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Prediction markets for Growth Fund

Will GiveWell fund Mass distribution of azithromycin to reduce child mortality by 1st January 2027?

Dec 17, 4:17 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

19.82%chance

1910007

OptionVotes

YES

NO

7878

2845

Will GiveWell fund probiotic supplementation for preterm newborns by 1st January 2027?

Dec 17, 4:42 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

26.41%chance

187062

OptionVotes

YES

NO

7087

2553

Will "Rail Baltica" be operational by mid-2030?

May 21, 10:38 AMJul 1, 8:59 PM

11.12%chance

235262

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2144

735

What will be the final net IRR for Warburg Pincus Global Growth 14? (X100)

Dec 2, 8:28 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

72.71%chance

112191

OptionProbability

NO

YES

1183

892

What will be the final net IRR for Carlyle Partners VIII? (X100)

Dec 2, 7:45 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

62.59%chance

52033

OptionProbability

NO

YES

409

269

Will Mexico's real GDP grow by at least 1.6% in 2026?

Apr 6, 6:59 AMJan 1, 12:00 AM

26.04%chance

121612

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1773

450

Will annual U.S. debt interest payments exceed 20% of federal budget revenue by 2028?

May 29, 1:39 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

55.99%chance

12961

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1128

887

Will Perplexity become profitable by EOY 2027?

May 19, 12:31 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

15.27%chance

9157

OptionVotes

YES

NO

236

42

Will the USG centralize frontier AI development in a single government project?

Nov 19, 2:42 PMDec 21, 4:59 AM

56.4%chance

5142

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1137

879

Will GiveWell fund/recommend cash grants to high-growth microentrepreneurs by January 2028?

Jan 14, 10:25 PMJan 20, 11:59 PM

25.42%chance

994

OptionVotes

YES

NO

251

159

Will Rio Tinto RTIT Sc2O3 output for 6 months ending September 2026 exceed 3000 kg?

Mar 30, 10:02 PMDec 31, 5:00 AM

41.24%chance

260

OptionVotes

NO

YES

110

84

Will VCX (Fundrise Growth Tech Fund) end the year below $200

Jun 3, 5:25 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

50%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

100

100

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