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Prediction markets for Growth Fund

Harvey AI publicly announces $200M+ ARR by EOY2026?

Aug 3, 11:23 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

80.09%chance

2321124

OptionVotes

NO

YES

20092

4995

Will Africa be a global power house in the nest few months

Mar 14, 4:20 PMJun 30, 2:01 PM

14%chance

389541

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2478

403

Will GiveWell fund Mass distribution of azithromycin to reduce child mortality by 1st January 2027?

Dec 17, 4:17 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

26.08%chance

188507

OptionVotes

YES

NO

6378

3288

Will GiveWell fund probiotic supplementation for preterm newborns by 1st January 2027?

Dec 17, 4:42 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

29.71%chance

156504

OptionVotes

YES

NO

6529

2770

Will "Rail Baltica" be operational by mid-2030?

May 21, 10:38 AMJul 1, 8:59 PM

11.78%chance

235162

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2044

748

What will be the final net IRR for Warburg Pincus Global Growth 14? (X100)

Dec 2, 8:28 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

72.71%chance

112191

OptionProbability

NO

YES

1183

892

Will Mexico's real GDP grow by at least 1.6% in 2026?

Apr 6, 6:59 AMJan 1, 12:00 AM

50.62%chance

10972

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1133

838

Will annual U.S. debt interest payments exceed 20% of federal budget revenue by 2028?

May 29, 1:39 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

55.55%chance

11951

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1118

895

When will Anduril Industries IPO?

May 29, 11:56 AMDec 31, 12:55 PM

5787

OptionProbability

Q2 2027

Q4 2026

Q3 2026

Q3 2027

Q1 2027

Q2 2026

Q4 2027

2028 or later

Anduril will not IPO

Q3 2025

Q4 2025

Q1 2026

24

20

15

14

9

4

4

4

4

1

1

1

Will the USG centralize frontier AI development in a single government project?

Nov 19, 2:42 PMDec 21, 4:59 AM

56.51%chance

4140

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1140

877

Will GiveWell fund/recommend cash grants to high-growth microentrepreneurs by January 2028?

Jan 14, 10:25 PMJan 20, 11:59 PM

25.42%chance

994

OptionVotes

YES

NO

251

159

Will Bolivia go through two or more years of negative economic growth by EOY 2030?

May 30, 5:09 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

59.38%chance

240

OptionVotes

NO

YES

121

83

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