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Prediction markets for Growth Fund

Will GiveWell fund probiotic supplementation for preterm newborns by 1st January 2027?

Dec 17, 4:42 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

8.94%chance

2013543

OptionVotes

YES

NO

13569

1337

When will Anduril Industries IPO?

May 29, 11:56 AMDec 31, 12:55 PM

216492

OptionProbability

Q2 2027

Q3 2027

2028 or later

Q1 2027

Q4 2027

Anduril will not IPO

Q4 2026

Q3 2025

Q4 2025

Q1 2026

Q2 2026

Q3 2026

24

20

20

10

10

7

5

1

1

1

1

1

Will "Rail Baltica" be operational by mid-2030?

May 21, 10:38 AMJul 1, 8:59 PM

11.12%chance

235262

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2144

735

What will be the final net IRR for Warburg Pincus Global Growth 14? (X100)

Dec 2, 8:28 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

72.71%chance

112191

OptionProbability

NO

YES

1183

892

Will Mexico's real GDP grow by at least 1.6% in 2026?

Apr 6, 6:59 AMJan 1, 12:00 AM

20.23%chance

132165

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2035

372

What will be the final net IRR for Carlyle Partners VIII? (X100)

Dec 2, 7:45 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

62.59%chance

52033

OptionProbability

NO

YES

409

269

Will annual U.S. debt interest payments exceed 20% of federal budget revenue by 2028?

May 29, 1:39 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

55.99%chance

12961

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1128

887

Will Perplexity become profitable by EOY 2027?

May 19, 12:31 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

15.27%chance

9157

OptionVotes

YES

NO

236

42

Will the USG centralize frontier AI development in a single government project?

Nov 19, 2:42 PMDec 21, 4:59 AM

56.4%chance

5142

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1137

879

Will GoodWager.bet have more than 350 MAU by EOY 2026?

Jan 14, 6:55 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

76.21%chance

3106

OptionVotes

NO

YES

396

250

Will GiveWell fund/recommend cash grants to high-growth microentrepreneurs by January 2028?

Jan 14, 10:25 PMJan 20, 11:59 PM

25.42%chance

994

OptionVotes

YES

NO

251

159

Will Rio Tinto RTIT Sc2O3 output for 6 months ending September 2026 exceed 3000 kg?

Mar 30, 10:02 PMDec 31, 5:00 AM

31.99%chance

385

OptionVotes

YES

NO

109

95

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