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Prediction markets for Grow the Majority

Will a fully synthetic, functional multicellular organism be created before January 1st, 2040?

Mar 17, 3:02 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

27.44%chance

839820

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2695

815

EU ends unanimous decision-making by EOY 2035?

Jul 14, 12:53 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

16.17%chance

101697

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2277

439

Will OpenAI become nothing by 2030?

May 18, 7:46 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

221622

OptionProbability

The scandal is forgotten without major change

OpenAI significantly changes their NDA policy

Sam Altman stops being CEO of OpenAI

The government takes action against OpenAI

OpenAI as an organization disintegrates into irrelevancy

The NDAs grow into a major popular backlash against OpenAI

64

61

60

58

39

20

Will Germany‘s economy (real GDP) grow in 2025?

Jan 16, 6:37 PMJan 31, 12:00 AM

63.72%chance

201481

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1063

852

Will a major tech company (Apple, Google, Microsoft, or Meta) acquire a neurotech startup in 2025?

Mar 8, 11:53 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

54.99%chance

15845

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1105

905

Will Major Copyright Reforms Affecting AI-Generated Works Be Enacted by 2026?

Nov 13, 7:47 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

64.18%chance

9660

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1339

747

2x2: Will Labour get a majority, Will fast-growng broiler chickens still be legal by the end of the parlaiment?

Dec 20, 4:04 PMDec 27, 11:59 PM

7527

OptionProbability

Labour Majority, Fast-growing chickens legal

Labour Majority, Fast-growing chickens illegal

Not Labour Majority, Fast-growing chickens legal

Not Labour Majority, Fast-growing chickens illegal

52

46

1

1

Which superhero movie released between 4/1 and 9/1, 2025 will earn the highest Superhero Success Score (SSS)?

Apr 2, 1:16 AMOct 1, 11:59 PM

9509

OptionProbability

Superman (2025)

Fantastic Four: First Steps

Thunderbolts*

78

20

2

Red Scare podcast hosts interview a major political figure before September 1, 2025

Mar 12, 12:21 PMSep 1, 12:00 AM

69.84%chance

7130

OptionVotes

NO

YES

251

166

Major climate relocation policy announced by EOY2025?

Jun 6, 12:36 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

17.49%chance

5120

OptionVotes

YES

NO

223

48

Will China Host a MLB World Tour Event before 2040?

Apr 12, 6:25 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

41.67%chance

220

OptionVotes

YES

NO

160

123

Reliable Commercial Roof Repairs & Metal Roofers

Aug 2, 9:17 AMDec 31, 9:16 AM

44.8%chance

111

OptionVotes

YES

NO

111

90

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