Group Pão de Açúcar News

Will Ghent fire Nathan Cofnas before 2028?

Aug 20, 6:05 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

16.86%chance

3714974

OptionVotes

YES

2220

450

Predictions about Syria in 2026

Dec 9, 10:54 PMJan 1, 2:59 AM

393903

OptionProbability

Will Syria be Democratic?

Will Syria be Secular?

Will Syria experience a genocide?

Will Syria be split into more than one state/nation?

Will any American state start a transgender suppression program by 2033?

May 3, 5:03 PMJan 3, 10:59 PM

44.78%chance

473044

OptionVotes

YES

984

961

What civil time system will be used on Mars?

Jan 10, 1:11 AMJan 1, 12:59 PM

262000

OptionProbability

A day will be 24 hours, 39 minutes and 35.244 SI seconds long

Other

A day will be 24h×60m×60s using a "mars second" equal to 1.0275 SI seconds.

A day will be 24h×60m×60s where a "second" is a unit of angle rather than time, equal to 1/86400 of a revolution w.r.t the sun (i.e. the equivalent of Earth's UT1, this is called "Coordinated Mars Time")

A day will be 24h×60m×60s using SI seconds (and will drift with respect to mean solar time by ~40 minutes a day)

Time of day will be an incrementing number of SI seconds from 0 to 88775.244 (possibly rounded to an integer, with leap-seconds every 4 days or whatever, or no leap seconds and allowing it to drift)

Will pro-Russian armed groups take control of a government building in any Baltic city or town by November 30, 2026?

Aug 27, 6:15 AMNov 30, 10:00 PM

9%chance

81182

OptionVotes

YES

318

9. One of the large global pharma companies will acquire one of the leading protein AI startups.

Dec 28, 11:36 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

37.15%chance

81153

OptionVotes

YES

1303

770

Will Maduro escape prosecution through a deal with the US government?

Jan 3, 7:44 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

20.36%chance

16515

OptionVotes

YES

198

When will the government led by Bart De Wever end?

Mar 28, 2:57 PMJun 9, 10:00 PM

2492

OptionProbability

Before National Elections (May or June 2029)

Before January 2029

Before July 2027

Before January 2028

Before July 2028

Before January 2027

Before July 2026

Which one of these ex-LOONA kpop acts will be the first to get a win on a music show?

Apr 2, 7:17 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

11438

OptionProbability

ARTMS

Chuu

Yves

Other

Loossemble

Will kissing in public be allowed in Dubai by 2030? (at least partially)

Aug 24, 12:25 PMJan 1, 8:59 PM

54.52%chance

3199

OptionVotes

YES

1095

913

Will Facebook users with de-personalized ads have better consumer outcomes?

Feb 24, 8:07 PMMar 4, 7:59 AM

45.93%chance

5175

OptionVotes

YES

108

Will Geert Wilders remain the sole registered member of the PVV (Partij voor de Vrijheid) until EOY 2035?

Jul 28, 9:35 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

58.06%chance

441

OptionVotes

YES

1033

953

Group Pão de Açúcar News

Prediction markets for Group Pão de Açúcar

Prediction markets for Group Pão de Açúcar

Prediction markets for Group Pão de Açúcar

Will Ghent fire Nathan Cofnas before 2028?

Predictions about Syria in 2026

Will any American state start a transgender suppression program by 2033?

What civil time system will be used on Mars?

Will pro-Russian armed groups take control of a government building in any Baltic city or town by November 30, 2026?

9. One of the large global pharma companies will acquire one of the leading protein AI startups.

Will Maduro escape prosecution through a deal with the US government?

When will the government led by Bart De Wever end?

Which one of these ex-LOONA kpop acts will be the first to get a win on a music show?

Will kissing in public be allowed in Dubai by 2030? (at least partially)

Will Facebook users with de-personalized ads have better consumer outcomes?

Will Geert Wilders remain the sole registered member of the PVV (Partij voor de Vrijheid) until EOY 2035?

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