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Prediction markets for Growth Fund

Harvey AI publicly announces $200M+ ARR by EOY2026?

Aug 3, 11:23 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

77.6%chance

2019659

OptionVotes

NO

YES

18647

5382

Will GiveWell fund Mass distribution of azithromycin to reduce child mortality by 1st January 2027?

Dec 17, 4:17 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

26.08%chance

188507

OptionVotes

YES

NO

6378

3288

Will GiveWell fund probiotic supplementation for preterm newborns by 1st January 2027?

Dec 17, 4:42 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

29.71%chance

156504

OptionVotes

YES

NO

6529

2770

Will "Rail Baltica" be operational by mid-2030?

May 21, 10:38 AMJul 1, 8:59 PM

11.78%chance

235162

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2044

748

What will be the final net IRR for Warburg Pincus Global Growth 14? (X100)

Dec 2, 8:28 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

72.71%chance

112191

OptionProbability

NO

YES

1183

892

Google, Amazon, Meta & Microsoft Total Capex for 2027

Feb 7, 2:09 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

61021

OptionProbability

800 Billion +

600-800 Billion

400-599 Billion

>400 Billion

48

37

8

7

Will annual U.S. debt interest payments exceed 20% of federal budget revenue by 2028?

May 29, 1:39 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

55.55%chance

11951

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1118

895

Will AI Cause a 10x Surge in Lawsuits or Legal Industry GDP by 2033?

Apr 7, 6:43 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

20.24%chance

12734

OptionVotes

NO

YES

121

111

Will the USG centralize frontier AI development in a single government project?

Nov 19, 2:42 PMDec 21, 4:59 AM

56.51%chance

4140

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1140

877

Will GiveWell fund/recommend cash grants to high-growth microentrepreneurs by January 2028?

Jan 14, 10:25 PMJan 20, 11:59 PM

25.42%chance

994

OptionVotes

YES

NO

251

159

India touches 5 trillion dollar GDP in 2027?

Jul 1, 3:16 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

31%chance

584

OptionVotes

YES

NO

149

67

Will Bolivia go through two or more years of negative economic growth by EOY 2030?

May 30, 5:09 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

59.38%chance

240

OptionVotes

NO

YES

121

83

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