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Prediction markets for Growth Fund

5. Multiple serious efforts to put AI data centers in space will take shape.

Dec 27, 8:16 AMJan 3, 10:59 PM

70.31%chance

11853527

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1539

650

Will GiveWell fund Mass distribution of azithromycin to reduce child mortality by 1st January 2027?

Dec 17, 4:17 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

26.08%chance

188507

OptionVotes

YES

NO

6378

3288

Will GiveWell fund probiotic supplementation for preterm newborns by 1st January 2027?

Dec 17, 4:42 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

29.71%chance

156504

OptionVotes

YES

NO

6529

2770

Will "Rail Baltica" be operational by mid-2030?

May 21, 10:38 AMJul 1, 8:59 PM

11.73%chance

225161

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2052

747

Harvey AI publicly announces $200M+ ARR by EOY2026?

Aug 3, 11:23 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

34.13%chance

44475

OptionVotes

YES

NO

13891

7199

Which industries of the US stock market will outperform the SPDR S&P 500 Trust in 2025?

Jan 1, 9:04 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

142852

OptionProbability

Metals & Mining (XME)

Semiconductor (XSD)

Telecom (XTL)

Aerospace & Defense (XAR)

Biotech (XBI)

Pharmaceuticals (XPH)

Health Care Services (XHS)

Banks (KBE)

Capital Markets (KCE)

Homebuilders (XHB)

Insurance (KIE)

Retail (XRT)

Regional Banking (KRE)

Oil & Gas Equipment & Services (XES)

Oil & Gas Exploration & Production (XOP)

Software & Services (XSW)

Health Care Equipment (XHE)

Transportation (XTN)

96

93

92

91

82

80

73

25

25

25

25

25

24

20

20

20

15

13

What will be the final net IRR for Warburg Pincus Global Growth 14? (X100)

Dec 2, 8:28 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

72.71%chance

112191

OptionProbability

NO

YES

1183

892

Will annual U.S. debt interest payments exceed 20% of federal budget revenue by 2028?

May 29, 1:39 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

55.55%chance

11951

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1118

895

Will the USG centralize frontier AI development in a single government project?

Nov 19, 2:42 PMDec 21, 4:59 AM

56.51%chance

4140

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1140

877

Will GiveWell fund/recommend cash grants to high-growth microentrepreneurs by January 2028?

Jan 14, 10:25 PMJan 20, 11:59 PM

25.42%chance

994

OptionVotes

YES

NO

251

159

India touches 5 trillion dollar GDP in 2027?

Jul 1, 3:16 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

35.61%chance

348

OptionVotes

YES

NO

134

74

Is Jose Luis Ricon FUNNIER than JOSCHA BACH, jose luis ricon, razib khan, @repligate/janus , alexey guzey, qiaochu yuan?

May 2, 4:30 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

40.19%chance

122

OptionVotes

YES

NO

122

82

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