable ideology rooted deeply within internet culture that doesn’t clearly fall on either side.

Furry

Owns physical furry paraphernalia

Communicated with peers primarily through Discord

extra charges are filed against him based on evidence discovered on his digital devices

Strongly opposes zionism

Inconsistent, incoherent, or idiosyncratic political ideology

is/was in a sexual relationship with a furry transwoman

n/a

There is anecdotal evidence that they have a KiwiFarms account

Dies in prison

Has posted on r/toiletpaperusa

has used the word yiff in written communication

Conspired with an AI chatbot about this

Purposefully waited until Kirk mentioned shootings to fire

Any published writings (including blogs, tweets, etc.) supporting the July 2024 attempted assassination of Donald Trump

Is sentenced to death

had attended any event featuring kirk prior to the one at utah valley university

Kash Patel alludes to his sexual deviancy

Has at least US$5.000 of credit card debt

was prescribed psychiatric medication

has vore kink

Anarchist (self-described; any "anarcho-" label counts)

Went to furry events

cross-dresser

Will kill again (including suicide)

Wrote a manifesto before the shooting

JD Vance alludes to his sexual deviancy

Has a Bluesky account

Elon Musk alludes to his sexual deviancy

White cis-hetero Christian man

Any published writings (including blogs, tweets, etc.) supporting Luigi Mangione

student at any university

Owns a fursuit

is/was in a sexual relationship with a furry

Posted about Charlie Kirk on social media before the shooting

Brony or a fan of My Little Pony

Radical Centrist/JREG fan

Will be convicted by EOY 2025

Has Reddit account with 10k+ karma

Former or current Charlie Kirk fan

Has ADHD

psychedelics user

at least half of the questions in this market resolve YES (excluding questions about other question's resolutions) (excluding N/A)

Contact with CVLT/764/similar

made online adult/sexual content (e.g. onlyfans)

There is a broad consensus that they have a KiwiFarms account

Was on an FBI watchlist

6 ft tall

Had diagnosed mental illness

Will be convicted by EOY 2026

J.K. Rowling alludes to his sexual deviancy

Transgender

Involved in Israel/Palestine activism on either side

Incel

Fan fiction author

Femboy

History of illegal drug addiction

Escapes carceral detention

Was awarded a medal or award for marksmanship at any given point in time

History of domestic violence

has significant student load debt

Owned the firearm used

Any documented connection to O9A (Order of Nine Angles, esoteric right-accelerationst group)

Shooting was motivated by gun legislation in some way

Avowed right-leaning ideology (broadly construed: Republican, MAGA, right-libertarian, neo-Nazi, monarchist all count)

Left-handed

Motivated by personal grudge rather than politics (e.g. sexual jealousy or other personal-life motive)

All questions in this market are resolved before 2026

Had felony conviction previously

Current or former Calvary Chapel or other Pentecostal church member

groyper

Is right wing

Current or previous student at University of Utah

is Mossad

Was a student at UVU

Dead, as of October 10th (or earlier)

Accelerationist (any subtype)

Wanted to create pretext for violence against leftists

Has Twitter account with more than 2000 tweets

White Nationalist

The shooter will read "If Anyone Builds It..." (either while on the run or in custody) and likes the book

Current or former Roman Catholic

Involved in Effective Altruism

Was motivated by the Trump Epstein cover up?

Has a parent who drives for Uber

decel

Will get killed by law enforcement

Was a fan of Charlie Kirk

The shooter is a professional hitman, who does not care much about politics or ideology

Age >= 40 (on the day of the shooting)

Used a handgun

Ex-military

Has a PhD

Has a Manifold account

Muslim

Veteran

History of alcoholism

A time traveller trying to avoid the worst

Will share their first name with a famous video game character

Participates in this market

Teenager

Has a master's degree

Will be apprehended at McDonald's, like Luigi Mangione.

Female Ninja Type Sniper

Is or was a computer science student

is in fact three racoons dressed in a trenchcoat

Ex law enforcement

Married

Parent

Manifold assists with his capture

Meant to hit an apple on Charlie Kirk's head

Had a wikipedia page prior to 9/10/2025

Not arrested before EOY 2025

Fled the country after the shooting

Personally knew Charlie Kirk

Enjoys diplomatic immunity

Indian national

The shooter was an AI or an android controlled by AI

Iranian national

Registered Democrat

used telekinesis to correct the bullet's trajectory

The shooter is a member of domain Bacteria

Not arrested as of midnight EST 9/14

Will be apprehended at a McDonald's

RFK Jr. gets cabinet position or position in any public health department

Flag desecration prohibition passed

Any vaccines banned for any group of people

J6er pardoned

Sports team invited to the white house

A member of Congress is censured or expelled

Mass Deportations

The democrats take control of the house of representatives

Prohibiting or restricting transgender care for adults

A major insider trading scandal linked to the US executive branch

Trump is impeached

Joe Exotic is released from prison

350 million people or more die, according to expert estimates

US punitive expedition in Mexico

Drone strike in Mexico by US

Starlink satellites damaged by US adversary

AGI achieved

100k humanoid robots manufactured

China invades Taiwan

It ends with JD Vance becoming president

Coup attempt in the United States

A human walks on the Moon

Room temperature superconductor discovered

Significant Rogue AI Incident

Supreme Court packing

Nuclear weapon detonation

The Senate eliminates the filibuster

Elon Musk is arrested for treason

Eagles three-peat

Tulsi Gabbard is arrested for treason

Any part of Greenland becomes de facto US territory (excludes military bases)

US military intervention on Canadian territory

Donald Trump reelected President

22nd amendment repealed or interpreted to only apply to consecutive terms

Largest solar flare since Carrington Event

YES