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Prediction markets for GRU

What is going on with David Grusch's UFO claims?

Sep 18, 12:45 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

12977307

OptionProbability

Massive fraud

Multiple counts of perjury

Advanced human technology

Non-human intelligence

36

31

23

9

Is Whistleblower David Charles Grusch Telling The Truth About Non-Human Craft Recoveries?

Jun 6, 1:12 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

8.73%chance

183089

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1442

916

What psychological mechanism is behind David Grusch's claims?

Sep 22, 5:27 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

312121

OptionProbability

He's telling the truth about his experiences

He's lying

He's delusional

46

30

25

Prince Grus Stock

May 12, 11:03 PMMay 13, 3:59 AM

111792

OptionProbability

NO

YES

199

163

When will Tyler Cowen have David Grusch as the guest on an episode of Conversations with Tyler?

Nov 29, 3:17 PMDec 6, 3:59 PM

61519

OptionProbability

Other

1Q 2025

2Q 2025

4Q 2024

3Q 2023

1Q 2024

2Q 2024

3Q 2024

34

25

22

15

1

1

1

1

Would any of these be the accepted explanation for one of the pentagon UFO videos / david grusch's claims by 2028?

Oct 29, 7:33 AMJan 1, 6:14 PM

10550

OptionProbability

Natural phenomena

Faked evidence / false testimony

Failure of detection equipment

Advanced and secret human technology

Previously unknown other species inhabitants of earth

Non human intelligence from outer space / other dimensions

61

61

56

52

16

8

Will James Grugett be diagnosed with plasticosis by EOY2039?

Sep 21, 5:27 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

9.43%chance

2210

OptionVotes

YES

NO

310

32

Will Dieter Schwarz (owner of Schwarz Gruppe) be charged with a serious crime before 2030?

May 21, 2:47 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

5.8%chance

2188

OptionVotes

YES

NO

258

29

Grue vs. Bleen (permanent stock)

Mar 25, 3:19 AMAug 11, 9:43 PM

886

OptionProbability

NO

YES

179

162

Will Predrag Gruevski's Trustfall be able to query all content on manifold.markets by EOY 2026?

Mar 4, 1:14 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

62.83%chance

130

OptionVotes

NO

YES

150

97

Have you ever placed a door dash, uber eats or grubhub order?

Jan 19, 2:25 AM

120

"Prediction Markets Will Save the World" by James Grugett - Discussion

Oct 4, 5:12 PM

00

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